Milestoning is a procedure to compute the time evolution of complicated processes such as barrier crossing events or long diffusive transitions between predefined states. Milestoning reduces the dynamics to transition events between intermediates (the milestones) and computes the local kinetic information to describe these transitions via short molecular dynamics (MD) runs between the milestones. The procedure relies on the ability to reinitialize MD trajectories on the milestones to get the right kinetic information about the transitions. It also rests on the assumptions that the transition events between successive milestones and the time lags between these transitions are statistically independent. In this paper, we analyze the validity of these assumptions. We show that sets of optimal milestones exist, i.e., sets such that successive transitions are indeed statistically independent. The proof of this claim relies on the results of transition path theory and uses the isocommittor surfaces of the reaction as milestones. For systems in the overdamped limit, we also obtain the probability distribution to reinitialize the MD trajectories on the milestones, and we discuss why this distribution is not available in closed form for systems with inertia. We explain why the time lags between transitions are not statistically independent even for optimal milestones, but we show that working with such milestones allows one to compute mean first passage times between milestones exactly. Finally, we discuss some practical implications of our results and we compare milestoning with Markov state models in view of our findings.

An algorithm is applied here to compute folding pathways of staphylococcal protein A, fragment B. Emphasis is on studies of the complete process, starting from an ensemble of fully denatured conformations and ending at the folded state. The stochastic difference equation algorithm is based on optimization of an action that makes it possible to use a large integration step. Motions with typical displacements that change rapidly on the size scale of the step are filtered out, providing numerically stable and approximate solutions. The present approach is unique in maintaining an atomically detailed picture while providing a systematic, controlled approximation to the classical equations of motion. Analysis of 130 trajectories suggests the following folding mechanism for protein A: At an early precollapse phase of the process, a few native hydrogen bonds form near the C terminus of the protein. The hydrogen bonds are formed mostly within the third helix. The next step is chain collapse that occurs in parallel to additional growth of secondary structure seeds. Therefore, the present study does not support a pure hydrophobic collapse, or substantial early formation of secondary structure. At the last step, native tertiary contacts are formed at the same time as the completion of the secondary structure elements. To a large extent, the process is parallel and not sequential. The early formation of the third helix of protein A, fragment B (in the calculation), is consistent with experimental data.