Quantifying phenotypic evolutionary rates and their variation across phylogenetic trees is a major issue in evolutionary biology. A number of phylogenetic comparative methods (PCMs) currently perform such task. However, available PCMs can locate rate shifts pertaining to entire portions of the phylogeny, but not those expected to occur at the level of individual species and lineages, such as with the idea that body size changes more rapidly in insular vertebrates. Still, most PCMs cannot deal with fossil phylogenies, albeit fossils provide highly desirable information when it comes to understand trait variation and evolution. We developed a PCM based on phylogenetic ridge regression, which we named RRphylo, which assigns an evolutionary rate to each branch of the phylogeny, and is designed to locate rate shifts relating to entire clades, as well as to unrelated tree tips. We tested RRphylo on simulated trees and data to assess its performance under different conditions. Then, we repeated its application with two real case scenarios, the evolution of flight in ornithodirans and mammals and body size evolution in insular mammals, which are usually subsumed to evolve under different range regimes than terrestrial and continental species respectively. RR phylo performs well across all different conditions. The simulation experiments demonstrated it has low Type I and Type II error rate. We found significant evidence that flight accelerates the rate of body size evolution in vertebrates, and that the acquisition of very large body size slows down the rate. Still, insular mammals body size evolution is not faster than in continental species. RR phylo is a new PCM ideal to estimate variation and shift in the rate of phenotypic evolution with fossil data. In addition to testing evolutionary rate variation, it is open to a variety of further questions, such as the evolution of rates in time, the estimation of ancestral states and the estimation of phenotypic trends over time.

Aim: The establishment and spread of invasive alien species may be influenced by several mutually interacting factors, whose understanding is paramount to develop effective biosecurity policies. However, studies focused on modelling spatially explicit patterns of future invasion risk have so far focused on species response to climate change impacts, while land‐use change has been neglected. We investigated how the interplay between climate and land‐use change could affect the future potential distribution and dispersal corridors of four alien squirrels introduced to Europe (Sciurus carolinensis, Callosciurus finlaysonii, Callosciurus erythraeus and Eutamias sibiricus).Location and Methods: Our study was conducted in Italy. We used Species Distribution Models and circuit theory methods to test whether future scenarios based only on climate change predict a different effect on range and connectivity of alien squirrel populations, compared to scenarios that include both climate and land‐use changes.Results: Scenarios based only on climate change predicted a range increase and a high geographic stability (>50%) for most species, with different, yet limited, effects on connectivity corridors. Conversely, scenarios based on both climate and land‐use change showed a loss in range extent and a low geographic stability (<50%) of both range and dispersal corridors for most species.Main conclusions: Scenarios considering both climate and land‐use change provide predictions on invasion risk that overturn those including only climate change. The effect of global warming alone would lead to a considerable range expansion of all species. Conversely, when land‐use change is added, a potential loss in suitable habitat and dispersal corridors is predicted for alien squirrels, hence limiting their range expansion. We recommend using multiple drivers in models to obtain reliable predictions for implementing biosecurity policies related to invasive alien species.