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Prof. Mansour Almazroui holds a Ph.D. in Climate Change from the Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK. He is the founder and Director of Center of Excellence for Climate Change Research and Head of the Department of Meteorology at King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. He is a member of the Board of Directors of the National Meteorological Center, Saudi Arabia. He is also working as a consultant at the General Authority of Meteorology and Environmental Protection, Saudi Arabia.
This paper presents projected changes in extreme temperature and precipitation events by using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) data for mid-century (2036–2065) and end-century (2070–2099) periods with respect to the reference period (1985–2014). Four indices namely, Annual maximum of maximum temperature (TXx), Extreme heat wave days frequency (HWFI), Annual maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation (RX5day), and Consecutive Dry Days (CDD) were investigated under four socioeconomic scenarios (SSP1-2.6; SSP2-4.5; SSP3-7.0; SSP5-8.5) over the entire globe and its 26 Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX) regions. The projections show an increase in intensity and frequency of hot temperature and precipitation extremes over land. The intensity of the hottest days (as measured by TXx) is projected to increase more in extratropical regions than in the tropics, while the frequency of extremely hot days (as measured by HWFI) is projected to increase more in the tropics. Drought frequency (as measured by CDD) is projected to increase more over Brazil, the Mediterranean, South Africa, and Australia. Meanwhile, the Asian monsoon regions (i.e., South Asia, East Asia, and Southeast Asia) become more prone to extreme flash flooding events later in the twenty-first century as shown by the higher RX5day index projections. The projected changes in extremes reveal large spatial variability within each SREX region. The spatial variability of the studied extreme events increases with increasing greenhouse gas concentration (GHG) and is higher at the end of the twenty-first century. The projected change in the extremes and the pattern of their spatial variability is minimum under the low-emission scenario SSP1-2.6. Our results indicate that an increased concentration of GHG leads to substantial increases in the extremes and their intensities. Hence, limiting CO2 emissions could substantially limit the risks associated with increases in extreme events in the twenty-first century.
Mansour Almazroui; Fahad Saeed; Sajjad Saeed; Muhammad Ismail; Muhammad Azhar Ehsan; M. Nazrul Islam; Muhammad Adnan Abid; Enda O’Brien; Shahzad Kamil; Irfan Ur Rashid; Imran Nadeem. Projected Changes in Climate Extremes Using CMIP6 Simulations Over SREX Regions. Earth Systems and Environment 2021, 1 -17.
AMA StyleMansour Almazroui, Fahad Saeed, Sajjad Saeed, Muhammad Ismail, Muhammad Azhar Ehsan, M. Nazrul Islam, Muhammad Adnan Abid, Enda O’Brien, Shahzad Kamil, Irfan Ur Rashid, Imran Nadeem. Projected Changes in Climate Extremes Using CMIP6 Simulations Over SREX Regions. Earth Systems and Environment. 2021; ():1-17.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMansour Almazroui; Fahad Saeed; Sajjad Saeed; Muhammad Ismail; Muhammad Azhar Ehsan; M. Nazrul Islam; Muhammad Adnan Abid; Enda O’Brien; Shahzad Kamil; Irfan Ur Rashid; Imran Nadeem. 2021. "Projected Changes in Climate Extremes Using CMIP6 Simulations Over SREX Regions." Earth Systems and Environment , no. : 1-17.
The objective of the present work is to investigate the optimally performing tilt angles in Saudi Arabia of solar panels that follow the daily motion of the Sun. To that end, the annual energy sums are estimated for surfaces with tilt angles in the range 5°–55° at 82 locations covering all Saudi Arabia. All calculations use a surface albedo of 0.2 and a near-real value, too. It is found that tilt angles of 40°, 45°, and 50°, respectively, are optimal for the three recently defined solar energy zones in Saudi Arabia. The variation of the energy sums in each energy zone on annual, seasonal and monthly basis is given for near-real ground albedos; the analysis provides regression equations for the energy sums as functions of time. A map of the annual global inclined solar energy for Saudi Arabia is derived and presented. The annual energy sums are found to vary between 2159 kWhm−2year−1 and 4078 kWhm−2year−1. Finally, a correction factor, introduced in a recent publication, is used; it is confirmed that the relationship between the correction factor and either the tilt angle or the ground-albedo ratio has a general application and it may constitute a nomogram.
Ashraf Farahat; Harry Kambezidis; Mansour Almazroui; Mohammed Al Otaibi. Solar Potential in Saudi Arabia for Inclined Flat-Plate Surfaces of Constant Tilt Tracking the Sun. Applied Sciences 2021, 11, 7105 .
AMA StyleAshraf Farahat, Harry Kambezidis, Mansour Almazroui, Mohammed Al Otaibi. Solar Potential in Saudi Arabia for Inclined Flat-Plate Surfaces of Constant Tilt Tracking the Sun. Applied Sciences. 2021; 11 (15):7105.
Chicago/Turabian StyleAshraf Farahat; Harry Kambezidis; Mansour Almazroui; Mohammed Al Otaibi. 2021. "Solar Potential in Saudi Arabia for Inclined Flat-Plate Surfaces of Constant Tilt Tracking the Sun." Applied Sciences 11, no. 15: 7105.
Aerosol optical depth (AOD) is an important atmospheric parameter for climate change assessment, human health, and for total ecological situation studies both regionally and globally. This study used 21-year (2000–2020) high-resolution (1 km) Multiangle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC) algorithm-based AOD from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor onboard the Terra and Aqua satellites. MAIAC AOD was evaluated against Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) data across three sites (Xuzhou-CUMT, NUIST, and Taihu) located in Jiangsu Province. The study also investigated the spatiotemporal distributions and variations in AOD, with associated trends, and measured the impact of meteorology on AOD in the 13 cities of Jiangsu Province. The evaluation results demonstrated a high correlation (r = 0.867~0.929) between MAIAC AOD and AERONET data, with lower root mean squared error (RMSE = 0.130~0.287) and mean absolute error (MAE = 0.091~0.198). In addition, the spatial distribution of AOD was higher (>0.60) in most cities except the southeast of Nantong City (AOD < 0.4). Seasonally, higher AOD was seen in summer (>0.70) than in spring, autumn, and winter, whereas monthly AOD peaked in June (>0.9) and had a minimum in December (<0.4) for all the cities. Frequencies of 0.3 ≤ AOD < 0.4 and 0.4 ≤ AOD < 0.5 were relatively common, indicating a turbid atmosphere, which may be associated with anthropogenic activities, increased emissions, and changes in meteorological circumstances. Trend analysis showed significant increases in AOD during 2000–2009 for all the cities, perhaps reflecting a booming economy and industrial development, with significant emissions of sulfur dioxide (SO2), and primary aerosols. China’s strict air pollution control policies and control of vehicular emissions helped to decrease AOD from 2010 to 2019, enhancing air quality throughout the study area. A notably similar pattern was observed for AOD and meteorological parameters (LST: land surface temperature, WV: water vapor, and P: precipitation), signifying that meteorology plays a role in terms of increasing and decreasing AOD.
