Agricultural irrigation depends heavily on freshwater resources. Under the context of increasingly severe water shortages, studying the relationship among crop water requirements (ET_c), actual crop evapotranspiration (ET_a), irrigation water requirements (I_r), yield, and water use efficiency (WUE) would be beneficial to improve the agricultural application of irrigation water. Based on the daily data of 26 meteorological stations in Heilongjiang Province from 1960 to 2015, this study used the calibrated AquaCrop model to calculate the ET_c, ET_a, I_r, and yield of maize (Zea mays L.) in different hydrological years (extremely dry years, dry years, normal years, and wet years) along with WUE to evaluate the mass of yield produced per unit mass of crop evapotranspiration (ET) under rainfed and irrigated scenarios. The results showed that ET_c and ET_a decreased first and then increased from the west to the east during the four types of hydrological years. I_r exhibited a decreasing trend from the west to the east. Compared with the irrigation scenario, the rainfed scenario’s average yield only decreased by 2.18, 0.55, 0.03, and 0.05 ton/ha, while the WUE increased by 0.32, 0.4, 0.33, and 0.21 kg/m³ in the extremely dry years, dry years, normal years, and wet years, respectively. The results indicated that in the normal and wet years, the WUE was high in the central regions, and irrigation did not significantly increase yield; further, we determined that irrigation should not be considered in these two hydrological years in Heilongjiang Province. In the extremely dry and dry years, irrigation was necessary because it increased the yield, even though the WUE decreased. This study provides a theoretical basis for studying the regional irrigation schedule in Heilongjiang Province.

Understanding future changes in water supply and requirement under climate change is of great significance for long-term water resource management and agricultural planning. In this study, daily minimum temperature (T_min), maximum temperature (T_max), solar radiation (Rad), and precipitation for 26 meteorological stations under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 of MIRCO5 for the future period 2021–2080 were downscaled by the LARS-WG model, daily average relative humidity (RH) was estimated using the method recommended by FAO-56, and reference crop evapotranspiration (ET₀), crop water requirement (ET_c), irrigation water requirement (I_r), effective precipitation (P_e), and coupling degree of ET_c and P_e (CD) for soybean during the growth period were calculated by the CROPWAT model in Heilongjiang Province, China. The spatial and temporal distribution of these variables and meteorological factors were analyzed, and the response of soybean water supply and requirement to climate change was explored. The result showed that the average T_min, T_max, and Rad under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 increased by 0.2656 and 0.5368 °C, 0.3509 and 0.5897 °C, and 0.0830 and 0.0465 MJ/m², respectively, while the average RH decreased by 0.0920% and 0.0870% per decade from 2021 to 2080. The annual average ET₀, ET_c, P_e, and I_r under RCP4.5 for 2021–2080 were 542.89, 414.35, 354.10, and 102.44 mm, respectively, and they increased by 1.92%, 1.64%, 2.33%, and −2.12% under the RCP8.5, respectively. The ranges of CD under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 were 0.66–0.95 and 0.66–0.96, respectively, with an average value of 0.84 for 2021–2080. Spatially, the CD showed a general trend of increasing first and then decreasing from west to east. In addition, ET₀, ET_c, and P_e increased by 9.55, 7.16, and 8.77 mm per decade, respectively, under RCP8.5, while I_r decreased by 0.65 mm per decade. Under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, ET_c, P_e, and I_r showed an overall increasing trend from 2021 to 2080. This study provides a basis for water resources management policy in Heilongjiang Province, China.