This paper presents a rapid assessment of current and likely future impacts of the COVID-19 outbreak on rural economies given their socio-economic characteristics. Drawing principally on current evidence for the UK, as well as lessons from the 2001 Foot and Mouth Disease outbreak and the 2007/8 financial crises, it outlines the likely key demand and supply effects, paying attention to the situation for agriculture as well as discussing the implications for rural communities. A distinction is made between the effects on businesses offering goods and services for out-of-home as opposed to in-home consumption. Gendered dimensions are also noted as likely business and household strategies for coping and adaptation. The paper concludes with a brief mapping of a research agenda for studying the longer-term effects of COVID-19 on rural economies.

Gorton M., Hubbard C. and Hubbard L. The folly of European Union policy transfer: why the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) does not fit Central and Eastern Europe, Regional Studies. This paper assesses the appropriateness of the European Union's Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) for meeting rural development challenges in the New Member States (NMS). It argues that while the mitigation of structural problems confronting rural areas in these countries is critical to meeting the challenge of effectively integrating Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) into the European Union, the CAP is poorly suited to this task. Overall, the CAP was insufficiently reformed to accommodate CEE accession effectively and it represents a failure of the European Union to adjust adequately from an exclusively Western European institution into an appropriate pan-European organization. Gorton M., Hubbard C. et Hubbard L. La folie d'élargir les politiques de l'Ue: la Pac, pourquoi elle ne convient pas aux Peco, Regional Studies. Cet article cherche à évaluer jusqu'à quel point la Politique agricole commune (Pac) de l'Union européenne répond aux défis de l'aménagement rural dans les nouveaux pays-membres. On soutient que la Pac convient mal à cette tâche, bien que la minimisation des problèmes structurels qui affrontent les zones rurales de ces pays soit essentielle à l'intégration des Peco dans l'Ue. Toutes choses égales par ailleurs, la réforme de la Pac ne suffisait pas pour faciliter l'adhésion des Peco et montre l'incapacité de l'Ue à se transformer d'une institution portant sur l'Europe de l'Ouest en une organisation paneuropéenne. Politique agricole commune (Pac) Aménagement rural Elargissement Peco Gorton M., Hubbard C. und Hubbard L. Die Absurdität der Politikübertragung in der EU: Warum die GAP nicht zu Mittel- und Osteuropa passt, Regional Studies. In diesem Beitrag wird untersucht, wie angemessen die Gemeinsame Agrarpolitik (GAP) der Europäischen Union zur Lösung der Probleme im Zusammenhang mit der Entwicklung ländlicher Gebiete in den neuen Mitgliedsstaaten ist. Es wird argumentiert, dass die Linderung der Strukturprobleme in den ländlichen Gebieten dieser Staaten zwar eine zentrale Rolle für eine wirksame Integration von Mittel- und Osteuropa in die EU spielt, doch dass die GAP für diese Aufgabe schlecht geeignet ist. Insgesamt wurde die GAP für eine wirksame Eingliederung der mittel- und osteuropäischen Beitrittsländer nicht ausreichend reformiert; vielmehr steht sie für das Versagen der EU, sich angemessen anzupassen und von einer ausschließlich westeuropäischen Institution zu einer gesamteuropäischen Organisation weiterzuentwickeln. Gemeinsame Agrarpolitik (GAP) Entwicklung ländlicher Gebiete Erweiterung Mittel- und Osteuropa Gorton M., Hubbard C. y Hubbard L. El desatino de la transferencia de políticas de la UE: Por qué la PAC no encaja en Europa central y oriental, Regional Studies. En este artículo evaluamos en qué medida es apropiada la Política Agrícola Común (PAC) de la Unión Europea para solucionar los problemas relacionados con el desarrollo rural en los nuevos Estados Miembros. Sostenemos que si bien la mitigación de los problemas estructurales a los que se enfrentan las zonas rurales en estos países es indispensable para superar el reto de una integración eficaz de los países de Europa central y oriental en la UE, la PAC no es nada adecuada para esta tarea. En general la PAC se reformó de modo insuficiente para acomodar eficazmente la adhesión de los países de Europa central y oriental y representa un fallo de la UE que no ha sido capaz de adaptarse adecuadamente desde una institución exclusiva de los países occidentales de Europa a una apropiada organización paneuropea. Política Agrícola Común (PAC) Desarrollo rural Ampliación Europa central y oriental

