The strategies, plans and legislation on energy market development and decarbonization in the European Union (EU) developed in recent years, such as the directives implementing the package “Clean energy for all Europeans”, aim at promoting not only renewable energy sources, but also new institutions that involve the development of local energy markets and a greater role for citizens in managing their own energy generation. At the same time, Poland remains the economy most dependent on coal and one of the largest air polluters in the EU. In order to minimize this problem and to meet the direction of energy development in the EU, Poland decided to establish, among other things, an energy cooperative. It is intended to fill the gap in the development of the civil dimension of energy on a local scale and at the same time improve efficiency in the use of the potential of renewable energy sources in rural areas. The authors of the paper seek to verify the extent to which this new institution, which is part of the idea of a local energy community, one of the driving forces for the implementation of the objectives and directions of development of “clean energy” set by the EU, has a chance to develop. The research took into account the characteristics of energy producers and consumers in rural areas, economic preferences provided for by law, relating to the functioning of an energy cooperative and the existing alternative solutions dedicated to prosumers. A dedicated mathematical model in the mixed integer programming technology was used to optimize the functioning of an energy cooperative, and more than 5000 simulations were carried out, with a typical optimization task performed as part of the research with about 50,000 variables. The conclusions and simulations make it possible to confirm the thesis that profitable energy cooperatives can be established in rural areas, with the objective of minimizing the sum of energy purchases from the distribution network and losses on the energy deposit (virtual network storage) (the energy deposit (or network deposit) should be understood as energy introduced to the grid during generation surpluses for its subsequent consumption, taking into account the discount factor).

The decentralization of the large-scale energy sector, its replacement with pro-ecological, dispersed production sources and building a citizen dimension of the energy sector are the directional objectives of the energy transformation in the European Union. Building energy self-sufficiency at a local level is possible, based on the so-called Energy Communities, which include energy clusters and energy cooperatives. Several dozen pilot projects for energy clusters have been implemented in Poland, while energy cooperatives, despite being legally sanctioned and potentially a simpler formula of operation, have not functioned in practice. This article presents the coopetitive nature of Energy Communities. The authors analysed the principles and benefits of creating Energy Communities from a regulatory and practical side. An important element of the analysis is to indicate the managerial, coopetitive nature of the strategies implemented within the Energy Communities. Their members, while operating in a competitive environment, simultaneously cooperate to achieve common benefits. On the basis of the actual data of recipients and producers, the results of simulations of benefits in the economic dimension will be presented, proving the thesis of the legitimacy of creating coopetitive structures of Energy Communities.

The European Green Deal aims to make Europe the world’s first climate-neutral continent by 2050 by shifting to a clean circular economy, combating biodiversity loss and reducing pollution levels. In Poland, whose economy invariably remains one of the most dependent on coal consumption in Europe, institutional responses to the above EU objectives have taken the shape of energy cooperatives aimed at filling the gaps in the development of the civic dimension of energy on a local scale and the use of potential renewable energy sources in rural areas, including in relation to the agricultural sector. This article is a continuation of the authors’ previous research work, which has so far focused on the analysis of the development of profitability of Polish institutions that fit into the European idea of a “local energy community”, which includes energy cooperatives. In this research paper, they present the results of subsequent research work and analyses performed on the basis of it which, on the one hand, complement the previously developed optimization model with variables concerning actual energy storage and, on the other hand, analyze the profitability of the operation of energy cooperatives in the conditions of the “capacity market”. The latter was actually introduced in Poland at the beginning of 2021. The research took account of the characteristics of energy producers and consumers in rural areas of Poland, the legally defined rules for the operation of the capacity market and the institutional conditions for the operation of energy cooperatives that can use the potential of energy storage. A dedicated mathematical model in mixed integer programming technology was used, enriched with respect to previous research, making it possible to optimize the operation of energy cooperative with the use of actual energy storage (batteries). Conclusions from the research and simulation show that the installation of energy storage only partially minimizes the volume of energy drawn from the grid in periods when fees related to the capacity market are in force (which should be avoided due to higher costs for consumers). The analysis also indicates that a key challenge is the proper parameterization of energy storage.

