The antiquity of human dispersal into Mediterranean islands and ensuing coastal adaptation have remained largely unexplored due to the prevailing assumption that the sea was a barrier to movement and that islands were hostile environments to early hunter-gatherers [J. F. Cherry, T. P. Leppard,J. Isl. Coast. Archaeol.13, 191–205 (2018),10.1080/15564894.2016.1276489]. Using the latest archaeological data, hindcasted climate projections, and age-structured demographic models, we demonstrate evidence for early arrival (14,257 to 13,182 calendar years ago) to Cyprus and predicted that large groups of people (~1,000 to 1,375) arrived in 2 to 3 main events occurring within <100 y to ensure low extinction risk. These results indicate that the postglacial settlement of Cyprus involved only a few large-scale, organized events requiring advanced watercraft technology. Our spatially debiased and Signor–Lipps-corrected estimates indicate rapid settlement of the island within <200 y, and expansion to a median of 4,000 to 5,000 people (0.36 to 0.46 km⁻²) in <11 human generations (<300 y). Our results do not support the hypothesis of inaccessible and inhospitable islands in the Mediterranean for pre-agropastoralists, agreeing with analogous conclusions for other parts of the world [M. I. Birdet al.,Sci. Rep.9, 8220 (2019),10.1038/s41598-019-42946-9]. Our results also highlight the need to revisit these questions in the Mediterranean and test their validity with new technologies, field methods, and data. By applying stochastic models to the Mediterranean region, we can place Cyprus and large islands in general as attractive and favorable destinations for paleolithic peoples.

Seaborne movement underpins frontier research in prehistoric archaeology, including water-crossings in the context of human dispersals, and island colonisation. Yet, it also controls the degree of interaction between locations, which in turn is essential for investigating the properties of maritime networks. The onset of the Holocene (circa 12,000 years ago) is a critical period for understanding the origins of early visitors/inhabitants to the island of Cyprus in the Eastern Mediterranean in connection with the spread of Neolithic cultures in the region. The research undertaken in this work exemplifies the synergies between archaeology, physical sciences and geomatics, towards providing novel insights on the feasibility of drift-induced seaborne movement and the corresponding trip duration between Cyprus and coastal regions on the surrounding mainland. The overarching objective is to support archaeological inquiry regarding the possible origins of these visitors/inhabitants—Anatolia and/or the Levant being two suggested origins.

The hypothesized main drivers of megafauna extinctions in the late Quaternary have wavered between over-exploitation by humans and environmental change, with recent investigations demonstrating more nuanced synergies between these drivers depending on taxon, spatial scale, and region. However, most studies still rely on comparing archaeologically based chronologies of timing of initial human arrival into naïve ecosystems and palaeontologically inferred dates of megafauna extinctions. Conclusions arising from comparing chronologies also depend on the reliability of dated evidence, dating uncertainties, and correcting for the low probability of preservation (Signor–Lipps effect). While some models have been developed to test the susceptibility of megafauna to theoretical offtake rates, none has explicitly linked human energetic needs, prey choice, and hunting efficiency to examine the plausibility of human-driven extinctions. Using the island of Cyprus in the terminal Pleistocene as an ideal test case because of its late human settlement (~14.2–13.2 ka), small area (~11 000 km ² ), and low megafauna diversity (2 species), we developed stochastic models of megafauna population dynamics, with offtake dictated by human energetic requirements, prey choice, and hunting-efficiency functions to test whether the human population at the end of the Pleistocene could have caused the extinction of dwarf hippopotamus ( Phanourios minor ) and dwarf elephants ( Palaeoloxodon cypriotes ). Our models reveal not only that the estimated human population sizes ( n = 3000–7000) in Late Pleistocene Cyprus could have easily driven both species to extinction within < 1000 years, the model predictions match the observed, Signor–Lipps-corrected chronological sequence of megafauna extinctions inferred from the palaeontological record ( P. minor at ~12–11.1 ka, followed by P. cypriotes at ~10.3–9.1 ka).

Picrolite artefacts comprise some of the most distinctive material remains in the prehistory of the island of Cyprus, in the Eastern Mediterranean. Picrolite exploitation dates from at least 12,000 years ago for the manufacture of personal ornaments and items with a symbolic function. It is commonly assumed that picrolite nodules were collected in secondary deposits on an ad hoc basis. This narrative, however, ignores the fact that picrolite carriers can only be found in very specific locations on the island, discrete from each other. Here we report initial outcomes of the application of handheld portable X-ray fluorescence (HHpXRF) and synchrotron-based X-ray fluorescence spectroscopy (SR-μXRF) to the analysis of picrolite raw materials performed at the newly opened PUMA beamline of the SOLEIL Synchrotron Radiation Facility. Our work refines the basic characteristics of the elemental constituents of the picrolite raw material and highlights key micro-structural differences between two distinct source regions on the Troodos Massif in western Cyprus. Picrolite source characterisation is expected to contribute significant new knowledge to the study of rare raw material consumption, prehistoric social organisation, networking and possible long-distance exchange of this idiosyncratic raw material within and beyond the island’s geographic boundaries.

Predictive models have become an integral part of archaeological research, particularly in the discovery of new archaeological sites. In this paper, we apply predictive modeling to map high potential Pleistocene archaeological locales on the island of Cyprus in the Eastern Mediterranean. The model delineates landscape characteristics that denote areas with high potential to unearth Pleistocene archaeology while at the same time highlighting localities that should be excluded. The predictive model was employed in surface surveys to systematically access high probability locales on Cyprus. A number of newly identified localities suggests that the true density of mobile hunter-gatherer sites on Cyprus is seriously underestimated in current narratives. By adding new data to this modest corpus of early insular sites, we are able to contribute to debates regarding island colonisation and the role of coastal environments in human dispersals to new territories.