We sought (i) to validate a new prediction rule of mortality (Progetto Nazionale Emorragia Digestiva (PNED) score) on an independent population with non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) and (ii) to compare the accuracy of the Italian PNED score vs. the Rockall score in predicting the risk of death. We conducted prospective validation of analysis of consecutive patients with UGIB at 21 hospitals from 2007 to 2008. Outcome measure was 30-day mortality. All the variables used to calculate the Rockall score as well as those identified in the Italian predictive model were considered. Calibration of the model was tested using the χ² goodness-of-fit and performance characteristics with receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) was used to quantify the diagnostic accuracy of the two predictive models. Over a 16-month period, data on 1,360 patients were entered in a national database and analyzed. Peptic ulcer bleeding was recorded in 60.7% of cases. One or more comorbidities were present in 66% of patients. Endoscopic treatment was delivered in all high-risk patients followed by high-dose intravenous proton pump inhibitor in 95% of them. Sixty-six patients died (mortality 4.85%; 3.54–5.75). The PNED score showed a high discriminant capability and was significantly superior to the Rockall score in predicting the risk of death (AUC 0.81 (0.72–0.90) vs. 0.66 (0.60–0.72), P8 was 16.05. The Italian 10-point score for the prediction of death was successfully validated in this independent population of patients with non-variceal gastrointestinal bleeding. The PNED score is accurate and superior to the Rockall score. Further external validation at the international level is needed.

Background and study aims: Capsule endoscopy is considered the diagnostic procedure of choice in patients with obscure gastrointestinal bleeding (OGIB). Double-balloon endoscopy (DBE) offers both diagnostic and therapeutic potential, but is invasive, complex, and time-consuming. The aim was to evaluate diagnostic agreement between capsule endoscopy and DBE in patients with OGIB, and secondarily the diagnostic gain of DBE when capsule endoscopy detected only blood or clots in the small-bowel lumen. Methods: Multicenter prospective study carried out at six institutions in Italy. Results: 193 patients (119 men, mean age 61.6 ± 16.2) first underwent capsule endoscopy and then DBE. The most frequent positive findings at capsule endoscopy were vascular lesions (74 patients, 38.3 %), blood or clot in the lumen (34, 17.6 %), and tumor mass (20, 10.4 %). The most frequent findings at DBE were vascular lesions (72 patients, 37.3 %), neoplasia (30, 15.5 %) and ulcers/inflammatory lesions (12, 6.2 %). Overall kappa coefficient was 0.46 (95 %CI 0.38 – 0.54), with maximum concordance for vascular (0.72 [95 %CI 0.59 – 0.84]) and inflammatory (0.78 [0.58 – 0.99]) lesions and minimum for polyps (0.46 [0.16 – 0.80]). Blood in the lumen was the only positive finding at capsule endoscopy in 34 cases; of these, 12 had negative DBE findings whereas 10 had vascular lesions, 6 neoplasia, 1 ulcer, and 5 diverticula. Conclusion: Capsule endoscopy and DBE have good agreement for vascular and inflammatory lesions but not for polyps or neoplasia. DBE provides valuable adjunctive information, particularly in patients with neoplasia or polyp at capsule endoscopy. DBE clarified the origin of bleeding in two-thirds of patients with capsule endoscopy showing only blood in the lumen.