Yu Wang; Arfan Ali; Muhammad Bilal; Zhongfeng Qiu; Song Ke; Mansour Almazroui; Monirul Islam; Yuanzhi Zhang. Identification of Aerosol Pollution Hotspots in Jiangsu Province of China. Remote Sensing 2021, 13, 2842 .
AMA StyleYu Wang, Arfan Ali, Muhammad Bilal, Zhongfeng Qiu, Song Ke, Mansour Almazroui, Monirul Islam, Yuanzhi Zhang. Identification of Aerosol Pollution Hotspots in Jiangsu Province of China. Remote Sensing. 2021; 13 (14):2842.
Chicago/Turabian StyleYu Wang; Arfan Ali; Muhammad Bilal; Zhongfeng Qiu; Song Ke; Mansour Almazroui; Monirul Islam; Yuanzhi Zhang. 2021. "Identification of Aerosol Pollution Hotspots in Jiangsu Province of China." Remote Sensing 13, no. 14: 2842.
We provide an assessment of future daily characteristics of African precipitation by explicitly comparing the results of large ensembles of global (CMIP5, CMIP6) and regional (CORDEX, CORE) climate models, specifically highlighting the similarities and inconsistencies between them. Results for seasonal mean precipitation are not always consistent amongst ensembles: in particular, global models tend to project a wetter future compared to regional models, especially over the Eastern Sahel, Central and East Africa. However, results for other precipitation characteristics are more consistent. In general, all ensembles project an increase in maximum precipitation intensity during the wet season over all regions and emission scenarios (except the West Sahel for CORE) and a decrease in precipitation frequency (under the Representative Concentration Pathways RCP8.5) especially over the West Sahel, the Atlas region, southern central Africa, East Africa and southern Africa. Depending on the season, the length of dry spells is projected to increase consistently by all ensembles and for most (if not all) models over southern Africa, the Ethiopian highlands and the Atlas region. Discrepancies exist between global and regional models on the projected change in precipitation characteristics over specific regions and seasons. For instance, over the Eastern Sahel in July–August most global models show an increase in precipitation frequency but regional models project a robust decrease. Global and regional models also project an opposite sign in the change of the length of dry spells. CORE results show a marked drying over the regions affected by the West Africa monsoon throughout the year, accompanied by a decrease in mean precipitation intensity between May and July that is not present in the other ensembles. This enhanced drying may be related to specific physical mechanisms that are better resolved by the higher resolution models and highlights the importance of a process-based evaluation of the mechanisms controlling precipitation over the region.
Alessandro Dosio; Martin W. Jury; Mansour Almazroui; Moetasim Ashfaq; Ismaila Diallo; Francois A. Engelbrecht; Nana A. B. Klutse; Christopher Lennard; Izidine Pinto; Mouhamadou B. Sylla; Alain T. Tamoffo. Projected future daily characteristics of African precipitation based on global (CMIP5, CMIP6) and regional (CORDEX, CORDEX-CORE) climate models. Climate Dynamics 2021, 1 -24.
AMA StyleAlessandro Dosio, Martin W. Jury, Mansour Almazroui, Moetasim Ashfaq, Ismaila Diallo, Francois A. Engelbrecht, Nana A. B. Klutse, Christopher Lennard, Izidine Pinto, Mouhamadou B. Sylla, Alain T. Tamoffo. Projected future daily characteristics of African precipitation based on global (CMIP5, CMIP6) and regional (CORDEX, CORDEX-CORE) climate models. Climate Dynamics. 2021; ():1-24.
Chicago/Turabian StyleAlessandro Dosio; Martin W. Jury; Mansour Almazroui; Moetasim Ashfaq; Ismaila Diallo; Francois A. Engelbrecht; Nana A. B. Klutse; Christopher Lennard; Izidine Pinto; Mouhamadou B. Sylla; Alain T. Tamoffo. 2021. "Projected future daily characteristics of African precipitation based on global (CMIP5, CMIP6) and regional (CORDEX, CORDEX-CORE) climate models." Climate Dynamics , no. : 1-24.
We evaluate the performance of a large ensemble of Global Climate Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) over South America for a recent past reference period and examine their projections of twenty-first century precipitation and temperature changes. The future changes are computed for two time slices (2040–2059 and 2080–2099) relative to the reference period (1995–2014) under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs, SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, SSP3–7.0 and SSP5–8.5). The CMIP6 GCMs successfully capture the main climate characteristics across South America. However, they exhibit varying skill in the spatiotemporal distribution of precipitation and temperature at the sub-regional scale, particularly over high latitudes and altitudes. Future precipitation exhibits a decrease over the east of the northern Andes in tropical South America and the southern Andes in Chile and Amazonia, and an increase over southeastern South America and the northern Andes—a result generally consistent with earlier CMIP (3 and 5) projections. However, most of these changes remain within the range of variability of the reference period. In contrast, temperature increases are robust in terms of magnitude even under the SSP1–2.6. Future changes mostly progress monotonically from the weakest to the strongest forcing scenario, and from the mid-century to late-century projection period. There is an increase in the seasonality of the intra-annual precipitation distribution, as the wetter part of the year contributes relatively more to the annual total. Furthermore, an increasingly heavy-tailed precipitation distribution and a rightward shifted temperature distribution provide strong indications of a more intense hydrological cycle as greenhouse gas emissions increase. The relative distance of an individual GCM from the ensemble mean does not substantially vary across different scenarios. We found no clear systematic linkage between model spread about the mean in the reference period and the magnitude of simulated sub-regional climate change in the future period. Overall, these results could be useful for regional climate change impact assessments across South America.
