The climate drives species distribution and genetic diversity; the latter defines the adaptability of populations and species. The ongoing climate crisis induces tree decline in many regions, compromising the mitigation potential of forests. Scientific‐based strategies for prioritizing forest tree populations are critical to managing the impact of climate change. Identifying future climate refugia, which are locations naturally buffering the negative impact of climate change, may facilitate local conservation. In this work, we conducted the populations' prioritization for Castanea sativa (sweet chestnut), a Neogene relict growing in the Caucasus global biodiversity hotspot. We generated genetic and ecological metrics for 21 sites in Georgia and Azerbaijan, which cover the natural range of sweet chestnut across the region. We demonstrated that climate primarily drives the pattern of genetic diversity in C. sativa, proved with a significant isolation‐by‐environment model. In future, climate change may significantly reorganize the species' genetic diversity, inducing even some genetic loss, especially in the very distinct eastern fringe of the species range in Azerbaijan. Based on our combined approach, we mapped populations suitable for ex situ and in situ conservation, accounting for genetic variability and the location of future climate refugia.

Scots pine is one of the most widely occurring pines, but future projections suggest a large reduction in its range, mostly at the southern European limits. A significant part of its range is located in the Caucasus, a global hot-spot of diversity. Pine forests are an important reservoir of biodiversity and endemism in this region. We explored demographic and biogeographical processes that shaped the genetic diversity of Scots pine in the Caucasus ecoregion and its probable future distribution under different climate scenarios. We found that the high genetic variability of the Caucasian populations mirrors a complex glacial and postglacial history that had a unique evolutionary trajectory compared to the main range in Europe. Scots pine currently grows under a broad spectrum of climatic conditions in the Caucasus, which implies high adaptive potential in the past. However, the current genetic resources of Scots pine are under high pressure from climate change. From our predictions, over 90% of the current distribution of Scots pine may be lost in this century. By threatening the stability of the forest ecosystems, this would dramatically affect the biodiversity of the Caucasus hot-spot.

The aim of this study was the biometrical comparison of Abies pinsapo Boiss., Abies maroccana Trab. and Abies tazaotana Côzar ex Villar from Spain and Morocco. The morphological and anatomical analysis of the needle characters of these firs revealed significant taxonomic differences. The results showed considerable distances between regions and very small differences among the Moroccan fir taxa. The examination of the needles and earlier genetic analysis did not provide evidence for distinguishing A. tazaotana at the species level.

In the present study, a genetic analysis of nuclear microsatellites was conducted in Abies cilicica populations growing in West Taurus, East Taurus, and Lebanon mountains to obtain evidence for significant genetic differentiation. Despite range fragmentation, all examined populations tended to maintain a relatively high level of genetic diversity (H _E = 0.724) and showed moderate genetic differentiation (F _ST = 0.134) that is frequently noted in Mediterranean tree species. However, significant inbreeding, bottleneck effect, and low effective population sizes were detected, that may negatively affect species genetic resources. Bayesian clustering revealed three distinct groups, “West Taurus”, “East Taurus,” and “Lebanon”, which reflect geographic structure of the species natural range. Minor genetic admixture between Lebanese and East Taurus populations of A. cilicica was found, but no genetic admixture between Lebanese populations and West Taurus. We argue that significant genetic differentiation discovered among areas of species occurrence is probably due to the effect of long-lasting genetic isolation that started in that region along with the Pleistocene climatic alternation and was further enhanced with human-induced deforestations.