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Proactive management of wastewater pipes requires the development of deterioration models that support maintenance and inspection prioritization. The complexity and the lack of understanding of the deterioration process make this task difficult. A semiparametric Bayesian geoadditive quantile regression approach is applied to estimate the deterioration of wastewater pipe from a set of covariates that are allowed to affect linearly and nonlinearly the response variable. Categorical covariates only affect linearly the response variable. In addition, geospatial information embedding the unknown and unobserved influential covariates is introduced as a surrogate covariate that capture global autocorrelations and local heterogeneities. Boosting optimization algorithm is formulated for variable selection and parameter estimation in the model. Three geoadditive quantile regression models (5%, 50% and 95%) are developed to evaluate the band of uncertainty in the prediction of the pipes scores. The proposed model is applied to the wastewater system of the city of Calgary. The results show that an optimal selection of covariates coupled with appropriate representation of the dependence between the covariates and the response increases the accuracy in the estimation of the uncertainty band of the response variable. The proposed modeling approach is useful for the prioritization of inspections and provides knowledge for future installations. In addition, decision makers will be informed of the probability of occurrence of extreme deterioration events when the identified causal factors, in the 5% and 95% quantiles, are observed on the field.
Ngandu Balekelayi; Solomon Tesfamariam. Geoadditive Quantile Regression Model for Sewer Pipes Deterioration Using Boosting Optimization Algorithm. Sustainability 2020, 12, 8733 .
AMA StyleNgandu Balekelayi, Solomon Tesfamariam. Geoadditive Quantile Regression Model for Sewer Pipes Deterioration Using Boosting Optimization Algorithm. Sustainability. 2020; 12 (20):8733.
Chicago/Turabian StyleNgandu Balekelayi; Solomon Tesfamariam. 2020. "Geoadditive Quantile Regression Model for Sewer Pipes Deterioration Using Boosting Optimization Algorithm." Sustainability 12, no. 20: 8733.
Corrosion of buried pipes is complex and difficult to model without considering corrosiveness of the soil. To estimate the external corrosion of buried and aged oil and gas pipelines, a Bayesian spectral analysis regression is proposed. The depth of the corrosion pit progression on a bare metallic pipe is linked to the soil factors that are assumed to influence its rate. The time the pipe is exposed to these factors and the annual precipitations are added to the selected soil influencing factors. The relationship between the identified factors (covariates) and the depth of the corrosion pit (response variable) is expressed as a semiparametric. Thus, the complex electrochemical process of corrosion is represented mathematically. The proposed approach is applied to the data published online by the National Institute of Standard and Technology in the US. The results allow a better quantification of the uncertainty in the predictions for each factor and an improvement in the performance of statistical prediction models of external depth of the corrosion pit.
Ngandu Balekelayi; Solomon Tesfamariam. External corrosion pitting depth prediction using Bayesian spectral analysis on bare oil and gas pipelines. International Journal of Pressure Vessels and Piping 2020, 188, 104224 .
AMA StyleNgandu Balekelayi, Solomon Tesfamariam. External corrosion pitting depth prediction using Bayesian spectral analysis on bare oil and gas pipelines. International Journal of Pressure Vessels and Piping. 2020; 188 ():104224.
Chicago/Turabian StyleNgandu Balekelayi; Solomon Tesfamariam. 2020. "External corrosion pitting depth prediction using Bayesian spectral analysis on bare oil and gas pipelines." International Journal of Pressure Vessels and Piping 188, no. : 104224.