Mansour Almazroui; Moetasim Ashfaq; M. Nazrul Islam; Irfan Ur Rashid; Shahzad Kamil; Muhammad Adnan Abid; Enda O’Brien; Muhammad Ismail; Michelle Simões Reboita; Anna A. Sörensson; Paola A. Arias; Lincoln Muniz Alves; Michael K. Tippett; Sajjad Saeed; Rein Haarsma; Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes; Fahad Saeed; Fred Kucharski; Imran Nadeem; Yamina Silva-Vidal; Juan A. Rivera; Muhammad Azhar Ehsan; Daniel Martínez-Castro; Ángel G. Muñoz; Arfan Ali; Erika Coppola; Mouhamadou Bamba Sylla. Assessment of CMIP6 Performance and Projected Temperature and Precipitation Changes Over South America. Earth Systems and Environment 2021, 5, 155 -183.
AMA StyleMansour Almazroui, Moetasim Ashfaq, M. Nazrul Islam, Irfan Ur Rashid, Shahzad Kamil, Muhammad Adnan Abid, Enda O’Brien, Muhammad Ismail, Michelle Simões Reboita, Anna A. Sörensson, Paola A. Arias, Lincoln Muniz Alves, Michael K. Tippett, Sajjad Saeed, Rein Haarsma, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, Fahad Saeed, Fred Kucharski, Imran Nadeem, Yamina Silva-Vidal, Juan A. Rivera, Muhammad Azhar Ehsan, Daniel Martínez-Castro, Ángel G. Muñoz, Arfan Ali, Erika Coppola, Mouhamadou Bamba Sylla. Assessment of CMIP6 Performance and Projected Temperature and Precipitation Changes Over South America. Earth Systems and Environment. 2021; 5 (2):155-183.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMansour Almazroui; Moetasim Ashfaq; M. Nazrul Islam; Irfan Ur Rashid; Shahzad Kamil; Muhammad Adnan Abid; Enda O’Brien; Muhammad Ismail; Michelle Simões Reboita; Anna A. Sörensson; Paola A. Arias; Lincoln Muniz Alves; Michael K. Tippett; Sajjad Saeed; Rein Haarsma; Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes; Fahad Saeed; Fred Kucharski; Imran Nadeem; Yamina Silva-Vidal; Juan A. Rivera; Muhammad Azhar Ehsan; Daniel Martínez-Castro; Ángel G. Muñoz; Arfan Ali; Erika Coppola; Mouhamadou Bamba Sylla. 2021. "Assessment of CMIP6 Performance and Projected Temperature and Precipitation Changes Over South America." Earth Systems and Environment 5, no. 2: 155-183.
The major objective of the present work is to investigate into the appropriate tilt angles of south-oriented solar panels in Saudi Arabia for maximum performance. This is done with the estimation of the annual energy sums received on surfaces with tilt angles in the range 15°–55° inclined to south at 82 locations covering all Saudi Arabia. The analysis shows that tilt angles of 20°, 25° and 30° towards south are the optimum ones depending on site. These optimum tilt angles define three distinct solar energy zones in Saudi Arabia. The variation of the energy sums in each energy zone on annual, seasonal and monthly basis is given; the analysis provides regression equations for the energy sums as function of time in each case. Furthermore, the spatial distribution of the annual global inclined solar energy in Saudi Arabia is shown in a solar map specially derived. The annual energy sums are found to vary between 1612 kWhm−2year−1 and 2977 kWhm−2year−1 across the country. Finally, the notion of a correction factor is introduced, defined, and employed. This factor can be used to correct energy values estimated by a reference ground albedo to those based on near-real ground albedo.
Ashraf Farahat; Harry Kambezidis; Mansour Almazroui; Emad Ramadan. Solar Potential in Saudi Arabia for Southward-Inclined Flat-Plate Surfaces. Applied Sciences 2021, 11, 4101 .
AMA StyleAshraf Farahat, Harry Kambezidis, Mansour Almazroui, Emad Ramadan. Solar Potential in Saudi Arabia for Southward-Inclined Flat-Plate Surfaces. Applied Sciences. 2021; 11 (9):4101.
Chicago/Turabian StyleAshraf Farahat; Harry Kambezidis; Mansour Almazroui; Emad Ramadan. 2021. "Solar Potential in Saudi Arabia for Southward-Inclined Flat-Plate Surfaces." Applied Sciences 11, no. 9: 4101.
Actual flood mapping and quantification in an area provide valuable information for the stakeholder to prevent future losses. This study presents the actual flash flood quantification in Al-Lith Watershed, Saudi Arabia. The study is divided into two steps: first is actual flood mapping using remote sensing data, and the second is the flood volume calculation. Two Sentinel-1 images are processed to map the actual flood, i.e., image from 25 May 2018 (dry condition), and 24 November 2018 (peak flood condition). SNAP software is used for the flood mapping step. During SNAP processing, selecting the backscatter data representing the actual flood in an arid region is challenging. The dB range value from 7.23–14.22 is believed to represent the flood. In GIS software, the flood map result is converted into polygon to define the flood boundary. The flood boundary that is overlaid with Digital Elevation Map (DEM) is filled with the same elevation value. The Focal Statistics neighborhood method with three iterations is used to generate the flood surface elevation inside the flood boundary. The raster contains depth information is derived by subtraction of the flood surface elevation with DEM. Several steps are carried out to minimize the overcalculation outside the flood boundary. The flood volume can be derived by the multiplication of flood depth points with each cell size area. The flash flood volume in Al-Lith Watershed on 24 November 2018 is 155,507,439 m3. Validity checks are performed by comparing it with other studies, and the result shows that the number is reliable.
Jaka Budiman; Jarbou Bahrawi; Asep Hidayatulloh; Mansour Almazroui; Mohamed Elhag. Volumetric Quantification of Flash Flood Using Microwave Data on a Watershed Scale in Arid Environments, Saudi Arabia. Sustainability 2021, 13, 4115 .
AMA StyleJaka Budiman, Jarbou Bahrawi, Asep Hidayatulloh, Mansour Almazroui, Mohamed Elhag. Volumetric Quantification of Flash Flood Using Microwave Data on a Watershed Scale in Arid Environments, Saudi Arabia. Sustainability. 2021; 13 (8):4115.
