We find evidence that black soot aerosols deposited on Tibetan glaciers have been a significant contributing factor to observed rapid glacier retreat. Reduced black soot emissions, in addition to reduced greenhouse gases, may be required to avoid demise of Himalayan glaciers and retain the benefits of glaciers for seasonal fresh water supplies.

Meteorological observations over the Tibetan Plateau (TiP) are scarce, and precipitation estimations over this remote region are difficult. The constantly improving capabilities of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models offer the opportunity to reduce this problem by providing precipitation fields and other meteorological variables of high spatial and temporal resolution. Longer time periods of years to decades can be simulated by NWP models by successive model runs of shorter periods, which can be described by the term "regional atmospheric reanalysis". In this paper, we assess the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) models capacity in retrieving rain- and snowfall on the TiP in such a configuration using a nested approach: the simulations are conducted with three nested domains at spatial resolutions of 30, 10, and 2 km. A validation study is carried out for a one-month period with a special focus on one-week (22–28 October 2008), during which strong rain- and snowfall was observed on the TiP. The output of the model in each resolution is compared to the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) data set for precipitation and to the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data set for snow extent. TRMM and WRF data are then compared to weather-station measurements. Our results suggest an overall improvement from WRF over TRMM with respect to weather-station measurements. Various configurations of the model with different nesting and forcing strategies, as well as physical parameterisation schemes are compared to propose a suitable design for a regional atmospheric reanalysis over the TiP. The WRF model showed good accuracy in simulating snow- and rainfall on the TiP for a one-month simulation period. Our study reveals that there is nothing like an optimal model strategy applicable for the high-altitude TiP, its fringing high-mountain areas of extremely complex topography and the low-altitude land and sea regions from which much of the precipitation on the TiP is originating. The choice of the physical parameterisation scheme will thus be always a compromise depending on the specific purpose of a model simulation. Our study demonstrates the high importance of orographic precipitation, but the problem of the orographic bias remains unsolved since reliable observational data are still missing. The results are relevant for anyone interested in carrying out a regional atmospheric reanalysis. Many hydrological analyses and applications like rainfall-runoff modelling or the analysis of flood events require precipitation rates at daily or even hourly intervals. Thus, our study offers a process-oriented alternative for retrieving precipitation fields of high spatio-temporal resolution in regions like the TiP, where other data sources are limited.

Based on glaciometeorological measurements and mass balance stake records during the 5 year period of 2005–2010 on the southeast Tibetan Plateau, an energy‐mass balance model was applied to study the surface mass balance of the Parlung No. 94 Glacier, as well as its response to regional climate conditions. The primary physical parameters involved in the model were locally calibrated by using relevant glaciometeorological data sets. The good agreement between the snowpack height/mass balance simulations and the in situ measurements available from a total of 12 monitoring stakes over this glacier confirmed the satisfactory performance of the energy‐mass balance model. Results suggested that the recent state of the Parlung No. 94 Glacier was far removed from the “ideal” climatic regime leading to zero mass balance, with its annual mass balance of approximately −0.9 m water equivalent during 2005–2010. Climatic sensitivity experiments were also carried out to interpret the observed mass balance changes, and the experiments demonstrated that the maritime glaciers concerned herein were theoretically more vulnerable to ongoing climate warming on the Tibetan Plateau than potential changes in the amount of precipitation. A plausible causal explanation for the recent glacier shrinkage in this region was concerned with the increasing air temperature. Moreover, both the mass balance simulations and the field measurements indicated that the mass accumulation over this maritime glacier occurred primarily in the boreal spring. Such “spring‐accumulation type” glaciers are presumed to be distributed mainly within a narrow wedge‐shaped region along the Brahmaputra River. Climatic sensitivities of the glacier mass balance are also found to be closely linked to the regional precipitation seasonality that is simultaneously modulated by various atmospheric circulation patterns, such as the southern westerlies, the Bay of Bengal vortex in the spring season, and the Indian monsoon in the summer season.

Determinations of glacier-wide mass and energy balance are still scarce for the remote mountains of the Tibetan Plateau, where field measurements are challenging. Here we run and evaluate a physical, distributed mass balance model for Zhadang Glacier (central Tibet, 30° N) based on in-situ measurements over 2009–2011 and an uncertainty estimate by Monte Carlo and ensemble strategies. The model application aims to provide the first quantification of how the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) impacts an entire glacier over the various stages of the monsoon's annual cycle. We find a strong and systematic ISM footprint on the interannual scale. Early (late) monsoon onset causes higher (lower) accumulation, and reduces (increases) the available energy for ablation primarily through changes in absorbed shortwave radiation. By contrast, only a weak footprint exists in the ISM cessation phase. Most striking though is the core monsoon season: local mass and energy balance variability is fully decoupled from the active/break cycle that defines large-scale atmospheric variability during the ISM. Our results demonstrate quantitatively that monsoon onset strongly affects the ablation season of glaciers in Tibet. However, we find no direct ISM impact on the glacier in the main monsoon season, which has not been acknowledged so far. This result also adds cryospheric evidence that, once the monsoon is in full swing, regional atmospheric variability prevails on the Tibetan Plateau in summer.