On the basis of daily observations of 39 meteorological stations in the Tarim River Basin, the variability of drought and wetness has been analysed using the standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI, 1961–2010). The result shows an increasing trend in annual mean SPEI with a significant change in 1986. Although the frequency of moderate and severe droughts decreased after the change, the frequency of extreme drought events increased slightly. But different categories of wetness show a consistent increase in frequency. The return periods of drought and wetness prolonged and shortened, respectively, after 1986. Furthermore, composites of geopotential height and water vapour flux fields at 500 hPa are analyzed for extreme wet and dry months of the warm season (May to October) as well as for the warm seasons of the periods 1961 to 1986 and 1987 to 2010. The difference between composites of extreme wet and dry shows that the water vapour supply during wet events can be related to transports from the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal. The midlatitude atmospheric circulation plays an important role by transporting moisture from the east into the Tarim River Basin; this is the main reason of the wetter condition in warm seasons after 1986 in the study region.

Satellite-based precipitation monitoring at high spatial resolution is crucial for assessing the water and energy cycles at the global and regional scale. Based on the recently released 7th version of the Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) product of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), and the monthly precipitation data (3B43) are evaluated using observed monthly precipitation from 65 meteorological stations in Jiangsu Province, China, for the period 1998–2014. Additionally, the standardized precipitation index (SPI), which is derived by a nonparametric approach, is employed to investigate the suitability of the TRMM 3B43 precipitation data for drought monitoring in Jiangsu Province. The temporal correlations between observations and the TRMM 3B43 precipitation data show, in general, reasonable agreement for different time scales. However, in summer, only 50% of the stations present correlation coefficients that are statistically significant at the 95% confidence interval. The overall best agreement of TRMM 3B43 precipitation data at seasonal scale tends to occur in autumn (SON). The comparative analysis of the calculated SPI time series suggests that the accuracy of TRMM3B43 decreases with increasing time scale. Stations with significant correlation coefficients also become less spatially homogeneous with increasing time scale. In summary, the findings demonstrate that TRMM 3B43 precipitation data can be used for reliable short-term drought monitoring in Jiangsu province, while temporal-spatial limitations exist for longer time scales.

Understanding the effects of climate and catchment properties’ changes on water yield is a challenging component in assessments of future water resources. Here, we spatially applied the water-energy balance equation, based on the widely-used Budyko framework, to quantify the temporal and spatial differences of the climate elasticity of runoff in the Poyang Lake Basin (PYLB), highlighting the influence of the catchment properties’ parameter n variation on the climate elasticity and runoff prediction. By using Sen’s slope and the Mann–Kendall method, we found that, for the whole study period (1960–2010), annual temperature in PYLB significantly increased at a rate of 1.44% per decade. Basin-wide wind speed and net radiation had been declining at 0.17 m/s and 46.30 MJ/m² per decade. No significant trend was detected in precipitation and relative humidity. The moving average method was applied to evaluate the temporal pattern of n. The results showed that the calibrated catchment properties’ parameter and the derived elasticities were not constant during the past 50 years. We found that in most sub-basins, the n values increased during 1970–1980, followed by a decreasing trend in the period from 1980 to 1990, whereas the n value in Fuhe sub-basin kept increasing for the almost the whole study period. In addition, the climate elasticity is highly correlated with the n value, indicating that the catchment properties’ parameter was the dominant factor influencing climate elasticity in PYLB in the past 50 years. We also attempted to predict the runoff trend with the consideration of trends in n. However, in some sub-basins, there were still considerable differences between the predicted runoff trend and the observed one. The method used here to evaluate the temporal pattern of n should be an extension of the existing literature and will provide a better understanding of elasticity in the regional hydrological cycle.