Chicago/Turabian StyleJaka Budiman; Jarbou Bahrawi; Asep Hidayatulloh; Mansour Almazroui; Mohamed Elhag. 2021. "Volumetric Quantification of Flash Flood Using Microwave Data on a Watershed Scale in Arid Environments, Saudi Arabia." Sustainability 13, no. 8: 4115.
This study investigates spatiotemporal changes in air pollution (particulate as well as gases) during the COVID-19 lockdown period over major cities of Bangladesh. The study investigated the aerosol optical depth (AOD) from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) onboard Terra and Aqua satellites, PM2.5 and PM10 from Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS), and NO2 and O3 from TROPOMI-5P, from March to June 2019–2020. Additionally, aerosol subtypes from the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder (CALIPSO) were used to explore the aerosol types. The strict lockdown (26 March–30 May 2020) led to a significant reduction in AOD (up to 47%) in all major cities, while the partial lockdown (June 2020) led to increased and decreased AOD over the study area. Significant reductions in PM2.5 (37–77%) and PM10 (33–70%) were also observed throughout the country during the strict lockdown and partial lockdown. The NO2 levels decreased by 3–25% in March 2020 in the cities of Rajshahi, Chattogram, Sylhet, Khulna, Barisal, and Mymensingh, in April by 3–43% in Dhaka, Chattogram, Khulna, Barisal, Bhola, and Mymensingh, and May by 12–42% in Rajshahi, Sylhet, Mymensingh, and Rangpur. During the partial lockdown in June, NO2 decreased (9–35%) in Dhaka, Chattogram, Sylhet, Khulna, Barisal, and Rangpur compared to 2019. On the other hand, increases were observed in ozone (O3) levels, with an average increase of 3–12% throughout the country during the strict lockdown and only a slight reduction of 1–3% in O3 during the partial lockdown. In terms of aerosol types, CALIPSO observed high levels of polluted dust followed by dust, smoke, polluted continental, and clean marine-type aerosols over the country in 2019, but all types were decreased during the lockdown. The study concludes that the strict lockdown measures were able to significantly improve air quality conditions over Bangladesh due to the shutdown of industries, vehicles, and movement of people.
Zhongfeng Qiu; Arfan Ali; Janet Nichol; Muhammad Bilal; Pravash Tiwari; Birhanu Habtemicheal; Mansour Almazroui; Sanjit Mondal; Usman Mazhar; Yu Wang; Sajib Sarker; Farhan Mustafa; Muhammad Rahman. Spatiotemporal Investigations of Multi-Sensor Air Pollution Data over Bangladesh during COVID-19 Lockdown. Remote Sensing 2021, 13, 877 .
AMA StyleZhongfeng Qiu, Arfan Ali, Janet Nichol, Muhammad Bilal, Pravash Tiwari, Birhanu Habtemicheal, Mansour Almazroui, Sanjit Mondal, Usman Mazhar, Yu Wang, Sajib Sarker, Farhan Mustafa, Muhammad Rahman. Spatiotemporal Investigations of Multi-Sensor Air Pollution Data over Bangladesh during COVID-19 Lockdown. Remote Sensing. 2021; 13 (5):877.
Chicago/Turabian StyleZhongfeng Qiu; Arfan Ali; Janet Nichol; Muhammad Bilal; Pravash Tiwari; Birhanu Habtemicheal; Mansour Almazroui; Sanjit Mondal; Usman Mazhar; Yu Wang; Sajib Sarker; Farhan Mustafa; Muhammad Rahman. 2021. "Spatiotemporal Investigations of Multi-Sensor Air Pollution Data over Bangladesh during COVID-19 Lockdown." Remote Sensing 13, no. 5: 877.
The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) dataset is used to examine projected changes in temperature and precipitation over the United States (U.S.), Central America and the Caribbean. The changes are computed using an ensemble of 31 models for three future time slices (2021–2040, 2041–2060, and 2080–2099) relative to the reference period (1995–2014) under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs; SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5). The CMIP6 ensemble reproduces the observed annual cycle and distribution of mean annual temperature and precipitation with biases between − 0.93 and 1.27 °C and − 37.90 to 58.45%, respectively, for most of the region. However, modeled precipitation is too large over the western and Midwestern U.S. during winter and spring and over the North American monsoon region in summer, while too small over southern Central America. Temperature is projected to increase over the entire domain under all three SSPs, by as much as 6 °C under SSP5-8.5, and with more pronounced increases in the northern latitudes over the regions that receive snow in the present climate. Annual precipitation projections for the end of the twenty-first century have more uncertainty, as expected, and exhibit a meridional dipole-like pattern, with precipitation increasing by 10–30% over much of the U.S. and decreasing by 10–40% over Central America and the Caribbean, especially over the monsoon region. Seasonally, precipitation over the eastern and central subregions is projected to increase during winter and spring and decrease during summer and autumn. Over the monsoon region and Central America, precipitation is projected to decrease in all seasons except autumn. The analysis was repeated on a subset of 9 models with the best performance in the reference period; however, no significant difference was found, suggesting that model bias is not strongly influencing the projections.
Mansour Almazroui; M. Nazrul Islam; Fahad Saeed; Sajjad Saeed; Muhammad Ismail; Muhammad Azhar Ehsan; Ismaila Diallo; Enda O’Brien; Moetasim Ashfaq; Daniel Martínez-Castro; Tereza Cavazos; Ruth Cerezo-Mota; Michael K. Tippett; William J. Gutowski; Eric J. Alfaro; Hugo G. Hidalgo; Alejandro Vichot-Llano; Jayaka D. Campbell; Shahzad Kamil; Irfan Ur Rashid; Mouhamadou Bamba Sylla; Tannecia Stephenson; Michael Taylor; Mathew Barlow. Projected Changes in Temperature and Precipitation Over the United States, Central America, and the Caribbean in CMIP6 GCMs. Earth Systems and Environment 2021, 5, 1 -24.