The European Union has set itself ambitious emission-reduction targets—becoming carbon neutral by 2050. The member states’ energy systems are increasingly switching to renewable and decentralized configurations, in line with the EU guidelines. This is accompanied by the support for “prosumers”—entities that both consume and generate renewable energy. In parallel, a number of prosumer support schemes are emerging as a result of the search for optimal development paths. At the same time, the COVID-19 pandemic has significantly affected the power market, causing huge anomalies mainly in demand and billing. The objective of the study was to assess the impact of the proposed changes in the prosumer schemes on the level of benefits prosumers obtained, including the performance of sensitivity analyses reflected in different levels and stability of electricity consumption resulting from extreme situations caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Numerical computer simulations for five predefined prosumer support schemes were carried out in the R-project environment. The basic conclusion is that the prosumer benefits most from participating in the applicable discount mechanism, in which the unused energy is fed into a network storage, from which the prosumer can take 70% or 80% of the stored volume. The research also allows us to conclude that in Poland the COVID-19 pandemic has had a very significant impact on the level and profile of energy demand due to the introduction of restrictions on selected areas and economic sectors. The reduced demand is particularly visible in services (−58%), tourism and sport (−39%), and education (−19%). The analysis is an important contribution to the search for an optimal model of prosumer market development in Europe.

The COVID-19 pandemic with subsequent economic fluctuations during consecutive epidemics waves and preventive measures in the form of lockdowns, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have had a meaningful impact on the European economy, including the energy market. These events have caused an increase in the prices of many products, including fossil fuels, and also a lack of their availability. The changes inspired the authors to conduct research on the current situation in Poland in the field of renewable energy and coal. The paper describes the research on the impact of the development of RES (mainly photovoltaic sources) on the change in the energy generation profile in the case of Poland. The article analyzes the impact of RES (renewable energy sources) on the reduction of CO₂ emissions. The conducted analysis was based on the historical similarity of the replacement of conventional (carbon) sources by PV (photovoltaics) by determining in how many cases (%), a specific carbon source will be displaced. Based on the prepared forecast, it was determined that by the end of the year, the installed capacity in PV will reach the level of 11,213 MWp (in wind energy, it will be 7875 MWp). Replacement (reduction of consumption) of approximately 1.5 million Mg of hard coal and 2.87 million Mg of lignite was concluded to be possible (~4.4% and 6.3% of the hard-coal and lignite volume used for energy production). Limiting this volume of hard coal and lignite will also reduce CO₂ emissions in the entire NPS by 5.24 million Mg (−5%) in 2022.

The paper conducts a literature review of applications of autoregressive methods to short-term forecasting of power demand. This need is dictated by the advancement of modern forecasting methods and their achievement in good forecasting efficiency in particular. The annual effectiveness of forecasting power demand for the Polish National Power Grid for the next day is approx. 1%; therefore, the main objective of the review is to verify whether it is possible to improve efficiency while maintaining the minimum financial outlays and time-consuming efforts. The methods that fulfil these conditions are autoregressive methods; therefore, the paper focuses on autoregressive methods, which are less time-consuming and, as a result, cheaper in development and applications. The prepared review ranks the forecasting models in terms of the forecasting effectiveness achieved in the literature on the subject, which enables the selection of models that may improve the currently achieved effectiveness of the transmission system operator. Due to the applied approach, a transparent set of forecasting methods and models was obtained, in addition to knowledge about their potential in the context of the needs for short-term forecasting of electricity demand in the national power system. The articles in which the MAPE error was used to assess the quality of short-term forecasts were analyzed. The investigation included 47 articles, several dozen forecasting methods, and 264 forecasting models. The articles date from 1997 and, apart from the autoregressive methods, also include the methods and models that use explanatory variables (non-autoregressive ones). The input data used come from the period 1998–2014. The analysis included 25 power systems located on four continents (Asia, Europe, North America, and Australia) that were published by 44 different research teams. The results of the review show that in the autoregressive methods applied to forecasting short-term power demand, there is a potential to improve forecasting effectiveness in power systems. The most promising prognostic models using the autoregressive approach, based on the review, include Fuzzy Logic, Artificial Neural Networks, Wavelet Artificial Neural Networks, Adaptive Neurofuse Inference Systems, Genetic Algorithms, Fuzzy Regression, and Data Envelope Analysis. These methods make it possible to achieve the efficiency of short-term forecasting of electricity demand with hourly resolution at the level below 1%, which confirms the assumption made by the authors about the potential of autoregressive methods. Other forecasting models, the effectiveness of which is high, may also prove useful in forecasting by electricity system operators. The paper also discusses the classical methods of Artificial Intelligence, Data Mining, Big Data, and the state of research in short-term power demand forecasting in power systems using autoregressive and non-autoregressive methods and models.