During the last decades, climate and land use changes led to an increased prevalence of megafires in Mediterranean-type climate regions (MCRs). Here, we argue that current wildfire management policies in MCRs are destined to fail. Focused on fire suppression, these policies largely ignore ongoing climate warming and landscape-scale buildup of fuels. The result is a ‘firefighting trap’ that contributes to ongoing fuel accumulation precluding suppression under extreme fire weather, and resulting in more severe and larger fires. We believe that a ‘business as usual’ approach to wildfire in MCRs will not solve the fire problem, and recommend that policy and expenditures be rebalanced between suppression and mitigation of the negative impacts of fire. This requires a paradigm shift: policy effectiveness should not be primarily measured as a function of area burned (as it usually is), but rather as a function of avoided socio-ecological damage and loss.

Portugal has the highest density of wildfire ignitions among southern European countries. The ability to predict the spatial patterns of ignitions constitutes an important tool for managers, helping to improve the effectiveness of fire prevention, detection and firefighting resources allocation. In this study, we analyzed 127 490 ignitions that occurred in Portugal during a 5-year period. We used logistic regression models to predict the likelihood of ignition occurrence, using a set of potentially explanatory variables, and produced an ignition risk map for the Portuguese mainland. Results show that population density, human accessibility, land cover and elevation are important determinants of spatial distribution of fire ignitions. In this paper, we demonstrate that it is possible to predict the spatial patterns of ignitions at the national level with good accuracy and using a small number of easily obtainable variables, which can be useful in decision-making for wildfire management.

Patterns of wildfire occurrence at the landscape level were characterised during the period 1990–94 in Portugal. Based on land-cover information within 5591 burned patches (larger than 5 ha) and in the surrounding landscape, selection ratio functions were used to measure fire preference or avoidance for different land-cover types in 12 regions of the country. Shrublands were the most fire-prone land cover, whereas annual crops, permanent crops and agro-forestry systems were the most avoided by fire. In terms of forest types, conifer plantations were more susceptible to fire than eucalyptus, and broadleaved forests were the least fire-prone. There were regional variations in land-cover susceptibility to fire, which may be explained by differences in climate, management, ignition patterns, firefighting strategies, and regional availability. A cluster analysis of regional variations in selection ratios for all land covers allowed the identification of three main geographical areas with similar fire selection patterns. These results can be used for planning landscape-scale fuel management in order to create landscapes with a lower fire hazard.