AMA StyleMansour Almazroui, M. Nazrul Islam, Fahad Saeed, Sajjad Saeed, Muhammad Ismail, Muhammad Azhar Ehsan, Ismaila Diallo, Enda O’Brien, Moetasim Ashfaq, Daniel Martínez-Castro, Tereza Cavazos, Ruth Cerezo-Mota, Michael K. Tippett, William J. Gutowski, Eric J. Alfaro, Hugo G. Hidalgo, Alejandro Vichot-Llano, Jayaka D. Campbell, Shahzad Kamil, Irfan Ur Rashid, Mouhamadou Bamba Sylla, Tannecia Stephenson, Michael Taylor, Mathew Barlow. Projected Changes in Temperature and Precipitation Over the United States, Central America, and the Caribbean in CMIP6 GCMs. Earth Systems and Environment. 2021; 5 (1):1-24.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMansour Almazroui; M. Nazrul Islam; Fahad Saeed; Sajjad Saeed; Muhammad Ismail; Muhammad Azhar Ehsan; Ismaila Diallo; Enda O’Brien; Moetasim Ashfaq; Daniel Martínez-Castro; Tereza Cavazos; Ruth Cerezo-Mota; Michael K. Tippett; William J. Gutowski; Eric J. Alfaro; Hugo G. Hidalgo; Alejandro Vichot-Llano; Jayaka D. Campbell; Shahzad Kamil; Irfan Ur Rashid; Mouhamadou Bamba Sylla; Tannecia Stephenson; Michael Taylor; Mathew Barlow. 2021. "Projected Changes in Temperature and Precipitation Over the United States, Central America, and the Caribbean in CMIP6 GCMs." Earth Systems and Environment 5, no. 1: 1-24.
The Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) is a widely used statistical technique for the characterization of droughts. It is based on a probabilistic standardization procedure, which converts a Gamma-type probability distribution function (PDF) into a normal (Gaussian) standard series with zero mean and unit standard deviation. Drought classification based on SPI indicates dry and wet spell characteristics, provided that the hydro-meteorological records abide by normal (Gaussian) PDF only, otherwise the results will be biased. Therefore, in this paper, the actual precipitation index (API) method is presented, which provides drought classification and information regardless of the underlying PDFs. The main purpose of this paper is to explain the main differences between SPI and API and to prove that the use of API is the more reliable solution for classification of droughts into five categories described as “Normal dry”, “Slightly dry”, “Medium dry”, “Very dry” and “Extremely dry”. The application of the methodology is presented for two sets of precipitation data; one with exponential PDF monthly precipitation records from Istanbul City, Turkey and one for New Jersey, USA with almost normal (Gaussian) PDF based on annual precipitation records. The comparisons indicate that API is applicable regardless of the underlying PDF of the hydro-meteorology data. It produces real drought classification from the original data without recourse to standard normal PDF conversion.
Zekâi Şen; Mansour Almazroui. Actual Precipitation Index (API) for Drought Classification. Earth Systems and Environment 2021, 5, 59 -70.
AMA StyleZekâi Şen, Mansour Almazroui. Actual Precipitation Index (API) for Drought Classification. Earth Systems and Environment. 2021; 5 (1):59-70.
Chicago/Turabian StyleZekâi Şen; Mansour Almazroui. 2021. "Actual Precipitation Index (API) for Drought Classification." Earth Systems and Environment 5, no. 1: 59-70.
This paper presents the changes in projected temperature and precipitation over the Arabian Peninsula for the twenty-first century using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) dataset. The changes are obtained by analyzing the multimodel ensemble from 31 CMIP6 models for the near (2030–2059) and far (2070–2099) future periods, with reference to the base period 1981–2010, under three future Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Observations show that the annual temperature is rising at the rate of 0.63 ˚C decade–1 (significant at the 99% confidence level), while annual precipitation is decreasing at the rate of 6.3 mm decade–1 (significant at the 90% confidence level), averaged over Saudi Arabia. For the near (far) future period, the 66% likely ranges of annual-averaged temperature is projected to increase by 1.2–1.9 (1.2–2.1) ˚C, 1.4–2.1 (2.3–3.4) ˚C, and 1.8–2.7 (4.1–5.8) ˚C under SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, and SSP5–8.5, respectively. Higher warming is projected in the summer than in the winter, while the Northern Arabian Peninsula (NAP) is projected to warm more than Southern Arabian Peninsula (SAP), by the end of the twenty-first century. For precipitation, a dipole-like pattern is found, with a robust increase in annual mean precipitation over the SAP, and a decrease over the NAP. The 66% likely ranges of annual-averaged precipitation over the whole Arabian Peninsula is projected to change by 5 to 28 (–3 to 29) %, 5 to 31 (4 to 49) %, and 1 to 38 (12 to 107) % under SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, and SSP5–8.5, respectively, in the near (far) future. Overall, the full ranges in CMIP6 remain higher than the CMIP5 models, which points towards a higher climate sensitivity of some of the CMIP6 climate models to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions as compared to the CMIP5. The CMIP6 dataset confirmed previous findings of changes in future climate over the Arabian Peninsula based on CMIP3 and CMIP5 datasets. The results presented in this study will be useful for impact studies, and ultimately in devising future policies for adaptation in the region.
Mansour Almazroui; M. Nazrul Islam; Sajjad Saeed; Fahad Saeed; Muhammad Ismail. Future Changes in Climate over the Arabian Peninsula based on CMIP6 Multimodel Simulations. Earth Systems and Environment 2020, 4, 611 -630.
AMA StyleMansour Almazroui, M. Nazrul Islam, Sajjad Saeed, Fahad Saeed, Muhammad Ismail. Future Changes in Climate over the Arabian Peninsula based on CMIP6 Multimodel Simulations. Earth Systems and Environment. 2020; 4 (4):611-630.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMansour Almazroui; M. Nazrul Islam; Sajjad Saeed; Fahad Saeed; Muhammad Ismail. 2020. "Future Changes in Climate over the Arabian Peninsula based on CMIP6 Multimodel Simulations." Earth Systems and Environment 4, no. 4: 611-630.
