Rationale: Early warning system (EWS) scores are used by hospital care teams to recognize early signs of clinical deterioration and trigger more intensive care. Objective: To systematically review the evidence on the ability of early warning system scores to predict a patient’s risk of clinical deterioration and the impact of early warning system implementation on health outcomes and resource utilization. Methods: We searched the MEDLINE, CINAHL, and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials databases through May 2014. We included English-language studies of early warning system scores used with adults admitted to medical or surgical wards. We abstracted study characteristics, including population, setting, sample size, duration, and criteria used for early warning system scoring. For predictive ability, the primary outcomes were modeled for discrimination on 48-hour mortality, cardiac arrest, or pulmonary arrest. Outcomes for the impact of early warning system implementation included 30-day mortality, cardiovascular events, use of vasopressors, respiratory failure, days on ventilator, and resource utilization. We assessed study quality using a modified Quality in Prognosis Studies assessment tool where applicable. Measurements and Main Results: Of 11,183 citations studies reviewed, one controlled trial and 20 observational studies of 13 unique models met our inclusion criteria. In eight studies, researchers addressed the predictive ability of early warning system tools and found a strong predictive value for death (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUROC], 0.88–0.93) and cardiac arrest (AUROC, 0.74–0.86) within 48 hours. In 13 studies (one controlled trial and 12 pre–post observational studies), researchers addressed the impact on health outcomes and resource utilization and had mixed results. The one controlled trial was of good quality, and the researchers found no difference in mortality, transfers to the ICU, or length of hospital stay. The pre–post designs of the remaining studies have significant methodological limitations, resulting in insufficient evidence to draw conclusions. Conclusions: Early warning system scores perform well for prediction of cardiac arrest and death within 48 hours, although the impact on health outcomes and resource utilization remains uncertain, owing to methodological limitations. Efforts to assess performance and effectiveness more rigorously will be needed as early warning system use becomes more widespread.

Multimorbidity–having two or more coexisting chronic conditions–is highly prevalent, costly, and disabling to older adults. Questions remain regarding chronic diseases accumulation over time and whether this differs by racial and ethnic background. Answering this knowledge gap, this study identifies differences in rates of chronic disease accumulation and multimorbidity development among non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic black, and Hispanic study participants starting in middle-age and followed up to 16 years. We analyzed data from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS), a biennial, ongoing, publicly-available, longitudinal nationally-representative study of middle-aged and older adults in the United States. We assessed the change in chronic disease burden among 8,872 non-Hispanic black, non-Hispanic white, and Hispanic participants who were 51–55 years of age at their first interview any time during the study period (1998–2014) and all subsequent follow-up observations until 2014. Multimorbidity was defined as having two or more of seven somatic chronic diseases: arthritis, cancer, heart disease (myocardial infarction, coronary heart disease, angina, congestive heart failure, or other heart problems), diabetes, hypertension, lung disease, and stroke. We used negative binomial generalized estimating equation models to assess the trajectories of multimorbidity burden over time for non-Hispanic black, non-Hispanic white, and Hispanic participants. In covariate-adjusted models non-Hispanic black respondents had initial chronic disease counts that were 28% higher than non-Hispanic white respondents (IRR 1.279, 95% CI 1.201, 1.361), while Hispanic respondents had initial chronic disease counts that were 15% lower than non-Hispanic white respondents (IRR 0.852, 95% CI 0.775, 0.938). Non-Hispanic black respondents had rates of chronic disease accumulation that were 1.1% slower than non-Hispanic whites (IRR 0.989, 95% CI 0.981, 0.998) and Hispanic respondents had rates of chronic disease accumulation that were 1.5% faster than non-Hispanic white respondents (IRR 1.015, 95% CI 1.002, 1.028). Using marginal effects commands, this translates to predicted values of chronic disease for white respondents who begin the study period with 0.98 chronic diseases and end with 2.8 chronic diseases; black respondents who begin the study period with 1.3 chronic diseases and end with 3.3 chronic diseases; and Hispanic respondents who begin the study period with 0.84 chronic diseases and end with 2.7 chronic diseases. Middle-aged non-Hispanic black adults start at a higher level of chronic disease burden and develop multimorbidity at an earlier age, on average, than their non-Hispanic white counterparts. Hispanics, on the other hand, accumulate chronic disease at a faster rate relative to non-Hispanic white adults. Our findings have important implications for improving primary and secondary chronic disease prevention efforts among non-Hispanic black and Hispanic Americans to stave off greater multimorbidity-related health impacts.

