Exposure to heat is a growing public health concern as climate change accelerates worldwide. Different socioeconomic and racial groups often face unequal exposure to heat as well as increased heat-related sickness, mortality, and energy costs. We provide new insight into thermal inequities by analyzing 20 Southwestern U.S. metropolitan regions at the census block group scale for three temperature scenarios (average summer heat, extreme summer heat, and average summer nighttime heat). We first compared average temperatures for top and bottom decile block groups according to demographic variables. Then we used spatial regression models to investigate the extent to which exposure to heat (measured by land surface temperature) varies according to income and race. Large thermal inequities exist within all the regions studied. On average, the poorest 10% of neighborhoods in an urban region were 2.2 °C (4 °F) hotter than the wealthiest 10% on both extreme heat days and average summer days. The difference was as high as 3.3–3.7 °C (6–7 °F) in California metro areas such as Palm Springs and the Inland Empire. A similar pattern held for Latinx neighborhoods. Temperature disparities at night were much smaller (usually ~1 °F). Disparities for Black neighborhoods were also lower, perhaps because Black populations are small in most of these cities. California urban regions show stronger thermal disparities than those in other Southwestern states, perhaps because inexpensive water has led to more extensive vegetation in affluent neighborhoods. Our findings provide new details about urban thermal inequities and reinforce the need for programs to reduce the disproportionate heat experienced by disadvantaged communities.

Heat has become a central concern for cities everywhere, but heat governance has historically lagged behind other climate change hazards. This study examines 175 municipal plans from the 50 most populous cities in the United States to understand which aspects of urban heat are included or not in city plans and what factors explain inclusion. We find that a majority of plans mention heat, but few include strategies to address it and even fewer cite sources of information. The term ‘extreme heat event’ (EHE) is significantly more likely to be paired with institutional actions as a part of hazard planning, while ‘urban heat island’ (UHI) is more likely to be paired with green and grey infrastructure interventions as a part of general planning. Disparity and thermal comfort framings are not significantly related to any solutions and are used least. Plan type, followed by environmental networks (e.g. C40, Urban Sustainability Directors Network, Rockefeller 100 Resilient Cities), explain variation in plan content; social and environmental context do not. Findings point to the emergence of two independent heat governance systems, EHE and UHI, and several gaps in heat planning: integration, specificity, solutions, disparity, economy, and thermal comfort.

Regional land surface temperature (LST) maps derived from remote sensing data are most available to cities to assess and respond to heat. Yet, LST only captures one dimension of urban climate. This study investigates the extent to which remote sensing derived estimates of LST are a proxy for multiple climate variables at hyper-local scales (<10s of meters). We compare remotely sensed estimates of LST (RS-LST) to field and simulated LST, MRT, and air temperature (AT), in a neighborhood in Tucson, Arizona, USA. We find that LST, MRT, and ST follow different diurnal trends masked by RS-LST. We also find that three-dimensional urban design is a better predictor of MRT than two-dimensional land cover and albedo – a known determinant of RS-LST. Shade is a better predictor of both simulated LST and MRT than RS-LST. We conclude that RS-LST is not adequate for guiding heat mitigation at hyper-local scales in cities.

Increased temperatures in the Southwestern USA will impact future crop production via multiple pathways. We used four methods to provide an illustrative analysis of midcentury temperature impacts to eight field crops. By midcentury, cropland area thermally suitable for maize cultivation is projected to decrease, while area suitable for cotton cultivation expands northward and nearly doubles in extent. The increase in area exposed to daily temperatures > 35 °C was highest for oat and maize. Estimates of yield reduction from heat stress for both maize and cotton indicate that historically, SW heat stress reduced cotton yield by 26% and maize yield by 18% compared to potential yield. By midcentury, we predict yield reduction from heat stress will reduce cotton and maize yields by 37 and 27%, respectively, compared to potential yield. Our results contradict the notion that the warmest counties cultivating field crops will be the most impacted. Rather, future temperature, total crop area and crop sensitivity contribute to more complex county-level impacts. Identification of representative target environments under future temperature regimes can inform development of farm-based networks to evaluate new crop germplasm with increased heat tolerance and viable adaptation and management strategies to respond effectively to future temperatures.