Summary: Background: COVID-19 pandemic has developed rapidly and the ability to stratify the most vulnerable patients is vital. However, routinely used severity scoring systems are often low on diagnosis, even in non-survivors. Therefore, clinical prediction models for mortality are urgently required. Methods: We developed and internally validated a multivariable logistic regression model to predict inpatient mortality in COVID-19 positive patients using data collected retrospectively from Tongji Hospital, Wuhan (299 patients). External validation was conducted using a retrospective cohort from Jinyintan Hospital, Wuhan (145 patients). Nine variables commonly measured in these acute settings were considered for model development, including age, biomarkers and comorbidities. Backwards stepwise selection and bootstrap resampling were used for model development and internal validation. We assessed discrimination via the C statistic, and calibration using calibration-in-the-large, calibration slopes and plots. Findings: The final model included age, lymphocyte count, lactate dehydrogenase and SpO ₂ as independent predictors of mortality. Discrimination of the model was excellent in both internal (c=0·89) and external (c=0·98) validation. Internal calibration was excellent (calibration slope=1). External validation showed some over-prediction of risk in low-risk individuals and under-prediction of risk in high-risk individuals prior to recalibration. Recalibration of the intercept and slope led to excellent performance of the model in independent data. Interpretation: COVID-19 is a new disease and behaves differently from common critical illnesses. This study provides a new prediction model to identify patients with lethal COVID-19. Its practical reliance on commonly available parameters should improve usage of limited healthcare resources and patient survival rate. Funding: This study was supported by following funding: Key Research and Development Plan of Jiangsu Province (BE2018743 and BE2019749), National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) (PDF-2018-11-ST2-006), British Heart Foundation (BHF) (PG/16/65/32313) and Liverpool University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust in UK. Research in context: Evidence before this study: Since the outbreak of COVID-19, there has been a pressing need for development of a prognostic tool that is easy for clinicians to use. Recently, a Lancet publication showed that in a cohort of 191 patients with COVID-19, age, SOFA score and D-dimer measurements were associated with mortality. No other publication involving prognostic factors or models has been identified to date. Added value of this study: In our cohorts of 444 patients from two hospitals, SOFA scores were low in the majority of patients on admission. The relevance of D-dimer could not be verified, as it is not included in routine laboratory tests. In this study, we have established a multivariable clinical prediction model using a development cohort of 299 patients from one hospital. After backwards selection, four variables, including age, lymphocyte count, lactate dehydrogenase and SpO ₂ remained in the model to predict mortality. This has been validated internally and externally with a cohort of 145 patients from a different hospital. Discrimination of the model was excellent in both internal (c=0·89) and external (c=0·98) validation. Calibration plots showed excellent agreement between predicted and observed probabilities of mortality after recalibration of the model to account for underlying differences in the risk profile of the datasets. This demonstrated that the model is able to make reliable predictions in patients from different hospitals. In addition, these variables agree with pathological mechanisms and the model is easy to use in all types of clinical settings. Implication of all the available evidence: After further external validation in different countries the model will enable better risk stratification and more targeted management of patients with COVID-19. With the nomogram, this model that is based on readily available parameters can help clinicians to stratify COVID-19 patients on diagnosis to use limited healthcare resources effectively and improve patient outcome.

Severe deficiency of ADAMTS13 (<10 iu/dL) is diagnostic of thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura (TTP) and leads to accumulation of ultra-large vWF multimers, platelet aggregation, and widespread microthrombi, which can be life-threatening. However, the clinical implications of a low ADAMTS13 activity level are not only important in an acute episode of TTP. In this article, we discuss the effects of low ADAMTS13 activity in congenital and immune-mediated TTP patients not only at presentation but once in a clinical remission. Evidence is emerging of the clinical effects of low ADAMTS13 activity in other disease areas outside of TTP, and here, we explore the wider impact of low ADAMTS13 activity on the vascular endothelium and the potential for recombinant ADAMTS13 therapy in other thrombotic disease states.

