Assessing the Arctic: The Arctic is experiencing some of the most rapid climate change currently under way across the globe, but consequent ecological responses have not been widely reported. At the close of the Fourth International Polar Year, Post et al. (p. 1355 ) review observations on ecological impacts in this sensitive region. The widespread changes occurring in terrestrial, freshwater, and marine systems, presage changes at lower latitudes that will affect natural resources, food production, and future climate buffering.

Waterbird hunting is a widespread activity in wetlands throughout Europe and constitutes one of the most significant sources of disturbance during autumn and winter. The biological evidence for effects of hunting disturbance on the behaviour and distribution of migratory and wintering waterbirds and its possible impacts on population dynamics is reviewed. Most of the literature has been concerned with local effects of disturbance, focussing on quarry geese and dabbling ducks. Comparatively little is known about effects on diving ducks and waders, while there is no direct evidence for impacts at the population level for any waterbird species. Hunting disturbance can cause temporary disruption of normal activities of waterbirds, alter their diurnal rhythms and increase escape flight distances. It can displace waterbirds from preferred feeding and roosting habitats at local or regional level and increase turnover, so that the carrying capacity of a site is not reached. Quarry waterbirds, and those occurring in large inshore concentrations, such as many dabbling ducks, geese and waders, are potentially most sensitive to disturbance. Hunting disturbance can disrupt pair‐bonds and family structures which may affect reproductive output. Evidence is provided that many waterbird populations are limited by winter conditions and that the majority of studied waterbird species lose body reserves during winter. Because hunting disturbance causes under‐exploitation of potential feeding grounds where population limitation is considered to occur, such disturbance will, by definition, have an impact at the population level. However, the magnitude of this impact has not been quantified and requires a modelling approach.

We estimated the size of 30 defined populations of geese wintering in the Western Palearctic (including five released or reintroduced populations of three species). Fourteen populations were accurately estimated from almost full count coverage or robust sampling and ten were well estimated based on more than 50% of their total being counted. An estimated 5.03 million geese wintered in January 2009, up on 3.10 million in January 1993. Only two populations numbered less than 10,000 birds (Scandinavian Lesser White-fronted Goose and Svalbard/Greenland Light-bellied Brent Goose, the former being critically small within restricted range). Eighteen populations numbered 10,000–100,000, eight 100,000–1,000,000 and the largest 1.2 million individuals. Of 21 populations with known longer term trends, 16 are showing significant exponential increases, 4 are stable and one declining. Amongst these same populations, five are declining since the 1990s. Long term declines in productivity were found in 7 out of 15 populations. Amongst most of the 11 populations for which data exist, there were no significant long-term trends in annual adult survival. Improved monitoring, including demographic, is required to retain populations in favorable conservation status.