This contribution aims to provide an in-depth outlook of the phase-out of coal-fired energy generation in Italy. In particular, this article analyzes the state-of-the-art with regard to both the current role of coal generation and the performance of the main legal and regulatory tools as implemented in Italy thus far to ensure the closure of all coal power plants by 2025 as announced in the Italian National Climate and Energy Plan. Based on existing data and scenarios on both electricity production and demand trends, this article unfolds the marginal role played by coal-fired generation in the Italian energy mix. In addition, this paper aims to highlight the outstanding technical uncertainties and regulatory hurdles in the way towards de-carbonization of energy generation in Italy. This paper argues that several remarkable improvements are needed in order to avoid over-generation (especially through natural gas), to upscale the penetration of renewable energy sources, and develop the necessary infrastructures to adequately deliver on the full phasing-out of coal within the expected timeframes.

In Italy, the de-carbonization process descending from the National Energy Strategy (NES) of the November 2017 and the National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs) of December 2019 has led two specific effects: the progressive ending of coal use as a fuel for the production of electricity and the emanation of authorization acts for the conversion to natural gas of existing coal-fired power plants and/or for the construction of new power plants powered by natural gas. These new plants will be technologically advanced and designed to guarantee the safety of the national electricity grid in periods of greatest energy demand and will have to support the growing part of energy produced with plants powered by renewable energy sources (especially wind and photovoltaic). This reference context will necessarily have to take into account the recent gas supply difficulties due to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, which could lead to a reconsideration of the projects for the construction of new gas plants by focusing on other energy sources. This paper hence aims to quantify and to evaluate the effective environmental benefits for atmospheric emissions, related to the replacement of coal with natural gas. Starting from the electrical powers replaced and installed, the potential reductions in greenhouse gas emissions will be examined, comparing the current emission situation in terms of CO₂, with the future scenarios deriving from the construction of thermoelectric plants whose projects are currently under authorization.