The memory timescale that characterizes root‐zone soil moisture remains the dominant measure in seasonal forecasts of land‐climate interactions. This memory is a quasi‐deterministic timescale associated with the losses (e.g., evapotranspiration) from the soil column and is often interpreted as persistence in soil moisture states. Persistence, however, represents a distribution of time periods where soil moisture resides above or below some prescribed threshold and is therefore inherently probabilistic. Using multiple soil moisture data sets collected at high resolution (subhourly) across different biomes and climates, this paper explores the differences, underlying dynamics, and relative importance of memory and persistence timescales in root‐zone soil moisture. A first‐order Markov process, commonly used to interpret soil moisture fluctuations derived from climate simulations, is also used as a reference model. Persistence durations of soil moisture below the plant water‐stress level (chosen as the threshold), and the temporal spectrum of upcrossings and downcrossings of this threshold, are compared to the memory timescale and spectrum of the full time series, respectively. The results indicate that despite the differences between meteorological drivers, the spectrum of threshold‐crossings is similar across sites, and follows a unique relation with that of the full soil moisture series. The distribution of persistence times exhibits an approximate stretched exponential type and reflects a likelihood of exceeding the memory at all sites. However, the rainfall counterpart of these distributions shows that persistence of dry atmospheric periods is less likely at sites with long soil moisture memory. The cluster exponent, a measure of the density of threshold‐crossings in a time frame, reveals that the clustering tendency in rainfall events (on‐off switches) does not translate directly to clustering in soil moisture. This is particularly the case in climates where rainfall and evapotranspiration are out of phase, resulting in less ordered (more independent) persistence in soil moisture than in rainfall.
1 March 2015 in Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
Temporal variability in root zone soil moisture content (w) exhibits a Lorentzian spectrum with memory dictated by a damping term when forced with white‐noise precipitation. In the context of regional dimming, radiation and precipitation variability are needed to reproduce w trends prompting interest in how the w memory is altered by radiative forcing. A hierarchy of models that sequentially introduce the spectrum of precipitation, net radiation, and the effect of w on evaporative and drainage losses was used to analyze the spectrum of w at subtropical and temperate forested sites. Reproducing the w spectra at long time scales necessitated simultaneous precipitation and net radiation measurements depending on site conditions. The w memory inferred from observed w spectra was 25–38 days, larger than that determined from maximum wet evapotranspiration and field capacity. The w memory can be reasonably inferred from the Lorentzian spectrum when precipitation and evapotranspiration are in phase.