Marko Kerac

Dr. Marko Kerac

London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
orcid

Research Focus & Metrics

Academic Career Length

31Years (1996-Present)

(Calculated once Scilit publication data is synced: current year − year of first publication + 1)

Representative Publications

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1 January 2013 in PLoS Currents
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CSCarla Stanke
Carla Stanke
Marko KeracMarko Kerac
Marko Kerac
CPChristel Prudhomme
Christel Prudhomme
JMJolyon Medlock
Jolyon Medlock
VMVirginia Murray
Virginia Murray
Introduction. Climate change projections indicate that droughts will become more intense in the 21 century in some areas of the world. The El Niño Southern Oscillation is associated with drought in some countries, and forecasts can provide advance warning of the increased risk of adverse climate conditions. The most recent available data from EMDAT estimates that over 50 million people globally were affected by drought in 2011. Documentation of the health effects of drought is difficult, given the complexity in assigning a beginning/end and because effects tend to accumulate over time. Most health impacts are indirect because of its link to other mediating circumstances like loss of livelihoods. Methods. The following databases were searched: MEDLINE; CINAHL; Embase; PsychINFO, Cochrane Collection. Key references from extracted papers were hand-searched, and advice from experts was sought for further sources of literature. Inclusion criteria for papers summarised in tables include: explicit link made between drought as exposure and human health outcomes; all study designs/methods; all countries/contexts; any year of publication. Exclusion criteria include: drought meaning shortage unrelated to climate; papers not published in English; studies on dry/arid climates unless drought was noted as an abnormal climatological event. No formal quality evaluation was used on papers meeting inclusion criteria. Results. 87 papers meeting the inclusion criteria are summarised in tables. Additionally, 59 papers not strictly meeting the inclusion criteria are used as supporting text in relevant parts of the results section. Main categories of findings include: nutrition-related effects (including general malnutrition and mortality, micronutrient malnutrition, and anti-nutrient consumption); water-related disease (including E coli, cholera and algal bloom); airborne and dust-related disease (including silo gas exposure and coccidioidomycosis); vector borne disease (including malaria, dengue and West Nile Virus); mental health effects (including distress and other emotional consequences); and other health effects (including wildfire, effects of migration, and damage to infrastructure). Conclusions. The probability of drought-related health impacts varies widely and largely depends upon drought severity, baseline population vulnerability, existing health and sanitation infrastructure, and available resources with which to mitigate impacts as they occur. The socio-economic environment in which drought occurs influences the resilience of the affected population. Forecasting can be used to provide advance warning of the increased risk of adverse climate conditions and can support the disaster risk reduction process. Despite the complexities involved in documentation, research should continue and results should be shared widely in an effort to strengthen drought preparedness and response activities.

15 December 2020 in BMJ Global Health
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STsusan Thurstans
susan Thurstans
COCharles Opondo
Charles Opondo
ASAndrew Seal
Andrew Seal
JWJonathan Wells
Jonathan Wells
TKTanya Khara
Tanya Khara
Marko KeracMarko Kerac
Marko Kerac
Background Excess male morbidity and mortality is well recognised in neonatal medicine and infant health. In contrast, within global nutrition, it is commonly assumed that girls are more at risk of experiencing undernutrition. We aimed to explore evidence for any male/female differences in child undernutrition using anthropometric case definitions and the reasons for differences observed. Methods We searched: Medline, Embase, Global health, Popline and Cochrane databases with no time limits applied. Eligible studies focused on children aged 0–59 months affected by undernutrition where sex was reported. In the meta-analysis, undernutrition-specific estimates were examined separately for wasting, stunting and underweight using a random-effects model. Results 74 studies were identified: 44/74 studies were included in the meta-analysis. In 20 which examined wasting, boys had higher odds of being wasted than girls (pooled OR 1.26, 95% CI 1.13 to 1.40). 38 examined stunting: boys had higher odds of stunting than girls (pooled OR 1.29 95% CI 1.22 to 1.37). 23 explored underweight: boys had higher odds of being underweight than girls (pooled OR 1.14, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.26). There was some limited evidence that the female advantage, indicated by a lower risk of stunting and underweight, was weaker in South Asia than other parts of the world. 43/74 (58%) studies discussed possible reasons for boy/girl differences; 10/74 (14%) cited studies with similar findings with no further discussion; 21/74 (28%) had no sex difference discussion. 6/43 studies (14%) postulated biological causes, 21/43 (49%) social causes and 16/43 (37%) to a combination. Conclusion Our review indicates that undernutrition in children under 5 is more likely to affect boys than girls, though the magnitude of these differences varies and is more pronounced in some contexts than others. Future research should further explore reasons for these differences and implications for nutrition policy and practice.