Climate change is posing severe threats to human health through its impacts on food, water supply, and weather. Saudi Arabia has frequently experienced record-breaking climate extremes over the last decade, which have had adverse socioeconomic effects on many sectors of the country. The present study explores the changes in average temperature and temperature extremes over Saudi Arabia using an updated daily temperature dataset for the period 1978–2019. Also, changes in frequency and percentile trends of extreme events, as well as in absolute threshold-based temperature extremes, are analyzed at seasonal and annual time scales. The results are robust in showing an increase in both temperature trends and temperature extremes averaged over the second period (2000–2019) when compared to the first period (1980–1999). Over the period 1978–2019, the minimum temperature for the country increased (0.64°C per decade) at a higher rate than the maximum temperature (0.60°C per decade). The rate of increase in the minimum and maximum temperatures was reported as 0.48 and 0.71°C per decade, respectively, for the period 1978–2009. The minimum temperature increased by 0.81°C per decade for the second period compared to an increase of 0.47°C per decade for the first period. The significant increase in minimum temperature has resulted in a decreasing linear trend in the diurnal temperature range over recent decades. The maximum (minimum) temperature increased at a higher rate for Jan-Mar (Jun-Nov) with the highest increase of 0.82 (0.89)°C per decade occurring in March (August). The analysis shows a substantial increase (decrease) in the number of warm (cold) days/nights over the second period compared to the first period. The number of warm days (nights) significantly increased by about 13 (21) days per decade, and there is a significant decrease of about 11 (13) days per decade of cold days (nights). The seasonal analysis shows that this increase in warm days/nights is enhanced in boreal summer, with a reduction in the number of cold days/nights in winter. These results indicate that the warming climate of Saudi Arabia is accelerating in recent decades, which may have severe socioeconomic repercussions in many sectors of the country.
Mansour Almazroui. Changes in Temperature Trends and Extremes over Saudi Arabia for the Period 1978–2019. Advances in Meteorology 2020, 2020, 1 -21.
AMA StyleMansour Almazroui. Changes in Temperature Trends and Extremes over Saudi Arabia for the Period 1978–2019. Advances in Meteorology. 2020; 2020 ():1-21.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMansour Almazroui. 2020. "Changes in Temperature Trends and Extremes over Saudi Arabia for the Period 1978–2019." Advances in Meteorology 2020, no. : 1-21.
The observed records of recent decades show increased economic damage associated with flash flooding in different regions of Saudi Arabia. An increase in extreme rainfall events may cause severe repercussions for the socio-economic sectors of the country. The present study investigated the observed rainfall trends and associated extremes over Saudi Arabia for the 42-year period of 1978–2019. It measured the contribution of extreme events to the total rainfall and calculated the changes to mean and extreme rainfall events over five different climate regions of Saudi Arabia. Rainfall indices were constructed by estimating the extreme characteristics associated with daily rainfall frequency and intensity. The analysis reveals that the annual rainfall is decreasing (5.89 mm decade−1, significant at the 90% level) over Saudi Arabia for the entire analysis period, while it increased in the most recent decade. On a monthly scale, the most significant increase (5.44 mm decade−1) is observed in November and the largest decrease (1.20 mm decade−1) in January. The frequency of intense rainfall events is increasing for the majority of stations over Saudi Arabia, while the frequency of weak events is decreasing. More extreme rainfall events are occurring in the northwest, east, and southwest regions of Saudi Arabia. A daily rainfall of ≥ 26 mm is identified as the threshold for an extreme event. It is found that the contribution of extreme events to the total rainfall amount varies from region to region and season to season. The most considerable contribution (up to 56%) is found in the southern region in June. Regionally, significant contribution comes from the coastal region, where extreme events contribute, on average, 47% of the total rainfall each month from October to February, with the largest (53%) in November. For the entire country, extreme rainfall contributes most (52%) in November and least (20%) in July, while contributions from different stations are in the 8–50% range of the total rainfall.
Mansour Almazroui. Rainfall Trends and Extremes in Saudi Arabia in Recent Decades. Atmosphere 2020, 11, 964 .
AMA StyleMansour Almazroui. Rainfall Trends and Extremes in Saudi Arabia in Recent Decades. Atmosphere. 2020; 11 (9):964.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMansour Almazroui. 2020. "Rainfall Trends and Extremes in Saudi Arabia in Recent Decades." Atmosphere 11, no. 9: 964.
We analyze data of 27 global climate models from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), and examine projected changes in temperature and precipitation over the African continent during the twenty-first century. The temperature and precipitation changes are computed for two future time slices, 2030–2059 (near term) and 2070–2099 (long term), relative to the present climate (1981–2010), for the entire African continent and its eight subregions. The CMIP6 multi-model ensemble projected a continuous and significant increase in the mean annual temperature over all of Africa and its eight subregions during the twenty-first century. The mean annual temperature over Africa for the near (long)-term period is projected to increase by 1.2 °C (1.4 °C), 1.5 °C (2.3 °C), and 1.8 °C (4.4 °C) under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) for weak, moderate, and strong forcing, referenced as SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5, respectively. The future warming is not uniform over Africa and varies regionally. By the end of the twenty-first century, the largest rise in mean annual temperature (5.6 °C) is projected over the Sahara, while the smallest rise (3.5 °C) is over Central East Africa, under the strong forcing SSP5-8.5 scenario. The projected boreal winter and summer temperature patterns for the twenty-first century show spatial distributions similar to the annual patterns. Uncertainty associated with projected temperature over Africa and its eight subregions increases with time and reaches a maximum by the end of the twenty-first century. On the other hand, the precipitation projections over Africa during the twenty-first century show large spatial variability and seasonal dependency. The northern and southern parts of Africa show a reduction in precipitation, while the central parts of Africa show an increase, in future climates under the three reference scenarios. For the near (long)-term periods, the area-averaged precipitation over Africa is projected to increase by 6.2 (4.8)%, 6.8 (8.5)%, and 9.5 (15.2)% under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5, respectively. The median warming simulated by the CMIP6 model ensemble remains higher than the CMIP5 ensemble over most of Africa, reaching as high as 2.5 °C over some regions, while precipitation shows a mixed spatial pattern.
Mansour Almazroui; Fahad Saeed; Sajjad Saeed; M. Nazrul Islam; Muhammad Ismail; Nana Ama Browne Klutse; Muhammad Haroon Siddiqui. Projected Change in Temperature and Precipitation Over Africa from CMIP6. Earth Systems and Environment 2020, 4, 455 -475.
