Theory predicts that selection for pathogen virulence and horizontal transmission is highest at the onset of an epidemic but decreases thereafter, as the epidemic depletes the pool of susceptible hosts. We tested this prediction by tracking the competition between the latent bacteriophage λ and its virulent mutant λcI857 throughout experimental epidemics taking place in continuous cultures of Escherichia coli. As expected, the virulent λcI857 is strongly favored in the early stage of the epidemic, but loses competition with the latent virus as prevalence increases. We show that the observed transient selection for virulence and horizontal transmission can be fully explained within the framework of evolutionary epidemiology theory. This experimental validation of our predictions is a key step towards a predictive theory for the evolution of virulence in emerging infectious diseases. Why are some pathogens more virulent than others? Theory predicts that pathogens that ‘keep their host alive’ can sometimes outcompete virulent pathogens in times when transmission to new susceptible hosts is unlikely. Yet, this prospect of finding a new susceptible host changes itself throughout an epidemic. In the early stage of an epidemic susceptible hosts are abundant and virulent pathogens that invest more into horizontal transmission should win the competition. Later on, the spread of the infection reduces the pool of susceptible hosts and may reverse the selection on virulence. This may favor benign pathogens after the acute phase of the epidemic. We model this transient benefit for virulence and predict both the epidemiology and the evolution of pathogens during an epidemic. To put these predictions to the test we monitor the competition of the temperate bacterial virus λ and its virulent mutant λcI857 in experimental epidemics. Our experimental results agree remarkably well with all our theoretical predictions. This demonstrates the ability of evolutionary epidemiology to predict selection for virulence in an ongoing epidemic.

Dengue is a mosquito-transmitted virus infection that causes epidemics of febrile illness and hemorrhagic fever across the tropics and subtropics worldwide. Annual epidemics are commonly observed, but there is substantial spatiotemporal heterogeneity in intensity. A better understanding of this heterogeneity in dengue transmission could lead to improved epidemic prediction and disease control. Time series decomposition methods enable the isolation and study of temporal epidemic dynamics with a specific periodicity (e.g., annual cycles related to climatic drivers and multiannual cycles caused by dynamics in population immunity). We collected and analyzed up to 18 y of monthly dengue surveillance reports on a total of 3.5 million reported dengue cases from 273 provinces in eight countries in Southeast Asia, covering ∼10⁷ km². We detected strong patterns of synchronous dengue transmission across the entire region, most markedly during a period of high incidence in 1997–1998, which was followed by a period of extremely low incidence in 2001–2002. This synchrony in dengue incidence coincided with elevated temperatures throughout the region in 1997–1998 and the strongest El Niño episode of the century. Multiannual dengue cycles (2–5 y) were highly coherent with the Oceanic Niño Index, and synchrony of these cycles increased with temperature. We also detected localized traveling waves of multiannual dengue epidemic cycles in Thailand, Laos, and the Philippines that were dependent on temperature. This study reveals forcing mechanisms that drive synchronization of dengue epidemics on a continental scale across Southeast Asia. Significance Persons living in the tropics and subtropics are at risk for dengue fever and dengue hemorrhagic fever, and large epidemics occur unexpectedly that can overburden healthcare systems. The spatial and temporal dynamics of dengue transmission are poorly understood, limiting disease control efforts. We compiled a large-scale dataset and analyzed continental-scale patterns of dengue in Southeast Asia. Our analysis shows that periods of elevated temperatures can drive the occurrence of synchronous dengue epidemics across the region. This multicountry collaborative study improved insight that may lead to improved prediction of dengue transmission patterns and more effective disease surveillance and control efforts.

In West Africa, lineage splitting between the M and S molecular forms of the major Afro‐tropical malaria mosquito, Anopheles gambiae (Diptera: Culicidae), is thought to be driven by ecological divergence, occurring mainly at the larval stage. Here, we present evidence for habitat segregation between the two molecular forms in and around irrigated rice fields located within the humid savannahs of western Burkina Faso. Longitudinal sampling of adult mosquitoes emerging from a range of breeding sites distributed along a transect extending from the heart of the rice field area into the surrounding savannah was conducted from June to November 2009. Analysis revealed that the two molecular forms and their sibling species Anopheles arabiensis are not randomly distributed in the area. A major ecological gradient was extracted in relation to the perimeter of the rice fields. The M form was associated with larger breeding sites mostly consisting of rice paddies, whereas the S form and An. arabiensis were found to depend upon temporary, rain‐filled breeding sites. These results support hypotheses about larval habitat segregation and confirm the suggestion that the forms have different larval habitat requirements. Segregation appears to be clearly linked to anthropogenic permanent habitats and the community structure they support.

Mixed-genotype parasite infections are common in nature. Theoretical studies analyze the effects of such infections over evolutionary time and predict an increase in virulence due to the competitive advantage of virulent parasites. In contrast, experimental studies compare the overall virulence of mixed and single infections within one generation. Although these within-generation comparisons have limited relevance to existing theory, they demonstrate that within-host parasite interactions are not restricted to competition for resources, as envisaged by theory. Instead, mixed infections may result in phenotypic changes in growth rate or impaired immune clearance. Developing and using a two-parasite epidemiological model with recovery, we confirm that within-host competition for resources selects for higher virulence. However, parasite phenotypic plasticity and impaired host immunity can select for lower virulence. Because these latter two mechanisms would be detected by experimentalists as an increase in pathology, our results warn against the temptation to draw inferences on virulence evolution on the basis of single-generation experiments.

Fourteen isolates of Rice yellow mottle virus (RYMV) were selected as representative of the genetic variability of the virus in Africa from a total set of 320 isolates serologically typed or partially sequenced. The 14 isolates were fully sequenced and analyzed together with two previously reported sequences. RYMV had a genomic organization similar to that of Cocksfoot mottle sobemovirus . The average nucleotide diversity among the 16 isolates of RYMV was 7%, and the maximum diversity between any two isolates was 10%. A strong conservative selection was apparent on both synonymous and nonsynonymous substitutions, through the amino acid replacement pattern, on the genome size, and through the limited number of indel events. Furthermore, there was a lack of positive selection on single amino acid sites and no evidence of recombination events. RYMV diversity had a pronounced and characteristic geographic structure. The branching order of the clades correlated with the geographic origin of the isolates along an east-to-west transect across Africa, and there was a marked decrease in nucleotide diversity moving westward across the continent. The insertion-deletion polymorphism was related to virus phylogeny. There was a partial phylogenetic incongruence between the coat protein gene and the rest of the genome. Overall, our results support the hypothesis that RYMV originated in East Africa and then dispersed and differentiated gradually from the east to the west of the continent.

Although multihost complex life cycles (CLCs) are common in several distantly related groups of parasites, their evolution remains poorly understood. In this article, we argue that under particular circumstances, adding a second host to a single-host life cycle is likely to enhance transmission (i.e., reaching the target host). For instance, in several situations, the propagules of a parasite exploiting a predator species will achieve a higher host-finding success by encysting in a prey of the target predator than by other dispersal modes. In such a case, selection should favor the transition from a single- to a two-host life cycle that includes the prey species as an intermediate host. We use an optimality model to explore this idea, and we discuss it in relation to dispersal strategies known among free-living species, especially animal dispersal. The model found that selection favored a complex life cycle only if intermediate hosts were more abundant than definitive hosts. The selective value of a complex life cycle increased with predation rates by definitive hosts on intermediate hosts. In exploring trade-offs between transmission strategies, we found that more costly trade-offs made it more difficult to evolve a CLC while less costly trade-offs between traits could favor a mixed strategy.