10 March 2021 in BMJ Global Health
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KGKelsey Grey
Kelsey Grey
GGGerard Bryan Gonzales
Gerard Bryan Gonzales
MAMubarek Abera
Mubarek Abera
NLNatasha Lelijveld
Natasha Lelijveld
DTDebbie Thompson
Debbie Thompson
Marko KeracMarko Kerac
Marko Kerac
Introduction Child malnutrition (undernutrition) and adult non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are major global public health problems. While convincing evidence links prenatal malnutrition with increased risk of NCDs, less is known about the long-term sequelae of malnutrition in childhood. We therefore examined evidence of associations between postnatal malnutrition, encompassing documented severe childhood malnutrition in low/middle-income countries (LMICs) or famine exposure, and later-life cardiometabolic NCDs. Methods Our peer-reviewed search strategy focused on ‘severe childhood malnutrition’, ‘LMICs’, ‘famine’, and ‘cardiometabolic NCDs’ to identify studies in Medline, Embase, Global Health, and the Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL) databases. We synthesised results narratively and assessed study quality with the UK National Institute for Health and Care Excellence checklist. Results We identified 57 studies of cardiometabolic NCD outcomes in survivors of documented severe childhood malnutrition in LMICs (n=14) and historical famines (n=43). Exposure to severe malnutrition or famine in childhood was consistently associated with increased risk of cardiovascular disease (7/8 studies), hypertension (8/11), impaired glucose metabolism (15/24) and metabolic syndrome (6/6) in later life. Evidence for effects on lipid metabolism (6/11 null, 5/11 mixed findings), obesity (3/13 null, 5/13 increased risk, 5/13 decreased risk) and other outcomes was less consistent. Sex-specific differences were observed in some cohorts, with women consistently at higher risk of glucose metabolism disorders and metabolic syndrome. Conclusion Severe malnutrition or famine during childhood is associated with increased risk of cardiometabolic NCDs, suggesting that developmental plasticity extends beyond prenatal life. Severe malnutrition in childhood thus has serious implications not only for acute morbidity and mortality but also for survivors’ long-term health. Heterogeneity across studies, confounding by prenatal malnutrition, and age effects in famine studies preclude firm conclusions on causality. Research to improve understanding of mechanisms linking postnatal malnutrition and NCDs is needed to inform policy and programming to improve the lifelong health of severe malnutrition survivors.

3 June 2014 in PLOS ONE
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Marko KeracMarko Kerac
Marko Kerac
JBJames Bunn
James Bunn
GCGeorge Chagaluka
George Chagaluka
PBPaluku Bahwere
Paluku Bahwere
ATAndrew Tomkins
Andrew Tomkins
ASAndrew Seal
Andrew Seal
Management of Severe Acute Malnutrition (SAM) plays a vital role in achieving global child survival targets. Effective treatment programmes are available but little is known about longer term outcomes following programme discharge. From July 2006 to March 2007, 1024 children (median age 21.5 months, IQR 15–32) contributed 1187 admission episodes to an inpatient-based SAM treatment centre in Blantyre, Malawi. Long term outcomes, were determined in a longitudinal cohort study, a year or more after initial programme discharge. We found information on 88%(899/1024). In total, 42%(427/1024) children died during or after treatment. 25%(105/427) of deaths occurred after normal programme discharge, >90 days after admission. Mortality was greatest among HIV seropositive children: 62%(274/445). Other risk factors included age <12 months; severity of malnutrition at admission; and disability. In survivors, weight-for-height and weight-for-age improved but height-for-age remained low, mean −2.97 z-scores (SD 1.3). Although SAM mortality in this setting was unacceptably high, our findings offer important lessons for future programming, policy and research. First is the need for improved programme evaluation: most routine reporting systems would have missed late deaths and underestimated total mortality due to SAM. Second, a more holistic view of SAM is needed: while treatment will always focus on nutritional interventions, it is vital to also identify and manage underlying clinical conditions such as HIV and disability. Finally early identification and treatment of SAM should be emphasised: our results suggest that this could improve longer term as well as short term outcomes. As international policy and programming becomes increasingly focused on stunting and post-malnutrition chronic disease outcomes, SAM should not be forgotten. Proactive prevention and treatment services are essential, not only to reduce mortality in the short term but also because they have potential to impact on longer term morbidity, growth and development of survivors.

6 July 2022 in BMJ Global Health
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AKAmir Kirolos
Amir Kirolos
MGMagdalena Goyheneix
Magdalena Goyheneix
MEMike Kalmus Eliasz
Mike Kalmus Eliasz
MCMphatso Chisala
Mphatso Chisala
SLSamantha Lissauer
Samantha Lissauer
Marko KeracMarko Kerac
Marko Kerac
Background Severe childhood malnutrition impairs growth and development short-term, but current understanding of long-term outcomes is limited. We aimed to identify studies assessing neurodevelopmental, cognitive, behavioural and mental health outcomes following childhood malnutrition. Methods We systematically searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, Global Health and PsycINFO for studies assessing these outcomes in those exposed to childhood malnutrition in low-income and middle-income settings. We included studies assessing undernutrition measured by low mid-upper arm circumference, weight-for-height, weight-for-age or nutritional oedema. We used guidelines for synthesis of results without meta-analysis to analyse three outcome areas: neurodevelopment, cognition/academic achievement, behaviour/mental health. Results We identified 30 studies, including some long-term cohorts reporting outcomes through to adulthood. There is strong evidence that malnutrition in childhood negatively impacts neurodevelopment based on high-quality studies using validated neurodevelopmental assessment tools. There is also strong evidence that malnutrition impairs academic achievement with agreement across seven studies investigating this outcome. Eight of 11 studies showed an association between childhood malnutrition and impaired cognition. This moderate evidence is limited by some studies failing to measure important confounders such as socioeconomic status. Five of 7 studies found a difference in behavioural assessment scores in those exposed to childhood malnutrition compared with controls but this moderate evidence is similarly limited by unmeasured confounders. Mental health impacts were difficult to ascertain due to few studies with mixed results. Conclusions Childhood malnutrition is associated with impaired neurodevelopment, academic achievement, cognition and behavioural problems but evidence regarding possible mental health impacts is inconclusive. Future research should explore the interplay of childhood and later-life adversities on these outcomes. While evidence on improving nutritional and clinical therapies to reduce long-term risks is also needed, preventing and eliminating child malnutrition is likely to be the best way of preventing long-term neurocognitive harms. PROSPERO registration number CRD42021260498.

1 July 2009 in The Lancet
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Closed access
Marko KeracMarko Kerac
Marko Kerac
JBJames Bunn
James Bunn
ASAndrew Seal
Andrew Seal
MTMariam Thindwa
Mariam Thindwa
ATAndrew Tomkins
Andrew Tomkins
SCSteve Collins
Steve Collins