Following the impact of droughts witnessed during the last decade there is an urgent need to develop a drought management strategy, policy framework, and action plan for Jordan. This study aims to provide a historical baseline using the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and meteorological drought maps, and to investigate the spatial and temporal trends using long-term historical precipitation records. Specifically, this study is based on the statistical analysis of 38 years of monthly rainfall data, gathered from all 29 meteorological stations that cover Jordan. The Mann–Kendall test and linear regression analysis were used to uncover evidence of long-term trends in precipitation. Drought indices were used for calculating the meteorological SPI on an annual (SPI12), 6-months (SPI6), and 3-months basis (SPI3). At each level, every drought event was characterized according to its duration, interval, and intensity. Then, drought maps were generated using interpolation kriging to investigate the spatial extent of drought events, while drought patterns were temporally characterized using multilinear regression and spatial grouped using the hierarchical clustering technique. Both annual and monthly trend analyses and the Mann–Kendall test indicated significant reduction of precipitation in time for all weather stations except for Madaba. The rate of decrease is estimated at approximately 1.8 mm/year for the whole country. The spatial SPI krig maps that were generated suggest the presence of two drought types in the spatial dimension: Local and national. Local droughts reveal no actual observed trends or repeatable patterns of occurrence. However, looking at meteorological droughts across all time scales indicated that Jordan is facing an increasing number of local droughts. With a probability of occurrence of once every two years to three years. On the other hand, extreme national droughts occur once every 15 to 20 years and last for two or more consecutive years. Linear trends indicated significant increase in drought magnitude by time with a rate of 0.02 (p < 0.0001). Regression analysis indicated that draught in Jordan is time dependent (p < 0.001) rather than being spatially dependent (p > 0.99). Hierarchical clustering was able to group national draughts into three zones, namely the northern zone, the eastern zone, and the southern zone. This study highlights the urgent need for a monitoring program to investigate local and national drought impacts on all sectors, as well as the development of a set of proactive risk management measures and preparedness plans for various physiographic regions.

Water scarcity is one of the largest global risks in terms of potential impact over the next decade as it affects every continent is manifested by partial or no satisfaction of expressed demand, economic competition for water quantity or quality, disputes between users, irreversible depletion of groundwater, and negative impacts on the environment. Jordanian water crises are exacerbating all of the time due to increased water demands derived from high population growth, sudden fluxes of refugees, economic development, and increased frequency of drought events. These forces stress the urgent need to develop drought adaptation planning based on vulnerability mapping correlated to prolonged weather events. The objective of this research is thus to generate a drought vulnerability map with an emphasis on the severity and probability of drought occurrence, and to propose adaption measures based on groundwater sector impact chain analysis by incorporating numerical scorings for exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacities at groundwater basin and Jordanian district levels. Drought impacts on groundwater basins were investigated based on measurements of severity and probability of drought occurrence, and drought exposure over the whole country computed by means of a combined drought index (CDI) that included the precipitation drought index, temperature drought index, and vegetation drought index from 1980 to 2017. Results indicated that drought in Jordan is characterised by a temporal and spatial variability regarding probability and severity. The most prolonged drought events range from mild to moderate, with long periods of exposure that may extend for up to 13 consecutive years. Due to high groundwater basin sensitivity and low adaptive capacity, the groundwater systems in Jordan are fragile and highly vulnerable to drought impacts, being subject to either reduction in quantity and/or deterioration in quality over time. The most vulnerable groundwater basins are the Azraq and Dead Sea regions, while Disi and Yarmouk are also highly vulnerable groundwater basins based on the weak enforcement of transboundary agreements. The proposed drought risk management system based on this research includes proactive and contingency plans enabled by policies and legal frameworks at the national level to ensure sustainable water resilience and governance.

Water scarcity, aggravated by climate change impacts, threatens all sectors in arid regions and hampers sustainable development plans. This work aims to assess the potential impacts of climate change on surface water resources of Amman-Zerqa Basin, Jordan, using the Soil Water Assessment Tool model (SWAT) and outputs from the Downscaled Regional Circulation Model. Future scenarios were developed based on combining two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5). A reference scenario from 1973 to 2015 was used to compare the current climate with future climates and their impacts on hydrological processes. Hydrologic modeling outputs showed very good performance ratings for calibration and validation periods. Statistical bias correction of the Downscale Regional Circulation Model (GCM) indicated that linear scaling for precipitation data was the best-performing bias correction method, along with variance scaling and distribution mapping methods for minimum and maximum temperature, respectively. The coupled future model simulations indicated a reduction in crucial water balance components under all modeled scenarios. The simulated reductions range between 3.7% and 20.7% for precipitation, 22.3–41.6% for stream flow, 25.0–47.0% for surface runoff, 0.5–13.4% for evapotranspiration, and 21.5–41.4% for water yield, from conservative to the severe scenario, respectively. In conclusion, spatial analyses indicated the presence of three zones of impact. Thus, future climate and hydrological adaptation measures should focus on the provided zoning.