Climate change and climate variability drive rapid glacier melt and snowpack loss, extreme precipitation and temperature events, and alteration of water availability in the Himalayas. There is increasing observational evidence of climate change impacts on water resource availability and agricultural productivity in the central Himalayan region. Here, we assess the farmers’ perception of climate change and its impacts on agriculture in western Nepal. We interviewed 554 households and conducted eight focus group discussions to collect farmers’ perceptions of temperature and rainfall characteristics, water availability, onset and duration of different seasons, and the impacts of such changes on their lives and livelihoods. Our results indicate that the farmers’ perceptions of rising annual and summer temperatures are consistent with observations. Perception, however, contradicts observed trends in winter temperature, as well as annual, monsoon, and winter precipitation. In addition, farmers are increasingly facing incidences of extreme events, including rainfall, floods, landslides, and droughts. These hazards often impact agricultural production, reducing household income and exacerbating the economic impacts on subsistence farmers. Integrated assessment of farmers’ perceptions and hydrometeorological observations is crucial to improving climate change impact assessment and informing the design of mitigation and adaptation strategies.
Reconstructed historical streamflow time series can supplement limited streamflow gauge observations. However, there are common challenges of typical modeling approaches: process‐based hydrologic models can be data/computation‐intensive, and statistics‐based models can be region/stream‐specific. Here we present a nationally scalable modeling framework integrating the simulated runoff from the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model with the Routing Application for Parallel computatIon of Discharge (RAPID) routing model leveraging high‐performance computing. We demonstrate an efficient method of assimilating streamflow at US Geological Survey (USGS) streamflow monitoring sites using a simple hierarchical approach in the VIC‐RAPID framework. The result is a reconstructed 36‐year (1980–2015) daily and monthly streamflow dataset (Dayflow) at ∼2.7 million NHDPlusV2 stream reaches in the conterminous US (CONUS). We perform a comprehensive evaluation at 7,526 USGS sites and characterize their error statistics. The results demonstrate that 49% of the USGS sites demonstrate Kling–Gupta Efficiency (KGE) > 0.5 and 58% of the sites show percentage bias within ±20% for the daily naturalized streamflow. Streamflow data assimilation across CONUS shows an overall improvement over naturalized streamflow, notably in the western semiarid‐to‐arid regions. Comparison to other national and global streamflow reanalysis datasets such as the National Water Model and Global Reach‐scale A priori Discharge Estimates for SWOT demonstrates improved KGE, reduced bias, and directions for Dayflow improvements. Investigations of error statistics with key hydrologic, hydroclimatic, and geomorphologic basin characteristics reveal region‐specific patterns which may help improve future framework applications. Overall, Dayflow may enable a better understanding of hydrologic conditions in a changing environment, especially in locations currently not represented by streamflow monitoring networks.
River flow exhibits morphological changes over time. The shifting of river channels is a common natural phenomenon which often poses risk to life and property. Channel shifting is mostly associated with weak geology, extreme floods, and land cover alterations. Here we assess the changing morphology of the largest depositional landform in Nepal, called the Karnali Megafan, over the period of 1977–2013. We applied geographic information system (GIS) and remote sensing techniques to analyse the spatiotemporal changes in the Karnali Megafan. We obtained historical channel information from Landsat Operational Land Imager (OLI) and the Thermal InfraRed Sensor (TRIS) satellite image, Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+), Thematic Mapper (TM) and Multispectral Scanner (MSS) for years 1977, 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2013. The channel shifting depicts a generally increasing trend in the right branch while the trend is less prominent in the left branch. We find that the extreme rainfall and flooding contribute to channel shifting in the Karnali Megafan. This study identifies the channel shifting spatiotemporal trends along the Karnali Megafan and are of practical use in developing and implementing appropriate river management strategies.
19 December 2019 in Jawra Journal of the American Water Resources Association