AMA StyleMansour Almazroui, Fahad Saeed, Sajjad Saeed, M. Nazrul Islam, Muhammad Ismail, Nana Ama Browne Klutse, Muhammad Haroon Siddiqui. Projected Change in Temperature and Precipitation Over Africa from CMIP6. Earth Systems and Environment. 2020; 4 (3):455-475.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMansour Almazroui; Fahad Saeed; Sajjad Saeed; M. Nazrul Islam; Muhammad Ismail; Nana Ama Browne Klutse; Muhammad Haroon Siddiqui. 2020. "Projected Change in Temperature and Precipitation Over Africa from CMIP6." Earth Systems and Environment 4, no. 3: 455-475.
The present study analyzes the Survivability for a Fit Human Threshold (SFHT) maximum temperature during the summer (June–August) over the six Middle Eastern countries known as the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) in the twenty-first century. An ensemble of three dynamically downscaled global climate models available from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios is used to analyze the future climate (2006–2099) over the region. The ground-truth air temperature for ten major cities across the GCC countries is utilized for model evaluation and to estimate the model-simulated temperature biases. Both positive and negative biases found during the present climate (1976–2005) are used to adjust the future temperature changes. These adjustments show that the summer maximum temperature is likely to increase continuously for most cities in the GCC countries at the rate of about 0.2 °C (0.6 °C) per decade under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5) for the future period (2020–2099), which is significant at the 99% confidence level. For RCP8.5, the adjusted summer maximum temperature may exceed the SFHT limit of 42 °C in five capital cities of the GCC states and four major cities of Saudi Arabia. The projections based on adjusted values indicate that the average summer maximum temperature should not exceed 52 °C in any city investigated by the end of the twenty-first century. The daily maximum temperature is projected to exceed 55 °C in some cities in the GCC region by the end of the twenty-first century under a business-as-usual scenario that seems to be unrealistic if the biases are not taken into account. It is highly recommended that the GCC states should coordinate their efforts to respond appropriately to these projections using large ensembles of multimodel simulations while allowing for the associated uncertainty.
Mansour Almazroui. Summer maximum temperature over the gulf cooperation council states in the twenty-first century: multimodel simulations overview. Arabian Journal of Geosciences 2020, 13, 1 -19.
AMA StyleMansour Almazroui. Summer maximum temperature over the gulf cooperation council states in the twenty-first century: multimodel simulations overview. Arabian Journal of Geosciences. 2020; 13 (12):1-19.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMansour Almazroui. 2020. "Summer maximum temperature over the gulf cooperation council states in the twenty-first century: multimodel simulations overview." Arabian Journal of Geosciences 13, no. 12: 1-19.
The latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) dataset was analyzed to examine the projected changes in temperature and precipitation over six South Asian countries during the twenty-first century. The CMIP6 model simulations reveal biases in annual mean temperature and precipitation over South Asia in the present climate. In the historical period, the median of the CMIP6 model ensemble systematically underestimates the annual mean temperature for all the South Asian countries, while a mixed behavior is shown in the case of precipitation. In the future climate, the CMIP6 models display higher sensitivity to greenhouse gas emissions over South Asia compared with the CMIP5 models. The multimodel ensemble from 27 CMIP6 models projects a continuous increase in the annual mean temperature over South Asia during the twenty-first century under three future scenarios. The projected temperature shows a large increase (over 6 °C under SSP5-8.5 scenario) over the northwestern parts of South Asia, comprising the complex Karakorum and Himalayan mountain ranges. Any large increase in the mean temperature over this region will most likely result in a faster rate of glacier melting. By the end of the twenty-first century, the annual mean temperature (uncertainty range) over South Asia is projected to increase by 1.2 (0.7–2.1) °C, 2.1 (1.5–3.3) °C, and 4.3 (3.2–6.6) °C under the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively, relative to the present (1995–2014) climate. The warming over South Asia is also continuous on the seasonal time scale. The CMIP6 models projected higher warming in the winter season than in the summer over South Asia, which if verified will have repercussions for snow/ice accumulations as well as winter cropping patterns. The annual mean precipitation is also projected to increase over South Asia during the twenty-first century under all scenarios. The rate of change in the projected annual mean precipitation varies considerably between the South Asian countries. By the end of the twenty-first century, the country-averaged annual mean precipitation (uncertainty range) is projected to increase by 17.1 (2.2–49.1)% in Bangladesh, 18.9 (−4.9 to 72)% in Bhutan, 27.3 (5.3–160.5)% in India, 19.5 (−5.9 to 95.6)% in Nepal, 26.4 (6.4–159.7)% in Pakistan, and 25.1 (−8.5 to 61.0)% in Sri Lanka under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. The seasonal precipitation projections also shows large variability. The projected winter precipitation reveals a robust increase over the western Himalayas, with a corresponding decrease over the eastern Himalayas. On the other hand, the summer precipitation shows a robust increase over most of the South Asia region, with the largest increase over the arid region of southern Pakistan and adjacent areas of India, under the high-emission scenario. The results presented in this study give detailed insights into CMIP6 model performance over the South Asia region, which could be extended further to develop adaptation strategies, and may act as a guideline document for climate change related policymaking in the region.
Mansour Almazroui; Sajjad Saeed; Fahad Saeed; M. Nazrul Islam; Muhammad Ismail. Projections of Precipitation and Temperature over the South Asian Countries in CMIP6. Earth Systems and Environment 2020, 4, 297 -320.
AMA StyleMansour Almazroui, Sajjad Saeed, Fahad Saeed, M. Nazrul Islam, Muhammad Ismail. Projections of Precipitation and Temperature over the South Asian Countries in CMIP6. Earth Systems and Environment. 2020; 4 (2):297-320.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMansour Almazroui; Sajjad Saeed; Fahad Saeed; M. Nazrul Islam; Muhammad Ismail. 2020. "Projections of Precipitation and Temperature over the South Asian Countries in CMIP6." Earth Systems and Environment 4, no. 2: 297-320.
Muhammad Azhar Ehsan; Michael K. Tippett; Fred Kucharski; Mansour Almazroui; Muhammad Ismail. Predicting peak summer monsoon precipitation over Pakistan in ECMWF SEAS5 and North American Multimodel Ensemble. International Journal of Climatology 2020, 40, 5556 -5573.
