Department of Service Management and Service Studies, Lund University, Sweden; School of Business and Economics, Linnaeus University, Sweden; Western Norway Research Institute
Prof. Dr. Stefan Gössling
Department of Service Management and Service Studies, Lund University, Sweden; School of Business and Economics, Linnaeus University, Sweden; Western Norway Research Institute
The Paris Climate Agreement is based on pledges from 195 countries to substantially reduce emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) to prevent dangerous climate change. The tourism sector has likewise pledged to reduce its GHG emissions (−70% by 2050); however, current emission trends would result in a tripling in the same timeframe. In order to understand how the sector understands the decarbonisation challenge, 17 senior tourism leaders were interviewed with regard to their perspectives on the risks and opportunities associated with climate change impacts and action. Respondents affirmed that the climate is already changing, fuelled by human activities, including tourism, and that its impacts on society and tourism will be largely negative and devastating in some regions. Opinion was divided regarding mitigation timelines, the compatibility of continued tourism growth with Paris Climate Agreement decarbonisation goals, and the role of technology and governance in reducing emissions. The paper examines leaders’ perspectives in terms of “belief systems” that interpret information in decision-making, as well as forms of agnogenesis; this is, the fabrication of uncertainty to justify non-action. Belief systems and agnogenesis are thought to represent important barriers to progress on the decarbonisation of tourism, as they are for the global low-carbon transition.
Length-of-stay (LOS) is a key parameter in destination management that determines the number of guest nights relative to arrival numbers, with concomitant repercussions for revenue generation and other performance indicators. This article investigates the development of LOS for 32 destinations in developed and emerging economies as well as Small Islands and Developing States (SIDS). The analysis is based on UNWTO data for 478.5 million international tourist arrivals, or about 40% of the global total in 2015, for the years 1995–2015. Results show considerable differences in LOS between destinations, with a global trend of falling LOS, by 14.8% over the study period. However, in individual destination countries, LOS was found to be increasing. Analyses of LOS trends reveal that these can neither be explained by distance–decay relationships nor business to leisure arrival ratios. Results are discussed with regard for destination management and revenue optimisation, transport infrastructure needs, as well as sector greenhouse gas emissions.
Relatively little attention has been paid to the existence of subsidies in aviation. As the sector’s importance for economic development is often highlighted, this paper seeks to provide a conceptual overview of the various forms of subsidies in aviation, as a contribution to a more holistic understanding of economic interrelationships. Based on a purposive sampling strategy, existing forms of subsidies are identified and categorized along the value chain. Focus is on industrialized countries, for which more information is available. Results indicate that significant subsidies are extended to manufacturers, infrastructure providers and airlines. These contribute to global economic growth related to aviation, but they also influence capacity in global aviation markets, strengthen the market position of individual airlines, and create conflicts between airlines and the countries they are based in. While the actual scale of subsidies cannot be determined within the scope of this paper, it provides a discussion of options to empirically assess the effects of aviation subsidies on market outcomes. Finally, general conclusions regarding the impact of subsidies on the overall sustainability of the air transport sector are drawn: These include rapidly growing capacity in the aviation system, economic vulnerabilities, and negative climate change related impacts. Results call for a better understanding of the distribution, character and implications of subsidies.
This article presents a model to estimate the energy use and fuel consumption of cruise ships that sail Norwegian waters. Automatic identification system (AIS) data and technical information about cruise ships provided input to the model, including service speed, total power, and number of engines. The model was tested against real-world data obtained from a small cruise vessel and both a medium and large cruise ship. It is sensitive to speed and the corresponding engine load profile of the ship. A crucial determinate for total fuel consumption is also associated with hotel functions, which can make a large contribution to the overall energy use of cruise ships. Real-world data fits the model best when ship speed is 70–75% of service speed. With decreased or increased speed, the model tends to diverge from real-world observations. The model gives a proxy for calculation of fuel consumption associated with cruise ships that sail to Norwegian waters and can be used to estimate greenhouse gas emissions and to evaluate energy reduction strategies for cruise ships.
15 December 2023 in Science of The Total Environment
While air transport decarbonization is theoretically feasible, less attention has been paid to the complexity incurred in various 'transition barriers' that act as roadblocks to net-zero goals. A total of 40 barriers related to mitigation, management, technology and fuel transition, finance, and governance are identified. As these make decarbonization uncertain, the paper analyzes air transport system's growth, revenue, and profitability. Over the period 1978-2022, global aviation has generated marginal profits of US$20200.94 per passenger, or US$202082 billion in total. Low profitability makes it unlikely that the sector can finance the fuel transition cost, at US$0.5-2.1 trillion (Dray et al. 2022). Four radical policy scenarios for air transport futures are developed. All are characterized by "limitations", such as CO2 taxes, a carbon budget, alternative fuel obligations, or available capacity. Scenario runs suggest that all policy scenarios will more reliably lead to net-zero than the continued volume growth model pursued by airlines.
Flooding, as a result of heavy rains and/or storm surges, is a persistent problem in coastal areas. Under scenarios of climate change, there are expectations that flooding events will become more frequent in some areas and potentially more intense. This poses a potential threat to coastal communities relying heavily on coastal resources, such as beaches for tourism. This paper develops a methodology for the assessment of coastal flooding risks, based on an index that compares 16 hydrogeomorphological, biophysical, human exposure and resilience indicators, with a specific focus on tourism. The paper then uses an existing flood vulnerability assessment of 724 beaches in Galicia (Spain) to test the index for tourism. Results indicate that approximately 10% of tourism beaches are at high risk to flooding, including 10 urban and 36 rural beaches. Implications for adaptation and coastal management are discussed.