Based on daily precipitation from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) data during April–October of the 1997–2014 period, the daily extreme rainfall trends and variability over West Africa are characterized using 90th-percentile threshold at each grid point. The contribution of the extreme rainfall amount reaches ~50–90% in the northern region while it is ~30–50% in the south. The yearly cumulated extreme rainfall amount indicates significant and negative trends in the 6°N–12°N; 6°N–12°N; 17°W–10°W and 4°N–7°N; 4°N–7°N; 6°E–10°E 4°N–7°N; 6°E–10°E 4°N–7°N; 6°E–10°E domains, while the number of days exhibits nonsignificant trends over West Africa. The empirical orthogonal functions performed on the standardized anomalies show four variability modes that include all West Africa with a focus on the Sahelian region, the eastern region including the south of Nigeria, the western part including Guinea, Sierra Leone, Liberia, and Guinea-Bissau, and finally a small region at the coast of Ghana and Togo. These four modes are influenced differently by the large-scale ocean surface and atmospheric conditions in the tropical Atlantic. The results are applicable in planning the risks associated with these climate hazards, particularly on water resource management and civil defense.

The 10-year observations of the atmospheric molar fractions of CO2, CH4 and CO in West Africa were analyzed using a high precision measurement of the Lamto (LTO) station (6 degrees 31N and 5 degrees 02W) in Cote d'Ivoire. At daily scale, high concentrations appear at night with significant peaks around 7 a.m. local time and minimum concentrations in the afternoon for CO2 and CH4. The CO concentrations show two peaks around 8h and 20h corresponding to the maximum in road traffic of a northern motorway located 14km from the station. The long-term increase rates of CH4 (similar to 7ppb year(-1)) and CO2 (similar to 2.24ppm year(-1)) at Lamto are very close to global trends. The variations of the concentrations of the three gases show strong seasonality with a peak in January for all gases and minima in September for CO2 and CH4, and in June for CO. The CO variation suggests a significant impact of fires on the CO, CO2 and CH4 anomalies in the Lamto region during the dry season (December to February). CO and CH4 show strong correlations (at synoptic-scale and monthly based) in January (r=0.84), February (r=0.90), April (r=0.74), November (r=0.79) and December (r=0.72) reflecting similar sources of emission for both gases. The trajectories of polluted air masses at LTO, also indicate continental sources of emission associated with Harmattan winds.

The rainfall and temperature conditions are evaluated for the first time during the 1989–2006 period, in six main cocoa production areas (Abengourou, Agboville, Daloa, Dimbokro, Guiglo, and Soubre) of Côte d’Ivoire using data from SODEXAM (ground-based observation) and the ex-CAISTAB. Statistical analysis shows an important sensitivity of cocoa production to rainfall conditions in all regions. It is worth noting that only the major rainy season from April to July and the rainfall amount of the little dry season from August to September affect the cocoa production for an 80% confidence level. This influence varies from one cacao production area to another. Moreover, the effects related to temperature on the cocoa yield seem to represent a smaller contribution of climate impact than those related to precipitation during the studied period. The temperature change remains in the acceptable range of values, between 25°C and 29°C, which is a favorable condition for cocoa growing. These findings are obtained despite the significant contributions from nonclimatic factors, to year-to-year variability in cocoa production.

The projection of the future climate changes is of paramount importance inasmuch as it contributes to provide useful information for adaptation planning worldwide to local scales. This study investigated the future changes using four temperature related indices based on an ensemble of 14 CORDEX-Africa simulations at 0.44° × 0.44° of resolution under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. These indices indicate moderate extremes over Côte d’Ivoire. The results show an increase in the warm extreme indices such as the warm spell days index (HWFI), very warm days frequency index (TX90P), and the warm nights frequency index (TN90P) over the entire country under both emission scenarios. The increase in these indices was higher under RCP8.5 and reached 85, 72, and 90% for HWFI, TX90P, and TN90P respectively. In addition, the magnitude of the changes is relevant along the coastal areas in the 2031–2060 and 2071–2100 periods. Moreover, the intra period extreme temperature range (ETR) shows future decrease following a south-north gradient with values in the range [−0.5; 1.5°C] over the country during January–March (JFM) and October–December (OND) seasons whereas an increase (~0.5°C) is projected for April–June (AMJ) and July–September (JAS) seasons, particularly in the central and northern parts. The minimum temperature increases faster than the maximum, except in AMJ and JAS in the central and northern regions. On the other hand, the changes in the indices based on the mean values of the reference period (1976–2005) are in concordance to the expected warming at the end of the twenty-first century with important trends. The projected changes are, however, subject to uncertainties, which are higher under RCP8.5 than under RCP4.5 scenarios. Overall, these changes are meaningful as all the 14 CORDEX-Africa simulations agree to an increase of warm extreme temperature.

Dans le but d’évaluer les performances du Modèle Atmosphérique Régional (MAR) sur l’Afrique de l’Ouest, une simulation de dix ans (1983 à 1992) est mise en œuvre et les résultats comparés aux données d’observation du Climatic Research Unit (CRU) et aux champs de forçage numérique du climat ERA-40. La simulation restitue favorablement la circulation régionale ouest-africaine, notamment l’intensité, la dynamique du flux de mousson dans les basses couches, ainsi que les différents régimes de vents zonaux en altitude (Jet d’Est Africain, Jet d’Est Tropical, Jet d’Ouest Subtropical). Le modèle restitue également la distribution spatiale et le cycle saisonnier des précipitations. Cependant, les cumuls annuels de précipitations sont sous estimés sur l’ensemble de l’Afrique de l’Ouest. Le modèle MAR simule également avec quelques difficultés la variabilité interannuelle des précipitations. Toutefois, dans l’ensemble, le modèle régional MAR se révèle un outil appréciable et pertinent dans l’étude des changements climatiques et de leurs impacts en Afrique de l’Ouest.

This study evaluates the performance of two planetary boundary parameterizations in simulating the mean climate of West Africa using the Regional Climate Model version 5 (RegCM5). These planetary boundary parameterizations are the Holtslag scheme and the University of Washington scheme. Two sets of three one-year simulations were carried out at 25 km horizontal resolution with three different initial conditions. The first set of simulations used the Holtslag scheme (hereafter referred to as Hol), while the second used the University of Washington (UW) scheme (hereafter referred to as UW). The results displayed in this study are an average of the three simulations. During the JJAS rainy season, with respect to GPCP, both models overestimated total rainfall in the orographic regions. The UW experiment represented total rainfall fairly well compared to its counterpart, Hol. Both models reproduced convective rainfall well, with a relatively weak dry bias over the Guinean coast subregion. Globally, UW performed better than Hol in simulating precipitation. The pattern of near-surface temperature in both models was well reproduced with a higher bias with Hol than with UW. Indeed, the UW scheme led to a cooling effect owing to the reduction in eddy heat diffusivity in the lower troposphere contributing to reduce the bias. As a consequence, the height of the planetary boundary layer (PBL) was best simulated using the UW scheme but was underestimated compared to ERA5, while using the Hol scheme failed to capture the height of the PBL. This is coherent with the distribution of total cloud cover, which was better simulated with the UW scheme compared to the Hol scheme. This study shows that use of both planetary boundary parameterizations leads to a good simulation of most of the climatological characteristics of the West African region. Nevertheless, use of the UW scheme contributes to a better performance than use of the Hol scheme, and the differentiation between the two schemes is significant along the Guinea Coast and in orographic regions. In these topographically complex regions, UW appears to be more appropriate than Hol. This study emphasizes the importance of planetary boundary parameterizations for accurately simulating climate variables and for improving climate forecasts and projections in West Africa.