Slow-moving tropical cyclones (TCs) can cause heavy rain because of their duration of influence. Combined with expected increase in rain rates associated with TCs in a warmer climate, there is growing interest in TC translation speed in the past and future. Here we present that a slowdown trend of the translation speed is not simulated for the period 1951–2011 based on historical model simulations. We also find that the annual-mean translation speed could increase under global warming. Although previous studies show large uncertainties in the future projections of TC characteristics, our model simulations show that the average TC translation speed at higher latitudes becomes smaller in a warmer climate, but the relative frequency of TCs at higher latitudes increases. Since the translation speed is much larger in the extratropics, the increase in the relative frequency of TCs at higher latitudes compensates the reduction of the translation speed there, leading to a global mean increase in TC translation speed.
A new bulk parameterization of the air–sea momentum flux at high wind speeds is proposed based on coupled wave–wind model simulations for 10 tropical cyclones that occurred in the Atlantic Ocean during 1998–2003. The new parameterization describes how the roughness length increases linearly with wind speed and the neutral drag coefficient tends to level off at high wind speeds. The proposed parameterization is then tested on real hurricanes using the operational Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) coupled hurricane–ocean prediction model. The impact of the new parameterization on the hurricane prediction is mainly found in increased maximum surface wind speeds, while it does not appreciably affect the hurricane central pressure prediction. This helps to improve the GFDL model–predicted wind–pressure relationship in strong hurricanes. Attempts are made to provide physical explanations as to why the reduced drag coefficient affects surface wind speeds but not the central pressure in hurricanes.
Numerical simulation of sea surface directional wave spectra under hurricane wind forcing was carried out using a high-resolution wave model. The simulation was run for four days as Hurricane Bonnie (1998) approached the U.S. East Coast. The results are compared with buoy observations and NASA Scanning Radar Altimeter (SRA) data, which were obtained on 24 August 1998 in the open ocean and on 26 August when the storm was approaching the shore. The simulated significant wave height in the open ocean reached 14 m, agreeing well with the SRA and buoy observations. It gradually decreased as the hurricane approached the shore. In the open ocean, the dominant wavelength and wave direction in all four quadrants relative to the storm center were simulated very accurately. For the landfall case, however, the simulated dominant wavelength displays noticeable overestimation because the wave model cannot properly simulate shoaling processes. Direct comparison of the model and SRA directional spectra in all four quadrants of the hurricane shows excellent agreement in general. In some cases, the model produces smoother spectra with narrower directional spreading than do the observations. The spatial characteristics of the spectra depend on the relative position from the hurricane center, the hurricane translation speed, and bathymetry. Attempts are made to provide simple explanations for the misalignment between local wind and wave directions and for the effect of hurricane translation speed on wave spectra.
1 October 2004 in Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences
Present parameterizations of air–sea momentum flux at high wind speed, including hurricane wind forcing, are based on extrapolation from field measurements in much weaker wind regimes. They predict monotonic increase of drag coefficient (Cd) with wind speed. Under hurricane wind forcing, the present numerical experiments using a coupled ocean wave and wave boundary layer model show that Cd at extreme wind speeds strongly depends on the wave field. Higher, longer, and more developed waves in the right-front quadrant of the storm produce higher sea drag; lower, shorter, and younger waves in the rear-left quadrant produce lower sea drag. Hurricane intensity, translation speed, as well as the asymmetry of wind forcing are major factors that determine the spatial distribution of Cd. At high winds above 30 m s−1, the present model predicts a significant reduction of Cd and an overall tendency to level off and even decrease with wind speed. This tendency is consistent with recent observational, experime... Abstract Present parameterizations of air–sea momentum flux at high wind speed, including hurricane wind forcing, are based on extrapolation from field measurements in much weaker wind regimes. They predict monotonic increase of drag coefficient (Cd) with wind speed. Under hurricane wind forcing, the present numerical experiments using a coupled ocean wave and wave boundary layer model show that Cd at extreme wind speeds strongly depends on the wave field. Higher, longer, and more developed waves in the right-front quadrant of the storm produce higher sea drag; lower, shorter, and younger waves in the rear-left quadrant produce lower sea drag. Hurricane intensity, translation speed, as well as the asymmetry of wind forcing are major factors that determine the spatial distribution of Cd. At high winds above 30 m s−1, the present model predicts a significant reduction of Cd and an overall tendency to level off and even decrease with wind speed. This tendency is consistent with recent observational, experime...