The development of functional limitations among adults aged 65 or older has profound effects on individual and population resources. Improved understanding of the relationship between functional limitations and co-occurring chronic diseases (multimorbidity) is an emerging area of interest. The objective of this study was to investigate the association between multimorbidity and functional limitations among community-dwelling adults 65 or older in the United States and explore factors that modify this association. We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of adults aged 65 or older using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) from 2005 through 2012. We used negative binomial regression to estimate the association between multimorbidity (≥2 concurrent diseases) and functional limitations and to determine whether the association differed by sex or age. The prevalence of multimorbidity in this population was 67% (95% confidence interval [CI], 65%-68%). Each additional chronic condition was associated with an increase in the number of functional limitations, and the association was stronger among those aged 75 or older than among those aged 65 to 74. For those aged 65 to 74, each additional chronic condition was associated with 1.35 (95% CI, 1.27-1.43) times the number of functional limitations for men and 1.62 times (95% CI, 1.31-2.02) the number of functional limitations for women. For those 75 or older, the associations increased to 1.71 (95% CI, 1.35-2.16) for men and 2.06 (95% CI, 1.51-2.81) for women for each additional chronic condition. Multimorbidity was associated with increases in functional limitations, and the associations were stronger among women than among men and among adults aged 75 or older than among those aged 65 to 74. These findings underscore the importance of addressing age and sex differences when formulating prevention strategies.

Background: Guidelines recommend routine screening for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in high-risk patients, but the strength of evidence supporting these recommendations is unclear. Purpose: To review the benefits and harms of HCC screening in patients with chronic liver disease. Data Sources: MEDLINE, PsycINFO, and ClinicalTrials.gov from inception to April 2014; Cochrane databases to June 2013; reference lists; and technical advisors. Study Selection: English-language trials and observational studies comparing screening versus no screening, studies of harms, and trials comparing different screening intervals. Data Extraction: Mortality and adverse events were the outcomes of interest. Individual-study quality and the overall strength of evidence were dual-reviewed using published criteria. Data Synthesis: Of 13 801 citations, 22 studies met inclusion criteria. The overall strength of evidence on the effects of screening was very low. One large trial of patients with hepatitis B found decreased HCC mortality with periodic ultrasonographic screening (rate ratio, 0.63 [95% CI, 0.41 to 0.98]), but the study was limited by methodological flaws. Another trial in patients with hepatitis B found no survival benefit with periodic α-fetoprotein screening. In 18 observational studies, screened patients had earlier-stage HCC than clinically diagnosed patients, but lead- and length-time biases confounded the effects on mortality. Two trials found no survival differences between shorter (3- to 4-month) and longer (6- to 12-month) screening intervals. Harms of screening were not well-studied. Limitations: Only English-language studies were included. The evidence base is limited by methodological issues and a paucity of trials. Conclusion: There is very-low-strength evidence about the effects of HCC screening on mortality in patients with chronic liver disease. Screening tests can identify early-stage HCC, but whether systematic screening leads to a survival advantage over clinical diagnosis is uncertain. Primary Funding Source: U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs Quality Enhancement Research Initiative.

Multimorbidity (multiple co-occurring chronic diseases) is associated with greater likelihood of disability and mortality, above and beyond the risk attributable to individual diseases. This study identifies prevalent multimorbidity patterns and evaluates their association with disability among U.S. older adults. Prospective cohort study using longitudinal Health and Retirement Study data (2010–2012). We included 8,782 participants aged 65 years and older and used negative binomial models to examine prospective disability, measured by the combined activities of daily living–instrumental activities of daily living index. Multimorbidity was defined as the co-occurring combination of at least two of the following chronic diseases: hypertension, cardiovascular disease, lung disease, diabetes, cancer, arthritis, stroke, cognitive impairment, or high depressive symptoms (CES-D score ≥ 4). We found 291 unique disease combinations with 1 to 1,167 older adults per disease combination. The three most prevalent combinations were: (a) hypertension and arthritis ( n = 1,167); (b) hypertension, arthritis, and cardiovascular disease ( n = 510); and (c) hypertension, arthritis, and diabetes ( n = 430). Only one of the prevalent combinations included depressive symptoms (in combination with arthritis, hypertension; n = 129). This group showed the highest level of activities of daily living–instrumental activities of daily living disability compared to healthy participants or participants with a single disease (either included in the combination or different from diseases in the combination) even after adjusting for age, gender, education, race/ethnicity, and body mass index. Clinicians stand to gain from a better understanding of which disease combinations are more and less disabling among older adults. Understanding how multimorbidity combinations relate to functional status is an important step towards reducing disability and sustaining independent living among older adults.