Human activities both depend upon and have consequences on the environment. Environmental risk assessment (ERA) is a process of estimating the probability and consequences of the adverse effects of human activities and other stressors on the environment. Bayesian networks (BNs) can synthesize different types of knowledge and explicitly account for the probabilities of different scenarios, therefore offering a useful tool for ERA. Their use in formal ERA practice has not been evaluated, however, despite their increasing popularity in environmental modeling. This paper reviews the use of BNs in ERA based on peer-reviewed publications. Following a systematic mapping protocol, we identified studies in which BNs have been used in an environmental risk context and evaluated the scope, technical aspects, and use of the models and their results. The review shows that BNs have been applied in ERA, particularly in recent years, and that there is room to develop both the model implementation and participatory modeling practices. Based on this review and the authors’ experience, we outline general guidelines and development ideas for using BNs in ERA. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2021;17:62–78. © 2020 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC) KEY POINTS This paper reviews the use of Bayesian Networks in Environmental Risk Assessments (ERA) based on peer-reviewed publications. The review shows that BNs have been applied in ERA particularly in recent years and that there is room to develop both the model implementation and participatory modeling practices. Based on this review and the authors' experience, we outline general guidelines and development ideas for using BNs in ERA.

Mineral extraction from the seabed has experienced a recent surge of interest from both the mining industry and marine scientists. While improved methods of geological investigation have enabled the mapping of new seafloor mineral reserves, the ecological impacts of mining in both the deep sea and the shallow seabed are poorly known. This paper presents a synthesis of the empirical evidence from experimental seabed mining and parallel industries to infer the effects of seabed mineral extraction on marine ecosystems, focusing on polymetallic nodules and ferromanganese concretions. We use a problem-structuring framework to evaluate causal relationships between pressures caused by nodule extraction and the associated changes in marine ecosystems. To ensure that the rationale behind impact assessments is clear, we propose that future impact assessments use pressure-specific expert elicitation. We further discuss integrating ecosystem services in the impact assessments and the implications of current methods for environmental risk assessments.

Mineral deposits containing commercially exploitable metals are of interest for seabed mineral extraction in both the deep sea and shallow sea areas. However, the development of seafloor mining is underpinned by high uncertainties on the implementation of the activities and their consequences for the environment. To avoid unbridled expansion of maritime activities, the environmental risks of new types of activities should be carefully evaluated prior to permitting them, yet observational data on the impacts is mostly missing. Here, we examine the environmental risks of seabed mining using a causal, probabilistic network approach. Drawing on a series of expert interviews, we outline the cause-effect pathways related to seabed mining activities to inform quantitative risk assessments. The approach consists of (1) iterative model building with experts to identify the causal connections between seabed mining activities and the affected ecosystem components and (2) quantitative probabilistic modeling. We demonstrate the approach in the Baltic Sea, where seabed mining been has tested and the ecosystem is well studied. The model is used to provide estimates of mortality of benthic fauna under alternative mining scenarios, offering a quantitative means to highlight the uncertainties around the impacts of mining. We further outline requirements for operationalizing quantitative risk assessments in data-poor cases, highlighting the importance of a predictive approach to risk identification. The model can be used to support permitting processes by providing a more comprehensive description of the potential environmental impacts of seabed resource use, allowing iterative updating of the model as new information becomes available.

The way we value the environment affects how we treat it. While public awareness of human impacts on the ocean is increasing, industrial activities in the deep sea are accelerating rapidly and out of sight. The underlying values we hold for the environment were increasingly recognised as an important factor in environmental decision‐making, and it was thus important to evaluate public values towards deep‐sea environments. Here, we explored people's care for the deep sea and related this to the perceived risks of seafloor mining by comparing the deep sea to three other remote environments: Antarctica, remote terrestrial environments and the Moon. We conducted an online survey to investigate symbolic values, which we define as the emotions, moods and meanings an environment evokes, as an element affecting people's care for the environment. In addition, we investigated the respondent's knowledge, worldviews and the perceived environmental and societal risk of mining in these four environments. We found that symbolic values shape people's environmental care and that the overall symbolic value attributed to each of the environments differs. People perceived it likely that mining will take place in the deep sea, and the majority of respondents (81%) stated to care a lot or very much about human activities harming the deep sea. In comparison to the other remote environments, in a general sense people cared less about the deep sea, and their self‐assessed knowledge of the deep sea was lower. These results suggest that it was fundamental to account for the underlying values and emotions towards the environment when evaluating the risks of human activities in remote settings. Our results further highlighted the need to improve public understanding and connection with the deep sea and its role within wider society to engender deep‐sea stewardship. A freePlain Language Summarycan be found within the Supporting Information of this article.

Interdisciplinary marine research is pivotal for addressing ocean sustainability challenges but may exclude diverse socio-economic, cultural, or identity groups. Drawing on perspectives of marine Early Career Researchers, we highlight the importance of Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI) in advancing interdisciplinary marine science and present ten recommendations to enhance DEI. As our ocean faces increasing threats, fostering DEI within this domain is not merely an aspirational goal but an ethical imperative.