Cancer claims millions of lives yearly worldwide. While many therapies have been made available in recent years, by in large cancer remains unsolved. Exploiting computational predictive models to study and treat cancer holds great promise in improving drug development and personalized design of treatment plans, ultimately suppressing tumors, alleviating suffering, and prolonging lives of patients. A wave of recent papers demonstrates promising results in predicting cancer response to drug treatments while utilizing deep learning methods. These papers investigate diverse data representations, neural network architectures, learning methodologies, and evaluations schemes. However, deciphering promising predominant and emerging trends is difficult due to the variety of explored methods and lack of standardized framework for comparing drug response prediction models. To obtain a comprehensive landscape of deep learning methods, we conducted an extensive search and analysis of deep learning models that predict the response to single drug treatments. A total of 61 deep learning-based models have been curated, and summary plots were generated. Based on the analysis, observable patterns and prevalence of methods have been revealed. This review allows to better understand the current state of the field and identify major challenges and promising solution paths.

Transfer learning, which transfers patterns learned on a source dataset to a related target dataset for constructing prediction models, has been shown effective in many applications. In this paper, we investigate whether transfer learning can be used to improve the performance of anti-cancer drug response prediction models. Previous transfer learning studies for drug response prediction focused on building models to predict the response of tumor cells to a specific drug treatment. We target the more challenging task of building general prediction models that can make predictions for both new tumor cells and new drugs. Uniquely, we investigate the power of transfer learning for three drug response prediction applications including drug repurposing, precision oncology, and new drug development, through different data partition schemes in cross-validation. We extend the classic transfer learning framework through ensemble and demonstrate its general utility with three representative prediction algorithms including a gradient boosting model and two deep neural networks. The ensemble transfer learning framework is tested on benchmark in vitro drug screening datasets. The results demonstrate that our framework broadly improves the prediction performance in all three drug response prediction applications with all three prediction algorithms.

Background: Motivated by the size and availability of cell line drug sensitivity data, researchers have been developing machine learning (ML) models for predicting drug response to advance cancer treatment. As drug sensitivity studies continue generating drug response data, a common question is whether the generalization performance of existing prediction models can be further improved with more training data. Methods: We utilize empirical learning curves for evaluating and comparing the data scaling properties of two neural networks (NNs) and two gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT) models trained on four cell line drug screening datasets. The learning curves are accurately fitted to a power law model, providing a framework for assessing the data scaling behavior of these models. Results: The curves demonstrate that no single model dominates in terms of prediction performance across all datasets and training sizes, thus suggesting that the actual shape of these curves depends on the unique pair of an ML model and a dataset. The multi-input NN (mNN), in which gene expressions of cancer cells and molecular drug descriptors are input into separate subnetworks, outperforms a single-input NN (sNN), where the cell and drug features are concatenated for the input layer. In contrast, a GBDT with hyperparameter tuning exhibits superior performance as compared with both NNs at the lower range of training set sizes for two of the tested datasets, whereas the mNN consistently performs better at the higher range of training sizes. Moreover, the trajectory of the curves suggests that increasing the sample size is expected to further improve prediction scores of both NNs. These observations demonstrate the benefit of using learning curves to evaluate prediction models, providing a broader perspective on the overall data scaling characteristics. Conclusions: A fitted power law learning curve provides a forward-looking metric for analyzing prediction performance and can serve as a co-design tool to guide experimental biologists and computational scientists in the design of future experiments in prospective research studies.

The drug discovery process currently employed in the pharmaceutical industry typically requires about 10 years and $2–3 billion to deliver one new drug. This is both too expensive and too slow, especially in emergencies like the COVID-19 pandemic. In silico methodologies need to be improved both to select better lead compounds, so as to improve the efficiency of later stages in the drug discovery protocol, and to identify those lead compounds more quickly. No known methodological approach can deliver this combination of higher quality and speed. Here, we describe an Integrated Modeling PipEline for COVID Cure by Assessing Better LEads (IMPECCABLE) that employs multiple methodological innovations to overcome this fundamental limitation. We also describe the computational framework that we have developed to support these innovations at scale, and characterize the performance of this framework in terms of throughput, peak performance, and scientific results. We show that individual workflow components deliver 100 × to 1000 × improvement over traditional methods, and that the integration of methods, supported by scalable infrastructure, speeds up drug discovery by orders of magnitudes. IMPECCABLE has screened ∼ 1011 ligands and has been used to discover a promising drug candidate. These capabilities have been used by the US DOE National Virtual Biotechnology Laboratory and the EU Centre of Excellence in Computational Biomedicine.

The rapid evolution of machine learning has led to a proliferation of sophisticated models for predicting therapeutic responses in cancer. While many of these show promise in research, standards for clinical evaluation and adoption are lacking. Here, we propose seven hallmarks by which predictive oncology models can be assessed and compared. These are Data Relevance and Actionability, Expressive Architecture, Standardized Benchmarking, Generalizability, Interpretability, Accessibility and Reproducibility, and Fairness. Considerations for each hallmark are discussed along with an example model scorecard. We encourage the broader community, including researchers, clinicians, and regulators, to engage in shaping these guidelines toward a concise set of standards. Significance: As the field of artificial intelligence evolves rapidly, these hallmarks are intended to capture fundamental, complementary concepts necessary for the progress and timely adoption of predictive modeling in precision oncology. Through these hallmarks, we hope to establish standards and guidelines that enable the symbiotic development of artificial intelligence and precision oncology.