Ongoing climate change poses a major threat to the soil resources of many African countries that mainly rely on an agricultural economy. While arid and semi-arid lands (ASALs) take up most of Kenya’s land mass, approximately 64% of its total croplands lie within mountainous areas with high rainfall, hence, areas highly vulnerable to water erosion. Flooding of the Great Lakes and increasing desertification of the ASALs are illustrative cases of the implications of recent precipitation dynamics in Kenya. This study applied the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) to estimate future soil erosion rates at the national level based on four Coupled Model Intercomparison Project v5 (CMIP5) models under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. Results showed the current soil loss rate to be at 4.76 t ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ and projected an increase in average rainfall erosivity under the two scenarios, except for RCP-2.6 (2030s) and (2080s) for the MIROC-5 model. Future projections revealed an incremental change in rainfall erosivity from the baseline climate by a cumulative average of 39.9% and 61.1% for all scenarios by the 2030s and 2080s, respectively, while soil loss is likely to increase concomitantly by 29% and 60%, respectively. The CCCMA_CANESM2 model under the RCP 8.5 (2080s) scenario projected the highest erosion rate of 15 t ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ over Kenya, which is a maximum increase of above 200%, with the Rift Valley region recording an increase of up to 100% from 7.05 to 14.66 t ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹. As a first countrywide future soil erosion study, this assessment provides a useful reference for preventing water erosion and improving ecosystem service security.

The Kenya Great Rift Valley (KGRV) region unique landscape comprises of mountainous terrain, large valley-floor lakes, and agricultural lands bordered by extensive Arid and Semi-Arid Lands (ASALs). The East Africa (EA) region has received high amounts of rainfall in the recent past as evidenced by the rising lake levels in the GRV lakes. In Kenya, few studies have quantified soil loss at national scales and erosion rates information on these GRV lakes’ regional basins within the ASALs is lacking. This study used the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) model to estimate soil erosion rates between 1990 and 2015 in the Great Rift Valley region of Kenya which is approximately 84.5% ASAL. The mean erosion rates for both periods was estimated to be tolerable (6.26 t ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ and 7.14 t ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ in 1990 and 2015 respectively) resulting in total soil loss of 116 Mt yr⁻¹ and 132 Mt yr⁻¹ in 1990 and 2015 respectively. Approximately 83% and 81% of the erosive lands in KGRV fell under the low risk category (10 t ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ in both years. The mountainous central parts of the KGRV with Andosol/Nitisols soils and high rainfall experienced a large change of land uses to croplands thus had highest soil loss net change (4.34 t ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹). In both years, forests recorded the lowest annual soil loss rates (<3.0 t ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹) while most of the ASAL districts presented erosion rates (<8 t ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹). Only 34% of all the protected areas were found to have erosion rates <10 t ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ highlighting the need for effective anti-erosive measures.

Buried archeological features show up as crop marks that are mostly visible using high-resolution image data. Such data are costly and restricted to small regions and time domains. However, a time series of freely available medium resolution imagery can be employed to detect crop growth changes to reveal subtle surface marks in large areas. This paper aims to study the classical Chinese settlements of Taosi and Erlitou over large areas using Landsat NDVI time series crop phenology to determine the optimum periods for detection and monitoring of crop anomalies. Burial areas (such as the palace area and the sacrificial area) were selected as the research area while the surrounding empty fields with a low density of ancient features were used as reference regions. Landsat NDVI covering two years’ growth periods of wheat and maize were computed and analyzed using Pearson’s correlation coefficient and Euclidean distance. Similarities or disparities between the burial areas and their empty areas were computed using the Hausdorff distance. Based on the phenology of crop growth, the time series NDVI images of winter wheat and summer maize were generated to analyze crop anomalies in the archeological sites. Results show that the Hausdorff distance was high during the critical stages of water for both crops and that the images of high Hausdorff distance can provide more obvious subsurface archeological information.