AMA StyleMuhammad Azhar Ehsan, Michael K. Tippett, Fred Kucharski, Mansour Almazroui, Muhammad Ismail. Predicting peak summer monsoon precipitation over Pakistan in ECMWF SEAS5 and North American Multimodel Ensemble. International Journal of Climatology. 2020; 40 (13):5556-5573.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMuhammad Azhar Ehsan; Michael K. Tippett; Fred Kucharski; Mansour Almazroui; Muhammad Ismail. 2020. "Predicting peak summer monsoon precipitation over Pakistan in ECMWF SEAS5 and North American Multimodel Ensemble." International Journal of Climatology 40, no. 13: 5556-5573.
The summer season (June–July–August) surface air temperatures “SATs” over Saudi Arabia and its associated with the atmospheric circulation cells were identified and analyzed using the NCEP–NCAR reanalyses and the NOAA extended reconstructed sea surface temperature (SST) datasets from 1948 to 2016. The pressure vertical velocity and divergent wind were utilized to determine the atmospheric circulation cells such as Hadley, Walker and Ferrel cells. Possible mechanisms associated with changes in Saudi Arabia summer SAT were investigated, with particular focus on the uppermost and lowermost summers. Changes in SAT are mainly linked to the significant changes in the meridional and zonal atmospheric circulations. Partial correlations between SAT and atmospheric circulation showed that the effect of the Hadley and Walker circulations on the SAT was significant. There is no obvious connection between either the Hadley East Pacific circulation or the Ferrel circulation and SAT. Moreover, there is no dependency between summer SAT and the Atlantic Hadley and Atlantic Walker circulations could be detected in the summer season. The Hadley circulation may affect the Indian monsoon depression, whereas the Walker circulation has less effect. Also, a strong relationship between the Indian‐Pacific warm pool (IPWP) and both the Hadley and Walker circulations were found. Simultaneously, IPWP SST influenced Indian Monsoon depression. Therefore, the Hadley circulation, Walker circulation, and IPWP all play key roles in the displacement and intensity of the Indian monsoon, which in turn strongly influences SAT variability over Saudi Arabia during summertime. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
Mansour Almazroui; Hosny M. Hasanean. Saudi Arabia's summer surface air temperature and its association with circulation patterns. International Journal of Climatology 2020, 40, 5727 -5743.
AMA StyleMansour Almazroui, Hosny M. Hasanean. Saudi Arabia's summer surface air temperature and its association with circulation patterns. International Journal of Climatology. 2020; 40 (13):5727-5743.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMansour Almazroui; Hosny M. Hasanean. 2020. "Saudi Arabia's summer surface air temperature and its association with circulation patterns." International Journal of Climatology 40, no. 13: 5727-5743.
This study explores the seasonal to inter-seasonal and regional changes in temperature (and related uncertainties) over the Arabian Peninsula, by using the multi-model ensemble from the Couple Models Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The seasonal temperature changes are examined for three future periods (2030–2039; 2060–2069 and 2090–2099) with reference to the present climate (1971–2000). The 22-member CMIP5 mean multi-model ensemble (MME) shows a significant increase in temperature (at the 95% confidence level) over the Arabian Peninsula during all three future periods, under both RCPs. The results indicate that the southern and central regions of the Arabian Peninsula are likely to experience larger future temperature changes during the winter and spring seasons. On the other hand, amplification in future temperature changes over the northern and central regions of the Peninsula will more likely occur during the summer and autumn seasons. The inter-seasonal analysis of the MME shows large temperature biases during the winter (Dec-Feb) and summer (Jun Aug) months, while the simulated results closely resemble the observations during both transition periods i.e. spring (Mar-May) and autumn (Sep-Nov). The inter-seasonal results also reveal larger (smaller) temperature increases during September, October and November (March, April) for all future periods under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Results further indicate that the central region of the Arabian Peninsula will experience higher temperatures during all seasons in the 21st century. This information on changes in projected temperature is valuable for the long-term planning of the region.
Mansour Almazroui; M. Salman Khalid; M. Nazrul Islam; Sajjad Saeed. Seasonal and regional changes in temperature projections over the Arabian Peninsula based on the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble dataset. Atmospheric Research 2020, 239, 104913 .
AMA StyleMansour Almazroui, M. Salman Khalid, M. Nazrul Islam, Sajjad Saeed. Seasonal and regional changes in temperature projections over the Arabian Peninsula based on the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble dataset. Atmospheric Research. 2020; 239 ():104913.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMansour Almazroui; M. Salman Khalid; M. Nazrul Islam; Sajjad Saeed. 2020. "Seasonal and regional changes in temperature projections over the Arabian Peninsula based on the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble dataset." Atmospheric Research 239, no. : 104913.
This paper discusses the preliminary results of meteorological drought analysis over Saudi Arabia for the period 1978–2017. In conjunction with meteorological observations, datasets from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC), the Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP), the Climatic Research Unit (CRU), and the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) are utilized to understand the impact of the spatial distribution of rainfall on drought events. Applying precipitation thresholds allows rainfall classifications such as deficit, scanty, and surplus. Precipitation thresholds are also used to define meteorological droughts in the country, which are categorized as usual, moderate, and severe. It is found that drought events occur in Saudi Arabia due to shortfalls in the dry season, even though there is above normal rainfall in the wet season. There is no case of a shortfall in both the wet and dry seasons causing drought. Saudi Arabian droughts of all categories occurred mostly in the dry season, with fewer in the wet season. Results show that in Saudi Arabia, the last month of the wet season (April) is less prone to drought while the first and last months of the dry season (June and September respectively) are more prone to drought. Spatial distribution of drought climatology is obtained by calculating the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). Further application-driven studies of projections are needed based on drought indices and climate model output.
Mansour Almazroui. Assessment of meteorological droughts over Saudi Arabia using surface rainfall observations during the period 1978–2017. Arabian Journal of Geosciences 2019, 12, 694 .
AMA StyleMansour Almazroui. Assessment of meteorological droughts over Saudi Arabia using surface rainfall observations during the period 1978–2017. Arabian Journal of Geosciences. 2019; 12 (22):694.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMansour Almazroui. 2019. "Assessment of meteorological droughts over Saudi Arabia using surface rainfall observations during the period 1978–2017." Arabian Journal of Geosciences 12, no. 22: 694.