A total of more than 27 million confirmed cases of the novel coronavirus outbreak, also known as COVID-19, have been reported as of September 7, 2020. To reduce its transmission, a number of strategies have been proposed. In this study, mathematical models with nonpharmaceutical and pharmaceutical interventions were formulated and analyzed. The first model was formulated without the inclusion of community awareness. The analysis focused on investigating the mathematical behavior of the model, which can explain how medical masks, medical treatment, and rapid testing can be used to suppress the spread of COVID-19. In the second model, community awareness was taken into account, and all the interventions considered were represented as time-dependent parameters. Using the center-manifold theorem, we showed that both models exhibit forward bifurcation. The infection parameters were obtained by fitting the model to COVID-19 incidence data from three provinces in Indonesia, namely, Jakarta, West Java, and East Java. Furthermore, a global sensitivity analysis was performed to identify the most influential parameters on the number of new infections and the basic reproduction number. We found that the use of medical masks has the greatest effect in determining the number of new infections. The optimal control problem from the second model was characterized using the well-known Pontryagin's maximum principle and solved numerically. The results of a cost-effectiveness analysis showed that community awareness plays a crucial role in determining the success of COVID-19 eradication programs.

This article aims to apply a mathematical model to investigate the spread of malaria by considering vector bias, saturated treatment, and an optimal control approach. A mathematical analysis of the equilibrium points and an investigation of the basic reproduction number show that if the basic reproduction number (R0) is less than one, the disease-free equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable. Furthermore, the center-manifold theory is applied to analyze the stability of the endemic equilibrium when R0=1. We find that our model performs a backward bifurcation phenomenon when the saturated treatment or vector bias parameter is larger than the threshold. Interestingly, we found that uncontrolled fumigation could increase the chance of the appearance of backward bifurcation. From the sensitivity analysis of R0, we find that the fumigation and vector bias are the most influential parameters for determining the magnitude of R0. Using the Pontryagin maximum principle, the optimal control problem is constructed by treating fumigation and medical treatment parameters as the time-dependent variable. Our numerical results on the optimal control simulation suggest that time-dependent fumigation and medical treatment could suppress the spread of malaria more efficiently at minimum cost.

Objective: Several essential factors have played a crucial role in the spreading mechanism of COVID-19 (Coronavirus disease 2019) in the human population. These factors include undetected cases, asymptomatic cases, and several non-pharmaceutical interventions. Because of the rapid spread of COVID-19 worldwide, understanding the significance of these factors is crucial in determining whether COVID-19 will be eradicated or persist in the population. Hence, in this study, we establish a new mathematical model to predict the spread of COVID-19 considering mentioned factors.Results: Infection detection and vaccination have the potential to eradicate COVID-19 from Jakarta. From the sensitivity analysis, we find that rapid testing is crucial in reducing the basic reproduction number when COVID-19 is endemic in the population rather than contact trace. Furthermore, our results indicate that a vaccination strategy has the potential to relax social distancing rules, while maintaining the basic reproduction number at the minimum possible, and also eradicate COVID-19 from the population with a higher vaccination rate. In conclusion, our model proposed a mathematical model that can be used by Jakarta’s government to relax social distancing policy by relying on future COVID-19 vaccine potential.