The risk assessment matrix is a widely accepted, semi-quantitative tool for assessing risks, and setting priorities in risk management. Although the method can be useful to promote discussion to distinguish high risks from low risks, a published critique described a problem when the frequency and severity of risks are negatively correlated. A theoretical analysis showed that risk predictions could be misleading. We evaluated a practical public health example because it provided experiential risk data that allowed us to assess the practical implications of the published concern that risk matrices would make predictions that are worse than random. We explored this predicted problem by constructing a risk assessment matrix using a public health risk scenario—Tainted blood transfusion infection risk—That provides negative correlation between harm frequency and severity. We estimated the risk from the experiential data and compared these estimates with those provided by the risk assessment matrix. Although we validated the theoretical concern, for these authentic experiential data, the practical scope of the problem was limited. The risk matrix has been widely used in risk assessment. This method should not be abandoned wholesale, but users must address the source of the problem, apply the risk matrix with a full understanding of this problem and use matrix predictions to inform, but not drive decision-making.

Gene set analysis (GSA) methods test the association of sets of genes with a phenotype in gene expression microarray studies. Many GSA methods have been proposed, especially methods for use with a binary phenotype. Equally, if not more importantly however, is the ability to test the enrichment of a gene signature or pathway against the continuous phenotypes which are routinely and commonly observed in, for example, clinicopathological measurements. It is not always easy or meaningful to dichotomize continuous phenotypes into two classes, and attempting to do this may lead to the inaccurate classification of samples, which would affect the downstream enrichment analysis. In the present study, we have build on recent efforts to incorporate correlation structure within gene sets and pathways into the GSA test statistic. To address the issue of continuous phenotypes directly without the need for artificial discrete classification and thus increase the power of the test while ensuring computational efficiency and rigor, new GSA methods that can incorporate a covariance matrix estimator for a continuous phenotype may present an effective approach. We have designed a new method by extending the GSA approach called Linear Combination Test (LCT) from a binary to a continuous phenotype. Simulation studies and a real microarray dataset were used to compare the proposed LCT for a continuous phenotype, a modification of LCT (referred to as LCT₂), and two publicly available GSA methods for continuous phenotypes. We found that the LCT methods performed better than the other two GSA methods; however, this finding should be understood in the context of our specific simulation studies and the real microarray dataset that were used to compare the methods. Free R-codes to perform LCT for binary and continuous phenotypes are available at http://www.ualberta.ca/~yyasui/homepage.html. The R-code to perform LCT for a continuous phenotype is available as Additional file 1.