Background: Multiple organ injury and dysfunction often occurs in acute critical illness and adversely affects survival. However, in patients who survive, organ function usually recovers without permanent damage. It is, therefore, likely that there are reversible mechanisms, but this is poorly understood in the pathogenesis of multiple organ dysfunction syndrome (MODS). Aims: Based on our knowledge of extracellular histones and pneumolysin, as endogenous and exogenous pore-forming toxins, respectively, here we clarify if the extent of cell membrane disruption and recovery is important in MODS. Methods: This is a combination of retrospective clinical studies of a cohort of 98 patients from an intensive care unit (ICU) in a tertiary hospital, with interventional animal models and laboratory investigation. Results: In patients without septic shock and/or disseminate intravascular coagulation (DIC), circulating histones also strongly correlated with sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) scores, suggesting their pore-forming property might play an important role. In vivo, histones or pneumolysin infusion similarly caused significant elevation of cell damage markers and multiple organ injury. In trauma and sepsis models, circulating histones strongly correlated with these markers, and anti-histone reagents significantly reduced their release. Comparison of pneumolysin deletion and its parental strain-induced sepsis mouse model showed that pneumolysin was not essential for sepsis development, but enhanced multiple organ damage and reduced survival time. In vitro, histones and pneumolysin treatment disrupt cell membrane integrity, resulting in changes in whole-cell currents and elevated intracellular Ca²⁺ to lead to Ca²⁺ overload. Cell-specific damage markers, lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), alanine aminotransferase (ALT), and cardiac troponin I (cTnI), were released from damaged cells. Once toxins were removed, cell membrane damage could be rapidly repaired and cellular function recovered. Conclusion: This work has confirmed the importance of pore-forming toxins in the development of MODS and proposed a potential mechanism to explain the reversibility of MODS. This may form the foundation for the development of effective therapies.

Introductory paragraph: The mechanisms that underpin COVID-19 disease severity, and determine the outcome of infection, are only beginning to be unraveled. The host inflammatory response contributes to lung injury, but circulating mediators levels fall below those in classical ‘cytokine storms’. We analyzed serial plasma samples from 619 patients hospitalized with COVID-19 recruited through the prospective multicenter ISARIC clinical characterization protocol U.K. study and 39 milder community cases not requiring hospitalization. Elevated levels of numerous mediators including angiopoietin-2, CXCL10, and GM-CSF were seen at recruitment in patients who later died. Markers of endothelial injury (angiopoietin-2 and von-Willebrand factor A2) were detected early in some patients, while inflammatory cytokines and markers of lung injury persisted for several weeks in fatal COVID-19 despite decreasing antiviral cytokine levels. Overall, markers of myeloid or endothelial cell activation were associated with severe, progressive, and fatal disease indicating a central role for innate immune activation and vascular inflammation in COVID-19.

Reduction in cardiac contractility is common in severe sepsis. However, the pathological mechanism is still not fully understood. Recently it has been found that circulating histones released after extensive immune cell death play important roles in multiple organ injury and disfunction, particularly in cardiomyocyte injury and contractility reduction. How extracellular histones cause cardiac contractility depression is still not fully clear. In this work, using cultured cardiomyocytes and a histone infusion mouse model, we demonstrate that clinically relevant histone concentrations cause significant increases in intracellular calcium concentrations with subsequent activation and enriched localization of calcium-dependent protein kinase C (PKC) α and βII into the myofilament fraction of cardiomyocytes in vitro and in vivo. Furthermore, histones induced dose-dependent phosphorylation of cardiac troponin I (cTnI) at the PKC-regulated phosphorylation residues (S43 and T144) in cultured cardiomyocytes, which was also confirmed in murine cardiomyocytes following intravenous histone injection. Specific inhibitors against PKCα and PKCβII revealed that histone-induced cTnI phosphorylation was mainly mediated by PKCα activation, but not PKCβII. Blocking PKCα also significantly abrogated histone-induced deterioration in peak shortening, duration and the velocity of shortening, and re-lengthening of cardiomyocyte contractility. These in vitro and in vivo findings collectively indicate a potential mechanism of histone-induced cardiomyocyte dysfunction driven by PKCα activation with subsequent enhanced phosphorylation of cTnI. These findings also indicate a potential mechanism of clinical cardiac dysfunction in sepsis and other critical illnesses with high levels of circulating histones, which holds the potential translational benefit to these patients by targeting circulating histones and downstream pathways.

Severe deficiency of ADAMTS13 (<10 iu/dL) is diagnostic of thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura (TTP) and leads to accumulation of ultra-large VWF multimers, platelet aggregation and widespread microthrombi, which can be life-threatening. However, the clinical implications of a low ADAMTS13 activity level are not only important in an acute episode of TTP. In this article, we discuss the effects of a low ADAMTS13 activity in congenital and immune-mediated TTP patients not only at presentation, but once in a clinical remission. Evidence is emerging of the clinical effects of a low ADAMTS13 activity in other disease areas outside of TTP and here we explore the wider impact of low ADAMTS13 activity on the vascular endothelium and the potential for recombinant ADAMTS13 therapy in other thrombotic disease states.