This paper assessed the effect of projected climate change on the grain yield of barley in fourteen administrative regions in the United Kingdom (UK). Climate data for the 2030s, 2040s and 2050s for the high emission scenario (HES), medium emissions scenario (MES) and low emissions scenario (LES) were obtained from the UK Climate Projections 2009 (UKCP09) using the Weather Generator. Simulations were performed using the AquaCrop model and statistics of simulated future yields and baseline yields were compared. The results show that climate change could be beneficial to UK barley production. For all emissions scenarios and regions, differences between the simulated average future yields (2030s–2050s) and the observed yields in the baseline period (1961–1990) ranged from 1.4 to 4 tons·ha⁻¹. The largest increase in yields and yield variability occurred under the HES in the 2050s. Absolute increases in yields over baseline yields were substantially greater in the western half of the UK than in the eastern regions but marginally from south to north. These increases notwithstanding, yield reductions were observed for some individual years due to saturated soil conditions (most common in Wales, Northern Ireland and South-West Scotland). These suggest risks of yield penalties in any growing season in the future, a situation that should be considered for planning adaptation and risk management.

Currently, the UK has a high self-sufficiency rate in barley production. This paper assessed the effects of projected climate and land use changes on feed barley production and, consequently, on meat supply in the UK from the 2030s to the 2050s. Total barley production under projected land use and climate changes ranged from 4.6 million tons in the 2030s to 9.0 million tons in the 2050s. From these, the projected feed barley supply ranged from approximately 2.3 to 4.6 million tons from the 2030s to the 2050s, respectively. The results indicate that while UK spring barley production will thrive under, and benefit from climate change, total land area allocated to barley production will ultimately determine self-sufficiency. Without expansion in the area of land and/or further significant increases in yields, the UK may face large deficits in domestic feed barley production and, for that matter, meat supply in the future. Hence, agricultural and food security policy needs to consider, principally, the effect of agricultural land use change on key crops, such as barley. Even though the UK can import feed barley or meat to address the deficits observed in this study, the question that needs to be addressed is where all that import will come from.

This paper aims to analyse evidence, based on one of the largest and most representative samples of households previously flooded or living with flood risk to date, of social patterns in a range of flood resilience traits relating to preparedness prior to a flood (e.g., property adaptations, contents insurance, etc.) and mitigations enacted during and immediately following a flood (e.g., receiving a warning, evacuation into temporary accommodation, etc.). The data were collected from a 2006 survey of 1223 households from a variety of locations across Scotland between one and twelve years after major local floods. Our analysis identifies remarkably few social differences in flood preparedness and mitigation measures, although some aspects of demography, housing and length of residence in an area, as well as personal flood history, are important. In light of this finding, we argue that social differences in vulnerability and resilience to flooding arise from deep-seated socio-economic and socio-spatial inequalities that affect exposure to flood risk and ability to recover from flood impacts. The engrained, but well-meaning, assumption in flood risk management that impoverished households and communities are lacking or deficient in flood preparedness or mitigation knowledge and capabilities is somewhat pejorative and misses fundamental, yet sometimes invisible, social stratifications play out in subtle but powerful ways to affect households’ and communities’ ability to avoid and recover from floods. We argue that general poverty and inequality alleviation measures, such as tax and welfare policy and urban and community regeneration schemes, are likely to be as, if not more, important in alleviating social inequalities in the long-term impacts of floods than social targeting of flood risk management policy.

A distributed hydrological model was applied to a 69km² experimental catchment, Eddleston Water, Scotland, UK. The impact on model outputs of applying progressively simpler representations of spatial variability in land use and superficial geology was assessed. Alternative representations of the spatial distribution of superficial geology and land use produced differences in model outputs. These differences were generally small with the exception of the maximum absolute error (E_max). Inter-model differences were most sensitive to the largest precipitation events. Although variations in superficial geology dominated over those for land use, exceptions were seen in two sub-catchments. These were connected with particularly large variations in land use and/or the small spatial extent of superficial geology. Lower resolution spatial data produced superior model performance in the majority of sub-catchments. This has implications for modelling other catchments especially in situations where the high resolution data employed herein are not available.