Coral reefs are facing increasing pressure from natural and anthropogenic stressors that have already caused significant worldwide declines. In January 2010, coral reefs of Florida, United States, were impacted by an extreme cold-water anomaly that exposed corals to temperatures well below their reported thresholds (16°C), causing rapid coral mortality unprecedented in spatial extent and severity. Reef surveys were conducted from Martin County to the Lower Florida Keys within weeks of the anomaly. The impacts recorded were catastrophic and exceeded those of any previous disturbances in the region. Coral mortality patterns were directly correlated to in-situ and satellite-derived cold-temperature metrics. These impacts rival, in spatial extent and intensity, the impacts of the well-publicized warm-water bleaching events around the globe. The mean percent coral mortality recorded for all species and subregions was 11.5% in the 2010 winter, compared to 0.5% recorded in the previous five summers, including years like 2005 where warm-water bleaching was prevalent. Highest mean mortality (15%–39%) was documented for inshore habitats where temperatures were <11°C for prolonged periods. Increases in mortality from previous years were significant for 21 of 25 coral species, and were 1–2 orders of magnitude higher for most species. The cold-water anomaly of January 2010 caused the worst coral mortality on record for the Florida Reef Tract, highlighting the potential catastrophic impacts that unusual but extreme climatic events can have on the persistence of coral reefs. Moreover, habitats and species most severely affected were those found in high-coral cover, inshore, shallow reef habitats previously considered the “oases” of the region, having escaped declining patterns observed for more offshore habitats. Thus, the 2010 cold-water anomaly not only caused widespread coral mortality but also reversed prior resistance and resilience patterns that will take decades to recover.

The role of wind stress curl (WSC) forcing in the observed interannual variability of the Florida Current (FC) transport is investigated. Evidence is provided for baroclinic adjustment as a physical mechanism linking interannual changes in WSC forcing and changes in the circulation of the North Atlantic subtropical gyre. A continuous monthly time series of FC transport is constructed using daily transports estimated from undersea telephone cables near 27°N in the Straits of Florida. This 25-yr-long time series is linearly regressed against interannual WSC variability derived from the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis. The results indicate that a substantial fraction of the FC transport variability at 3–12-yr periods is explained by low-frequency WSC variations. A lagged regression analysis is performed to explore hypothetical adjustment times of the wind-driven circulation. The estimated lag times are at least 2 times faster than those predicted by linear beta-plane planetary wave theory. Possible reasons for... Abstract The role of wind stress curl (WSC) forcing in the observed interannual variability of the Florida Current (FC) transport is investigated. Evidence is provided for baroclinic adjustment as a physical mechanism linking interannual changes in WSC forcing and changes in the circulation of the North Atlantic subtropical gyre. A continuous monthly time series of FC transport is constructed using daily transports estimated from undersea telephone cables near 27°N in the Straits of Florida. This 25-yr-long time series is linearly regressed against interannual WSC variability derived from the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis. The results indicate that a substantial fraction of the FC transport variability at 3–12-yr periods is explained by low-frequency WSC variations. A lagged regression analysis is performed to explore hypothetical adjustment times of the wind-driven circulation. The estimated lag times are at least 2 times faster than those predicted by linear beta-plane planetary wave theory. Possible reasons for...

This study demonstrates a link between coastal downwelling and tropical cyclone (TC) intensification. We show that coastal downwelling increases air‐sea enthalpy (heat, moisture) fluxes ahead of TCs as they approach land, creating conditions conducive to intensification even in the presence of typically inhibiting factors like strong vertical wind shear. The study uses a coupled TC model (HWRF‐B) and buoy observations to demonstrate that coastal downwelling developed as three TCs in 2020 approached land. Results show downwelling maintained warmer sea‐surface temperatures over the ocean shelf, enhancing air‐sea temperature/humidity contrasts. We found that in such cases resulting air‐sea enthalpy fluxes can replenish the boundary‐layer even when cool, dry air intrudes, as in sheared storms and storms approaching continental land‐masses. The resulting warm, moist air is advected into the TC inner core, enhancing convective development, thus providing energy for TC intensification. These results indicate coastal downwelling can be important in forecasting TC intensity change before landfall.

