The present research leverages prior works to automatically estimate wall and ceiling R-values using a combination of a smart WiFi thermostat, building geometry, and historical energy consumption data to improve the calculation of the mean radiant temperature (MRT), which is integral to the determination of thermal comfort in buildings. To assess the potential of this approach for realizing energy savings in any residence, machine learning predictive models of indoor temperature and humidity, based upon a nonlinear autoregressive exogenous model (NARX), were developed. The developed models were used to calculate the temperature and humidity set-points needed to achieve minimum thermal comfort at all times. The initial results showed cooling energy savings in excess of 83% and 95%, respectively, for high- and low-efficiency residences. The significance of this research is that thermal comfort control can be employed to realize significant heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) savings using readily available data and systems.

Smart WiFi thermostats have moved well beyond the function they were originally designed for; namely, controlling heating and cooling comfort in buildings. They are now also learning from occupant behaviors and permit occupants to control their comfort remotely. This research seeks to go beyond this state of the art by utilizing smart WiFi thermostat data in residences to develop dynamic predictive models for room temperature and cooling/heating demand. These models can then be used to estimate the energy savings from new thermostat temperature schedules and estimate peak load reduction achievable from maintaining a residence in a minimum thermal comfort condition. Back Propagation Neural Network (BPNN), Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM), and Encoder-Decoder LSTM dynamic models are explored. Results demonstrate that LSTM outperforms BPNN and Encoder-Decoder LSTM approach, yielding and a MAE error of 0.5 °C, equal to the resolution error of the measured temperature. Additionally, the models developed are shown to be highly accurate in predicting savings from aggressive thermostat set point schedules, yielding deep reduction of up to 14.3% for heating and cooling, as well as significant energy reduction from curtailed thermal comfort in response to a high demand event.

Smart WiFi thermostats, when they first reached the market, were touted as a means for achieving substantial heating and cooling energy cost savings. These savings did not materialize until additional features, such as geofencing, were added. Today, average savings from these thermostats of 10–12% in heating and 15% in cooling for a single-family residence have been reported. This research aims to demonstrate additional potential benefit of these thermostats, namely as a potential instrument for conducting virtual energy audits on residences. In this study, archived smart WiFi thermostat measured temperature data in the form of a power spectrum, corresponding historical weather and energy consumption data, building geometry characteristics, and occupancy data were integrated in order to train a machine learning model to predict attic and wall R-Values, furnace efficiency, and air conditioning seasonal energy efficiency ratio (SEER), all of which were known for all residences in this study. The developed model was validated on residences not used for model development. Validation R-squared values of 0.9408, 0.9421, 0.9536, and 0.9053 for predicting attic and wall R-values, furnace efficiency, and AC SEER, respectively, were realized. This research demonstrates promise for low-cost data-based energy auditing of residences reliant upon smart WiFi thermostats.