Long-term data series (1971–2015) of physical and biogeochemical parameters were analyzed in order to assess trends and variability of oceanographic conditions in the northern Adriatic Sea (NAS), a mid-latitude shallow continental shelf strongly impacted by river discharges, human activities and climate changes. Interpolation maps and statistical models were applied to investigate seasonal and spatial variability, as well as decadal trends of temperature, salinity, chlorophyll-a and nutrients. This analysis shows that sea surface temperature increased by +0.36% year⁻¹ over four decades. Annual mean flow of the Po River markedly changed due to the occurrence of periods of persistent drought, whereas the frequency of flow rates higher than 3000 m³ s⁻¹ decreased between 2006 and 2015. Moreover, we observed a long-term decrease in surface phosphate concentrations in Po River water (−1.34% year⁻¹) and in seawater (in summer −2.56% year⁻¹) coupled, however, to a significant increase in nitrate concentration in seawater (+3.80% year⁻¹) in almost all seasons. These changes indicate that the nutrient concentrations in the NAS have been largely modulated, in the last forty years, by the evolution of environmental management practices and of the runoff. This implies that further alteration of the marine environment must be expected as a consequence of the climate changes.

During the last century, human activities have exerted an increasing pressure on coastal ecosystems, primarily inducing their eutrophication, with a more recent partial mitigation of this phenomenon where improvements of environmental management practices were adopted. However, a reanalysis of the pressures on coastal zones and surrounding drainage basins is needed because of the alterations induced nowadays by the climate changes. A comparative analysis of long-term oceanographic and environmental data series (1986–2018) was performed, in order to highlight the effects of anthropogenic and climatic disturbances on the phytoplankton community in the Gulf of Trieste (GoT). After the 1980s, the decline in phytoplankton abundance was matched to increasing periods of low runoff, an overall deficit of the precipitation and to a decrease in phosphate availability in the coastal waters (−0.003 µmol L⁻¹ yr⁻¹), even in the presence of large riverine inputs of nitrogen and silicates. This trend of oligotrophication was reversed in the 2010s by the beginning of a new and unexpected phase of climatic instability, which also caused changes of the composition and seasonal cycle of the phytoplankton community. Beyond the management of nutrient loads, it was shown that climatic drivers such as seawater warming, precipitation and wind regime affect both nutrient balance and phytoplankton community in this coastal zone.