As droughts become longer and more intense, impacts on terrestrial primary productivity are expected to increase progressively. Yet, some ecosystems appear to acclimate to multiyear drought, with constant or diminishing reductions in productivity as drought duration increases. We quantified the combined effects of drought duration and intensity on aboveground productivity in 74 grasslands and shrublands distributed globally. Ecosystem acclimation with multiyear drought was observed overall, except when droughts were extreme (i.e., ≤1-in-100-year likelihood of occurrence). Productivity losses after four consecutive years of extreme drought increased by ~2.5-fold compared with those of the first year. These results portend a foundational shift in ecosystem behavior if drought duration and intensity increase, from maintenance of reduced functioning over time to progressive and profound losses of productivity when droughts are extreme.

The increasing prevalence of drought events in grasslands and shrublands worldwide potentially has impacts on soil organic carbon (SOC). We leveraged the International Drought Experiment to study how SOC, including particulate organic carbon (POC) and mineral-associated organic carbon (MAOC) concentrations, responds to extreme drought treatments (1-in-100-year) for 1 to 5 years at 19 sites worldwide. In more mesic areas (aridity index > 0.65), SOC and POC concentrations decreased by 7.9% (±3.9) and 15.9% (±6.2) with drought, respectively, but there were no impacts on MAOC concentrations. However, drought had no impact on SOC, POC, or MAOC concentrations in drylands (aridity index < 0.65). The response of SOC to drought varied along an aridity gradient, concomitant with interannual precipitation variability and standing SOC concentration gradients. These findings highlight the differing response magnitudes of POC and MAOC concentrations to drought and the key regulating role of aridity.

Sustaining grassland production in a changing climate requires an understanding of plant adaptation strategies, including trait plasticity under warmer and drier conditions. However, our knowledge to date disproportionately relies on aboveground responses, despite the importance of belowground traits in maintaining aboveground growth, especially in grazed systems. We subjected a perennial pasture grass, Festuca arundinacea, to year-round warming (+3 °C) and cool-season drought (60% rainfall reduction) in a factorial field experiment to test the hypotheses that: (i) drought and warming increase carbon allocation belowground and shift root traits towards greater resource acquisition and (ii) increased belowground carbon reserves support post-drought aboveground recovery. Drought and warming reduced plant production and biomass allocation belowground. Drought increased specific root length and reduced root diameter in warmed plots but increased root starch concentrations under ambient temperature. Higher diameter and soluble sugar concentrations of roots and starch storage in crowns explained aboveground production under climate extremes. However, the lack of association between post-drought aboveground biomass and belowground carbon and nitrogen reserves contrasted with our predictions. These findings demonstrate that root trait plasticity and belowground carbon reserves play a key role in aboveground production during climate stress, helping predict pasture responses and inform management decisions under future climates.

Stability can be desirable for many natural and social systems. Temporal stability, the invariability of a system over time, can be enhanced by resisting displacement during perturbations, accelerating recovery after them, or both^1-4. Likewise, resilience (sensu proximity to unperturbed levels after a perturbation^5-10) also has components of withstanding (resistance) and recovering after perturbations^11,12. Here we develop and test new predictions for how temporal stability and resilience depend on their resistance and recovery components. We find that temporal stability could often be predicted from resistance, even without information about how quickly the system recovers. By contrast, resilience is predicted to depend at least as much on recovery as on resistance, as in earlier theory^11,12. Using plant productivity data from the world's longest-running biodiversity experiment, we find that long-term temporal stability, quantified over a quarter century at the ecosystem or species level, is predicted with moderate accuracy from single-year estimates of resistance alone, with only slight improvement by also considering recovery. Resilience was predicted with moderate accuracy by a combination of resistance and recovery at the ecosystem level. We also find that ecosystem drought resistance can be forecasted by monitoring temporal stability before the drought. Our results reveal that long-term temporal stability and short-term resistance may often be predicted from one another and clarify how resistance and recovery can be leveraged to enhance the stability of both natural and managed systems.