Global-scale deteriorations in coral reef health have caused major shifts in species composition. One projected consequence is a lowering of reef carbonate production rates, potentially impairing reef growth, compromising ecosystem functionality and ultimately leading to net reef erosion. Here, using measures of gross and net carbonate production and erosion from 19 Caribbean reefs, we show that contemporary carbonate production rates are now substantially below historical (mid- to late-Holocene) values. On average, current production rates are reduced by at least 50%, and 37% of surveyed sites were net erosional. Calculated accretion rates (mm year(-1)) for shallow fore-reef habitats are also close to an order of magnitude lower than Holocene averages. A live coral cover threshold of ~10% appears critical to maintaining positive production states. Below this ecological threshold carbonate budgets typically become net negative and threaten reef accretion. Collectively, these data suggest that recent ecological declines are now suppressing Caribbean reef growth potential.

Ocean warming and acidification threaten the future growth of coral reefs. This is because the calcifying coral reef taxa that construct the calcium carbonate frameworks and cement the reef together are highly sensitive to ocean warming and acidification. However, the global-scale effects of ocean warming and acidification on rates of coral reef net carbonate production remain poorly constrained despite a wealth of studies assessing their effects on the calcification of individual organisms. Here, we present global estimates of projected future changes in coral reef net carbonate production under ocean warming and acidification. We apply a meta-analysis of responses of coral reef taxa calcification and bioerosion rates to predicted changes in coral cover driven by climate change to estimate the net carbonate production rates of 183 reefs worldwide by 2050 and 2100. We forecast mean global reef net carbonate production under representative concentration pathways (RCP) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 will decline by 76, 149, and 156%, respectively, by 2100. While 63% of reefs are projected to continue to accrete by 2100 under RCP2.6, 94% will be eroding by 2050 under RCP8.5, and no reefs will continue to accrete at rates matching projected sea level rise under RCP4.5 or 8.5 by 2100. Projected reduced coral cover due to bleaching events predominately drives these declines rather than the direct physiological impacts of ocean warming and acidification on calcification or bioerosion. Presently degraded reefs were also more sensitive in our analysis. These findings highlight the low likelihood that the world’s coral reefs will maintain their functional roles without near-term stabilization of atmospheric CO₂ emissions. Significance The growth of coral reefs is threatened by the dual stressors of ocean warming and acidification. Despite a wealth of studies assessing the impacts of climate change on individual taxa, projections of their impacts on coral reef net carbonate production are limited. By projecting impacts across 233 different locations, we demonstrate that the majority of coral reefs will be unable to maintain positive net carbonate production globally by the year 2100 under representative concentration pathways RCP4.5 and 8.5, while even under RCP2.6, coral reefs will suffer reduced accretion rates. Our results provide quantitative projections of how different climate change stressors will influence whole ecosystem carbonate production across coral reefs in all major ocean basins.

The ecology of many coral reefs has changed markedly over recent decades in response to various combinations of local and global stressors. These ecological changes have important implications for the abundance of taxa that regulate the production and erosion of skeletal carbonates, and thus for many of the geo‐ecological functions that coral reefs provide, including reef framework production and sediment generation, the maintenance of reef habitat complexity and reef growth potential. These functional attributes underpin many of the ecosystem goods and services that reefs provide to society. Rapidly changing conditions of reefs in the Anthropocene are likely to significantly impact the capacity of reefs to sustain these geo‐ecological functions. Although the Anthropocene footprint of disturbance will be expressed differently across ecoregions and habitats, the end point for many reefs may be broadly similar: (a) progressively shifting towards net neutral or negative carbonate budget states; (b) becoming structurally flatter; and (c) having lower vertical growth rates. It is also likely that a progressive depth‐homogenisation will occur in terms of these processes. The Anthropocene is likely to be defined by an increasing disconnect between the ecological processes that drive carbonate production on the reef surface, and the net geological outcome of that production, that is, the accumulation of the underlying reef structure. Reef structures are thus likely to become increasingly relict or senescent features, which will reduce reef habitat complexity and sediment generation rates, and limit reef potential to accrete vertically at rates that can track rising sea levels. In the absence of pervasive stressors, recovery of degraded coral communities has been observed, resulting in high net‐positive budgets being regained. However, the frequency and intensity of climate‐driven bleaching events are predicted to increase over the next decades. This would increase the spatial footprint of disturbances and exacerbate the magnitude of the changes described here, limiting the capacity of many reefs to maintain their geo‐ecological functions. The enforcement of effective marine protection or the benefits of geographic isolation or of favourable environmental conditions (“refugia” sites) may offer the hope of more optimistic futures in some locations. A >plain language summary is available for this article.