For almost two decades, the Lake Chad Basin (LCB) in general and northeast Nigeria in particular have been subject to the insurgency of the Islamist terrorist group Boko Haram. This region is also known for its poor environmental conditions that mostly manifest in land desertification and water scarcity. We analyze the impact of the insecurity and conflict on migration from the most affected rural areas of northeast Nigeria to Maiduguri. We also explore the role that water scarcity and land desertification play in the decision of local people to migrate. Data were collected by interviewing 204 internally displaced persons (IDPs) at the Bakassi IDP camp in Maiduguri between March and May 2019. Experts were also interviewed at various governmental, non-governmental, and international institutions in Abuja. Respondents at the Bakassi IDP camp came from Guzamala, Gwoza, Marte, Monguno, and Nganzai. Though insecurity created by the conflict between Boko Haram insurgents and government forces was mentioned by all respondents as the main factor that triggered migration, this study shows that the decision to migrate was also a function of other factors that differ between communities. These factors include the geographical location of the community, land ownership, the socioeconomic status of the migrants, access to water and land, and wealth. This study reveals that in some communities, it was possible for people to live with conflict if they were still able to practice farming or if they had additional sources of income such as small businesses. The decision to migrate was only taken when the practice of such activities was no longer possible and they had nothing to hold on to.

The Lake Chad region is facing a nexus of interconnected problems including fragility, violent conflict, forced displacement, and scarcity of water and other resources, further aggravated by climate change. Focusing on northeast Nigeria, this study aims to answer the following questions: (1) What role does access to water and farming play in out-migration and return in northeast Nigeria? (2) What is the potential of tensions between internally displaced persons (IDPs) and host communities? Data for this study were collected between March and May 2019 by interviewing 304 local residents and IDPs in northeast Nigeria, as well as experts on migration, environmental, humanitarian and conflict-related issues in research centers and governmental institutions in Abuja. Given the pronounced water scarcity in the region, the results show that between 47% and 95% of rural community members interviewed in northeast Nigeria would be willing to migrate in cases of water scarcity. At the time of study, only 2.5% to 7% of respondents had migrated previously in response to water scarcity, indicating that insecurity and conflict were, however, more relevant drivers of displacement. Regarding our second research question, we find a potential for tensions between IDPs and host communities, as 85% of the interviewed host community members oppose the presence of the IDPs. Hence, measures are needed to improve relations between the two groups. In order to avoid a future scenario where water scarcity becomes a significant driver of migration, efficient management of water resources is paramount. Such action would not only address the issue of migration, but also strengthen the resilience of communities in northern Nigeria.

In this study, we aim to analyze social networks in which internally displaced persons (IDPs) are involved in northeast Nigeria, after they have been displaced by the insurgency of the Boko Haram group. While IDPs usually resettle in camps operated by the government, contacts with host communities are common. We further analyze the potential that such contacts may lead to conflicts between IDPs and their host communities in the Lake Chad region. Data for this study were collected by interviewing IDPs in the Bakassi IDP camp in Maiduguri and by interviewing members of the host community in Maiduguri in close proximity to the Bakassi IDP camp. A Social Network Analysis approach was used to analyze the data, by constructing social network graphs and computing network attributes, mainly the betweenness centrality of actors. The results of the study show on the one hand a mixture of friendly and conflicting relationships between IDPs and the host community from the IDPs’ perspective, and on the other hand, only few contacts between members of the host community and IDPs in the Bakassi IDP camp, from the host community's perspective. The analysis suggests that in the context of conflict present in the Lake Chad region, IDPs and members of the host community mainly use closed networks, to keep available resources and economic opportunities within their communities. We recommend a better service delivery to IDPs but also to members of the host communities who feel neglected as more attention is given to IDPs with the distribution of humanitarian aid.