Conservation Agriculture (CA) is promoted by research and development (R&D) agencies to sustainably intensify agricultural systems with the goals of improving food security and livelihoods and adapting food systems to global climate change. Despite the many benefits of CA, there are few farmers around the world that have simultaneously implemented all facets of the strategy. In part, this reflects the challenges in applying, adapting, and understanding this complex and multi-dimensional agricultural innovation in the context of diverse farming systems. In this paper, we applied an integrated framework that combines bioeconomic simulation, risk analysis, adoption theory, and impact assessment to investigate how various combinations of CA components (no-tillage, soil cover, crop diversification, plus growing a new crop or variety) performed over a 10-year period in representative farms in a central Mexican case study. We found significant differences in profit, net value, downside risk, and risk-aversion cost between double-component scenarios (and improved CA to a lesser extent) and all other scenarios, which suggested that disaggregating CA into smaller component packages could increase farmer adoption in risky contexts. Our findings provided valuable insights on CA feasibility and could help establish policy and reporting metrics. The study highlighted the need for employing a range of research tools to understand the relative value of agricultural innovations and to identify and reduce trade-offs and uncertainty in farming systems.

Upscaling sustainable intensification (SI) technologies is crucial to enhancing the resilience of fragile farming systems and vulnerable livelihoods of smallholder farmers. It is also critical to shape the future land-use and land-cover changes in a region. Zero-tillage potato cultivation (ZTPC), introduced as an SI intervention in parts of the Indian Sundarbans, has demonstrated promises of rapid upscaling, and thus, changes in the seasonal land-use pattern in the region. This study aims to understand the socioecological complexity of farming systems to comprehend how the nascent stage of ZTPC thrives at the farm level and what preconditions are necessary to upscale them. The objectives are to analyse the farm resource recycling pattern in ZTPC, and map and simulate its system’s complexity to strategize ZTPC upscaling in the region. The analysis of farm resource recycling data reveals that ZTPC stability hinges on managing trade-offs in resource allocations, specifically involving straw, organic manure, sweet water, and family labour. The decision to manage such trade-offs depends on farm type characterizations by their landholdings, distance from the homestead, pond, and cattle ownership, competing crops, and family composition. Using a semiquantitative systems model developed through fuzzy cognitive mapping, the study underscores the significance of effective training, input support, enterprise diversification by introducing livestock, timely tuber supply, access to critical irrigation, and capacity building of local institutions as the essential preconditions to sustain and upscale ZTPC. This research contributes a systems perspective to predict agricultural land use within technology transfer initiatives, providing insights into how farm- and extra-farm factors influence resource allocations for ZTPC. Public extension offices must understand the trade-offs associated with straw, organic matter, and harvested water and design differentiated supports for different farm types. The most compelling interventions to upscale ZTPC includes farm diversification by introducing livestock through institutional convergence, pragmatic agroforestry initiatives to enhance on-farm biomass and fuel production, building awareness and integrating alternative energy use to save straw and cow dung, building social capital to ensure access to sweet irrigation water, and developing and/or strengthening farmer collectives to ensure the supply of quality tuber and marketing of farm produce.

Plantings of forage shrubs such as saltbush (Atriplex spp.) in the drier part of the crop–livestock zone of southern Australia have the potential to help fill feed autumn gaps, provide valuable feed during drought periods, and provide year-round groundcover, shelter for livestock and options for management of saline soils. However, the proportion of farms with forage shrub plantings and the extent of those plantings remain relatively low, with the rate of new plantings slowing over the past decade. Development of new forage-shrub options has been occurring with the aim of improving the feed value and adoption of forage shrubs. Using a whole-farm bio-economic optimisation model for a crop–livestock farming system in the low-rainfall Mallee region of southern Australia (Mallee MIDAS—model of an integrated dryland agricultural system), we explored how key attributes of forage-shrub plantings and the associated pasture understorey, such as biomass growth, digestibility and ease of establishment, can make forage shrub plantings economically more attractive to farmers. We found that saltbush types and forage-shrub options with improved feed quality characteristics will offer the opportunity for improved economic returns and increased profitability from larger plantings compared with existing options. Improving feed quality was more important than increasing the growth rates of saltbush plants. Results still indicate only a niche role in farming systems, with profit typically being greatest when using relatively small areas (<10% of farm area) on the less productive soils of the farm. The results suggest that the profitability of forage shrubs will be greatest for those growers with larger areas of marginal cropping soils and greater reliance on livestock than cropping. Furthermore, the results demonstrate that, if cereal prices or yields fall significantly and/or lamb prices rise, the value of a forage shrub planting can increase substantially. The principles revealed have wide application beyond the region, although these need to be adapted on-farm and widely disseminated before potential contribution to Australian agriculture can be realised.

Evaluation of agricultural Research, Development, Extension and Management requires knowledge of farming systems economics and risk as well as broader adoption drivers. But until now, these factors have not been effectively combined when determining the success of agricultural research projects. To fill this gap, we developed Value-Ag, an integrated modelling platform using whole-farm economic analysis and prediction of the scaling potential in the context of production risk and household dynamics to provide an ex-ante estimate of the benefits of adopting an innovation. In this paper, we use a hypothetical case study to illustrate Value-Ag’s potential to evaluate agricultural innovations in a rigorous, systematic and participatory manner across a range of scenarios, thereby stimulating thinking and learning opportunities with the relevant stakeholders, and increasing the scrutiny of projects so that they deliver greater value for money while fostering a more results-focused culture in developing countries.