BACKGROUND: The ongoing worldwide outbreak of the 2019-nCoV is markedly similar to the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) outbreak 17 years ago. During the 2002-2003 SARS outbreak, healthcare workers formed a special population of patients. Although virus-specific IgG play important roles in virus neutralization and prevention against future infection, limited information is available regarding the long term persistence of IgG after infection with SARS-like coronavirus. METHODS: A long-term prospective cohort study followed 34 SARS-CoV-infected healthcare workers from a hospital with clustered infected cases during the 2002-2003 SARS outbreak in Guangzhou, China, with a 13-year follow-up. Serum samples were collected annually from 2003-2015. Twenty SARS-CoV-infected and 40 non-infected healthcare workers were enrolled in 2015, and their serum samples were collected. All sera were tested for IgG antibodies with ELISA using whole virus and a recombinant nucleocapsid protein of SARS-CoV, as a diagnostic antigen. RESULTS: Anti SARS-CoV IgG was found to persist for up to 12 years. IgG titers typically peaked in 2004, declining rapidly from 2004-2006, and then continued to decline at a slower rate. IgG titers in SARS-CoV-infected healthcare workers remained at a significantly high level until 2015. Patients treated with corticosteroids at the time of infection were found to have lower IgG titers than those without. CONCLUSIONS: IgG antibodies against SARS-CoV can persist for at least 12 years. The presence of SARS-CoV IgG might provide protection against SARS-CoV and other betacoronavirus. This study provides valuable information regarding humoral immune responses against SARS-CoV and the 2019-nCoV.

Background: Human alveolar echinococcosis (HAE), caused by the larvae ofEchinococcus multilocularis,is a severe parasitic disease that is a major public health concern. New HAE cases in China account for 91% of the global HAE burden every year. Although there are a few studies and systematic reviews (SRs) on the prevalence of HAE in China, trends in the prevalence have not been estimated. This study aims to describe the overall variation in the trend of HAE prevalence in China, and provide evidence for preventive measures in the future.Methods: Thirty-five eligible studies were retrieved from PubMed, Web of Science, EMBASE, CNKI, Wanfang Data, and VIP, and included in the SR and meta-analysis. An adjusted Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality checklist was used to evaluate study quality. The arcsine transformation was used to adjust the individual reported prevalence, and the pooled HAE prevalence was calculated. Heterogeneity was evaluated using the chi-square test andI²statistic. Forest plots were generated for the meta-analysis, and publication bias of the studies was assessed using the Egger’s test and funnel plots. We conducted subgroup analyses, sensitivity analyses, and meta-regression analyses to analyze the source of heterogeneity and factors potentially influencing the prevalence of HAE.Results: The meta-analysis indicated that the pooled HAE prevalence in China was 0.96% (95% CI: 0.71 to 1.25%). Factors potentially influencing HAE prevalence were female sex (OR = 1.60, 95% CI: 1.35 to 1.91,P<0.01), being ≥30 years old (OR = 4.72, 95% CI: 2.29 to 9.75,P<0.01), and being farmers and/or herdsmen (OR = 2.54, 95% CI: 1.60 to 4.02,P<0.01). The results of the meta-regression analysis (R² = 38.11%,P < 0.01) indicated that HAE prevalence is on a downward trend.Conclusions: HAE prevalence has decreased over time and maintained low levels after 2005 in China. This decline was influenced by the utilization of One Health strategies as intervention measures. Therefore, these One Health strategies should be used as references to formulate future programs for HAE control. More high-quality epidemiological investigations and surveillance programs should be conducted in order to improve HAE control in the future.

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Background: Human alveolar echinococcosis (HAE), caused by the larvae of Echinococcus multilocularis，is a severe parasitic disease that is a major public health concern. New HAE cases in China account for 91% of the global HAE burden every year. Although there are a few studies and systematic reviews (SRs) on the prevalence of HAE in China, trends in the prevalence have not been estimated. This study aims to describe the overall variation in the trend of HAE prevalence in China, and provide evidence for preventive measures in the future. Methods: Thirty-five eligible studies were retrieved from PubMed, Web of Science, EMBASE, CNKI, Wanfang Data, and VIP, and included in the SR and meta-analysis. An adjusted Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality checklist was used to evaluate study quality. The arcsine transformation was used to adjust the individual reported prevalence, and the pooled HAE prevalence was calculated. Heterogeneity was evaluated using the chi-square test and I² statistic. Forest plots were generated for the meta-analysis, and publication bias of the studies was assessed using the Egger’s test and funnel plots. We conducted subgroup analyses, sensitivity analyses, and meta-regression analyses to analyze the source of heterogeneity and factors potentially influencing the prevalence of HAE. Results: The meta-analysis indicated that the pooled HAE prevalence in China was 0.96% (95% CI: 0.71 to 1.25%). Factors potentially influencing HAE prevalence were female sex (OR=1.60, 95% CI: 1.35 to 1.91, P＜0.01), being ≥30 years old (OR=4.72, 95% CI: 2.29 to 9.75, P＜0.01), and being farmers and/or herdsmen (OR=2.54, 95% CI: 1.60 to 4.02, P＜0.01). The results of the meta-regression analysis (R²=38.11%, P < 0.01) indicated that HAE prevalence is on a downward trend.Conclusions: HAE prevalence has decreased over time and maintained low levels after 2005 in China. This decline was influenced by the utilization of One Health strategies as intervention measures. Therefore, these One Health strategies should be used as references to formulate future programs for HAE control. More high-quality epidemiological investigations and surveillance programs should be conducted in order to improve HAE control in the future.

A discrete dynamic model for human epidemics was developed in present study. The model included major parameters as transmission strength and its decline parameters, mean incubation period, hospitalization time, non-hospitalization daily mortality, non-hospitalization daily recovery rate, and hospitalization proportion, etc. Sensitivity analysis of the model indicated the total cumulative cases significantly increased with initial transmission strength, hospitalization time. The total cumulative cases significantly decreased with transmission strength’s decline and hospitalization proportion, and linearly decreased with non-hospitalization daily mortality and non-hospitalization daily recovery rate. In a certain range, the total cumulative cases significantly increased with mean incubation period. Sensitivity analysis demonstrated that dynamic change of transmission strength is one of the most important and controllable factors. In addition, reducing the delay for hospitalization is much effective in weakening disease epidemic. Non-hospitalization recovery rate is of importance for enhancing immunity to recover from the disease.