Background: In the absence of a cure in the time of a pandemic, social distancing measures seem to be the most effective intervention to slow the spread of disease. Various simulation-based studies have been conducted to investigate the effectiveness of these measures. While those studies unanimously confirm the mitigating effect of social distancing on disease spread, the reported effectiveness varies from 10% to more than 90% reduction in the number of infections. This level of uncertainty is mostly due to the complex dynamics of epidemics and their time-variant parameters. However, real transactional data can reduce uncertainty and provide a less noisy picture of the effectiveness of social distancing. Objective: The aim of this paper was to integrate multiple transactional data sets (GPS mobility data from Google and Apple as well as disease statistics from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control) to study the role of social distancing policies in 26 countries and analyze the transmission rate of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic over the course of 5 weeks. Methods: Relying on the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model and official COVID-19 reports, we first calculated the weekly transmission rate (β) of COVID-19 in 26 countries for 5 consecutive weeks. Then, we integrated these data with the Google and Apple mobility data sets for the same time frame and used a machine learning approach to investigate the relationship between the mobility factors and β values. Results: Gradient boosted trees regression analysis showed that changes in mobility patterns resulting from social distancing policies explain approximately 47% of the variation in the disease transmission rates. Conclusions: Consistent with simulation-based studies, real cross-national transactional data confirms the effectiveness of social distancing interventions in slowing the spread of COVID-19. In addition to providing less noisy and more generalizable support for the idea of social distancing, we provide specific insights for public health policy makers regarding locations that should be given higher priority for enforcing social distancing measures.

Objectives: This study extends prior research by combining a chronological pharmacovigilance network approach with machine-learning (ML) techniques to predict adverse drug events (ADEs) based on the drugs’ similarities in terms of the proteins they target in the human body. The focus of this research, though, is particularly centered on predicting the drug-ADE associations for a set of 8 common and high-risk ADEs.Materials and methods: large collection of annotated MEDLINE biomedical articles was used to construct a drug-ADE network, and the network was further equipped with information about drugs’ target proteins. Several network metrics were extracted and used as predictors in ML algorithms to predict the existence of network edges (ie, associations or relationships).Results: Gradient boosted trees (GBTs) as an ensemble ML algorithm outperformed other prediction methods in identifying the drug-ADE associations with an overall accuracy of 92.8% on the validation sample. The prediction model was able to predict drug-ADE associations, on average, 3.84 years earlier than they were actually mentioned in the biomedical literature.Conclusion: While network analysis and ML techniques were used in separation in prior ADE studies, our results showed that they, in combination with each other, can boost the power of one another and predict better. Moreover, our results highlight the superior capability of ensemble-type ML methods in capturing drug-ADE patterns compared to the regular (ie, singular), ML algorithms.

Epilepsy is one of the most common brain disorders that greatly affects patients’ quality of life and poses serious risks to their health. While the majority of the patients positively respond to the existing anti-epilepsy drugs, others who developed the refractory type of epilepsy show resistance against drug therapy and need to undergo advance treatments such as surgery. Given that identifying such patients is not a straightforward process and requires long courses of trial and error with anti-epilepsy drugs, this study aims at predicting those at-risk patients using clinical and demographic data obtained from electronic medical records. Specifically, the study employs several predictive analytics machine-learning methods, equipped with a novel approach for data balancing, to identify drug-resistant patients using their comorbidities and demographic information along with the initial epilepsy-related diagnosis made by their physician. The promising results we obtained highlight the potential use of machine-learning techniques in facilitating medical decisions and suggest the possibility of extending the proposed approach for developing a clinical decision support system for medical professionals.