In response to an increased public awareness regarding how livestock are reared, animal welfare scientists have attempted to develop new methods of welfare assessment at the farm level. Furthermore, in recent years they have increasingly moved away from the conventional approach of evaluating the provision of resources necessary to ensure good welfare, and have instead focused on the use of animal-based measures of welfare. In contrast, it is believed that farmers use mostly resource-based and management-based measures (eg the provision of food, water and housing) when assessing the welfare of their animals. They also seem to be driven more by economic and financial concerns than by the welfare of the animalsper se, when it comes to the provision of animal welfare. Different approaches to the definition and assessment of farm animal welfare were explored in work carried out at Newcastle University as part of the Welfare Quality® project by both social and welfare scientists. Social scientists explored farmers’ perceptions and understanding of animal welfare, whilst welfare scientists developed animal-based measures of welfare for use in a prototype on-farm welfare monitoring system. Based on two separate surveys, this paper focuses on UK farmers’ perception and understanding of animal welfare and their criteria of assessment in contrast with those employed by welfare scientists, using a specific case study of pigs. Results show that, despite scientists being unaware of the findings from the farmer survey, they produced a set of measures to assess welfare which were very similar to those used by farmers. However, ‘instinctive’ terms used by farmers to describe (positive or negative) animal behaviour did not bear any relation to more objective welfare measures. Compared with conventional monitoring systems which focus more on the provision of resources to promote good welfare than on the animal itself, the prototype monitoring system may be more acceptable to farmers given that it uses similar animal-based measures to assess welfare to those they use themselves, and furthermore, the focus is on the animal.

Governance and fairness in the food value chain have gained considerable attention from both policymakers and scholars, especially in developing countries. This study analysed the milk value chain, exploring its governance and fairness, and assessed the regulatory interventions across the milk value chain in Vietnam using a qualitative framework and the global value chain governance model. The results show that Vietnam’s milk production and dairy market have developed notably since the reforms. The value chain is structured according to three governance models, i.e., relational, captive, and hierarchy models. Vietnam’s milk value chain has progressed through three building phases, expanding in breadth, and undergoing in-depth development, and the governance models have adjusted accordingly. However, Vietnamese dairy farms have been exposed to a low level of fairness across the supply chain. Although dairy farmers in the relational model may benefit from more power and fairness in the short term, farmers in the captive model may gain benefits and potential fairness in the long term. Vietnam has diverse regulatory interventions to enhance farmers’ fairness and welfare, and the results are notable. However, not all farmers have benefitted from these policies, and measures regarding fairness and welfare should be diverse, gradual, and inclusive.

Summary: There is little doubt that Brexit would have significant implications for UK agriculture, a sector with strong trade links to the EU and strong reliance on CAP income support. This article reports preliminary results from employing a Computable General Equilibrium Model, a Partial Equilibrium Model and Farm Level Models to explore selected trade and domestic policy scenarios post‐Brexit. These allow for the estimation of changes in producer prices, production and farm incomes against a baseline scenario of continued EU membership. Under a Free Trade Agreement with the EU, agricultural impacts are relatively modest. By contrast, unilateral removal of import tariffs has significant negative impacts on prices, production and incomes. Adoption of the EU's WTO tariff schedule for all imports favours net importers (e.g. dairy) and harms net exporters (e.g. sheep). Given the strong dependence of most UK farms on direct payments, their removal worsens negative impacts of new trade arrangements and offsets positive impacts. Impacts vary across different types and sizes of farm, but also regionally. However, the period of adjustment to new trade and domestic policy conditions may prove very challenging for a large number of farm businesses.

Supply chains are already incorporating citizen/consumer demands for improved animal welfare, especially through product differentiation and the associated segmentation of markets. Nonetheless, the ability of the chain to deliver high(er) levels and standards of animal welfare is subject to two critical conditions: (a) the innovative and adaptive capacity of the chain to respond to society’s demands; (b) the extent to which consumers actually purchase animal-friendly products. Despite a substantial literature reporting estimates of willingness to pay (WTP) for animal welfare, there is a belief that in practice people vote for substantially more and better animal welfare as citizens than they are willing to pay for as consumers. This citizen-consumer gap has significant consequences on the supply chain, although there is limited literature on the capacity and willingness of supply chains to deliver what the consumer wants and is willing to pay for. This paper outlines an economic analysis of supply chain delivery of improved standards for farm animal welfare in the EU and illustrates the possible consequences of improving animal welfare standards for the supply chain using a prototype belief network analysis.