The goal of this paper is to introduce a new multi-storm atmosphere/ocean coupling scheme that was implemented and tested in the Basin-Scale Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF-B) model. HWRF-B, an experimental model developed at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and supported by the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program, is configured with multiple storm-following nested domains to produce high-resolution predictions for several tropical cyclones (TCs) within the same forecast integration. The new coupling scheme parallelizes atmosphere/ocean interactions for each nested domain in HWRF-B, and it may be applied to any atmosphere/ocean coupled system. TC forecasts from this new hydrodynamical modeling system were produced in the North Atlantic and eastern North Pacific from 2017–2019. The performance of HWRF-B was evaluated, including forecasts of TC track, intensity, structure (e.g., surface wind radii), and intensity change, and simulated sea-surface temperatures were compared with satellite observations. Median forecast skill scores showed significant improvement over the operational HWRF at most forecast lead times for track, intensity, and structure. Sea-surface temperatures cooled by 1–8 °C for the five HWRF-B case studies, demonstrating the utility of the model to study the impact of the ocean on TC intensity forecasting. These results show the value of a multi-storm modeling system and provide confidence that the multi-storm coupling scheme was implemented correctly. Future TC models within NOAA, especially the Unified Forecast System’s Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System, would benefit from the multi-storm coupling scheme whose utility and performance are demonstrated in HWRF-B here.

Coral reefs are in decline worldwide. In response to this habitat loss, there are efforts to grow, outplant, and restore corals in many regions. The physical oceanographic habitat of corals—such as sea temperature, waves, ocean currents, and available light—is spatially heterogeneous. We therefore hypothesize that outplant location may affect microbiomes, and ultimately, coral health and restoration success. We evaluated the influence of the physical oceanographic habitat on microbes in wild Porites astreoides and Siderastrea siderea. Tissue samples were collected at four Florida reefs in March, June, and September of 2015. We estimated oceanographic conditions from moored instruments, diver observations, remote sensing data, and numerical models. We analyzed microbiomes using amplicon 16S rRNA high-throughput sequencing data. We found microbial alpha-diversity negatively correlated with in situ sea temperature (which represented both the annual cycle and upwelling), as well as modeled alongshore currents, in situ sea-level, and modeled tide. Microbial beta-diversity correlated positively with significant wave height and alongshore currents from models, remotely-sensed relative turbidity, and in situ temperature. We found that archaea from the order Marine Group II decrease with increases in significant wave height, suggesting that this taxon may be influenced by waves. Also, during times of high wave activity, the relative abundance of bacteria from the order Flavobacteriales increases, which may be due to resuspension and cross-shelf transport of sediments. We also found that bacteria from the order SAR86 increase in relative abundance with increased temperature, which suggests that this taxon may play a role in the coral microbiome during periods of higher temperature. Overall, we find that physical oceanographic variability correlates with the structure of these coral microbiomes in ways that could be significant to coral health.

Coupling a three-dimensional ocean circulation model to an atmospheric model can significantly improve forecasting of tropical cyclones (TCs). This is particularly true of forecasts for TC intensity (maximum sustained surface wind and minimum central pressure), but also for structure (e.g., surface wind-field sizes). This study seeks to explore the physical mechanisms by which a dynamic ocean influences TC evolution, using an operational TC model. The authors evaluated impacts of ocean-coupling on TC intensity and structure forecasts from NOAA’s Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System v1.0 B (HFSB), which became operational at the NOAA National Weather Service in 2023. The study compared existing HFSB coupled simulations with simulations using an identical model configuration in which the dynamic ocean coupling was replaced by a simple diurnally varying sea surface temperature model. The authors analyzed TCs of interest from the 2020–2022 Atlantic hurricane seasons, selecting forecast cycles with small coupled track-forecast errors for detailed analysis. The results show the link between the dynamic, coupled ocean response to TCs and coincident TC structural changes directly related to changing intensity and surface wind-field size. These results show the importance of coupling in forecasting slower-moving TCs and those with larger surface wind fields. However, there are unexpected instances where coupling impacts the near-TC atmospheric environment (e.g., mid-level moisture intrusion), ultimately affecting intensity forecasts. These results suggest that, even for more rapidly moving and smaller TCs, the influence of the ocean response to the wind field in the near-TC atmospheric environment is important for TC forecasting. The authors also examined cases where coupling degrades forecast performance. Statistical comparisons of coupled versus uncoupled HFSB further show an interesting tendency: high biases in peak surface winds for the uncoupled forecasts contrast with corresponding low biases, contrary to expectations, in coupled forecasts; the coupled forecasts also show a significant negative bias in the radii of 34 kt winds relative to National Hurricane Center best track estimates. By contrast, coupled forecasts show very small bias in minimum central pressure compared with a strong negative bias in uncoupled. Possible explanations for these discrepancies are discussed. The ultimate goal of this work will be to enable better evaluation and forecast improvement of TC models in future work.