OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to create prediction models for outcome parameters by decision tree analysis based on clinical and laboratory data in patients with aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH).METHODS: The database consisted of clinical and laboratory parameters of 548 patients with aSAH who were admitted to the Neurocritical Care Unit, University Hospital Zurich. To examine the model performance, the cohort was randomly divided into a derivation cohort (60% [n = 329]; training data set) and a validation cohort (40% [n = 219]; test data set). The classification and regression tree prediction algorithm was applied to predict death, functional outcome, and ventriculoperitoneal (VP) shunt dependency. Chi-square automatic interaction detection was applied to predict delayed cerebral infarction on days 1, 3, and 7.RESULTS: The overall mortality was 18.4%. The accuracy of the decision tree models was good for survival on day 1 and favorable functional outcome at all time points, with a difference between the training and test data sets of < 5%. Prediction accuracy for survival on day 1 was 75.2%. The most important differentiating factor was the interleukin-6 (IL-6) level on day 1. Favorable functional outcome, defined as Glasgow Outcome Scale scores of 4 and 5, was observed in 68.6% of patients. Favorable functional outcome at all time points had a prediction accuracy of 71.1% in the training data set, with procalcitonin on day 1 being the most important differentiating factor at all time points. A total of 148 patients (27%) developed VP shunt dependency. The most important differentiating factor was hyperglycemia on admission.CONCLUSIONS: The multiple variable analysis capability of decision trees enables exploration of dependent variables in the context of multiple changing influences over the course of an illness. The decision tree currently generated increases awareness of the early systemic stress response, which is seemingly pertinent for prognostication.

BACKGROUND: The Barrow Neurological Institute (BNI) score, measuring maximal thickness of aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH), has previously shown to predict symptomatic cerebral vasospasms (CVSs), delayed cerebral ischemia (DCI), and functional outcome. OBJECTIVE: To validate the BNI score for prediction of above-mentioned variables and cerebral infarct and evaluate its improvement by integrating further variables which are available within the first 24 h after hemorrhage. METHODS: We included patients from a single center. The BNI score for prediction of CVS, DCI, infarct, and functional outcome was validated in our cohort using measurements of calibration and discrimination (area under the curve [AUC]). We improved it by adding additional variables, creating a novel risk score (measure by the dichotomized Glasgow Outcome Scale) and validated it in a small independent cohort. RESULTS: Of 646 patients, 41.5% developed symptomatic CVS, 22.9% DCI, 23.5% cerebral infarct, and 29% had an unfavorable outcome. The BNI score was associated with all outcome measurements. We improved functional outcome prediction accuracy by including age, BNI score, World Federation of Neurologic Surgeons, rebleeding, clipping, and hydrocephalus (AUC 0.84, 95% CI 0.8-0.87). Based on this model we created a risk score (HATCH—Hemorrhage, Age, Treatment, Clinical State, Hydrocephalus), ranging 0 to 13 points. We validated it in a small independent cohort. The validated score demonstrated very good discriminative ability (AUC 0.84 [95% CI 0.72-0.96]). CONCLUSION: We developed the HATCH score, which is a moderate predictor of DCI, but excellent predictor of functional outcome at 1 yr after aSAH.

Objective: To investigate the frequency, time-course and predictors of intracerebral haemorrhage (ICH), recurrent convexity subarachnoid haemorrhage (cSAH), and ischemic stroke after cSAH associated with cerebral amyloid angiopathy (CAA). Methods: We performed a systematic review and international individual patient-data pooled analysis in patients with cSAH associated with probable or possible CAA diagnosed on baseline MRI using the modified Boston criteria. We used Cox proportional hazards models with a frailty term to account for between-cohort differences. Results: We included 190 patients (mean age 74.5 years; 45.3% female) from 13 centers with 385 patient-years of follow-up (median 1.4 years). The risks of each outcome (per patient-year) were: ICH 13.2% (95% CI 9.9–17.4); recurrent cSAH 11.1% (95% CI 7.9–15.2); combined ICH, cSAH, or both 21.4% (95% CI 16.7–26.9), ischemic stroke 5.1% (95% CI 3.1–8) and death 8.3% (95% CI 5.6–11.8). In multivariable models, there is evidence that patients with probable CAA (compared to possible CAA) had a higher risk of ICH (HR 8.45, 95% CI 1.13–75.5, p = 0.02) and cSAH (HR 3.66, 95% CI 0.84–15.9, p = 0.08) but not ischemic stroke (HR 0.56, 95% CI 0.17–1.82, p = 0.33) or mortality (HR 0.54, 95% CI 0.16–1.78, p = 0.31). Conclusions: Patients with cSAH associated with probable or possible CAA have high risk of future ICH and recurrent cSAH. Convexity SAH associated with probable (vs possible) CAA is associated with increased risk of ICH, and cSAH but not ischemic stroke. Our data provide precise risk estimates for key vascular events after cSAH associated with CAA which can inform management decisions.

Timely treatment of aneurysmal subarachnoid haemorrhage (aSAH) is key to prevent further rupture and poor outcome. We evaluated complications and outcome adjusting for time from haemorrhage to treatment. Retrospective analysis of aSAH patients admitted between 2006 and 2020. Data was collected using standardized case report forms. We compared risk factors using multivariable logistic regression. We included 853 patients, 698 (81.8%) were treated within 24 h. Patients with higher Hunt and Hess grades were admitted and treated significantly faster than those with lower grades (overall p-value < 0.001). Fifteen patients (1.8%) rebled before intervention. In the multivariable logistic analysis adjusting for timing, Barrow Neurological Institute score and intracerebral haemorrhage were significantly associated with rebleeding (overall p-value 0.006; OR 3.12, 95%CI 1.09–8.92, p = 0.03, respectively) but timing was not. Treatment > 24 h was associated with higher mortality and cerebral infarction in only the subgroup of lower grades aSAH (OR 3.13, 1.02–9.58 95%CI, p-value = 0.05; OR 7.69, 2.44–25.00, p-value < 0.001, respectively). Therefore treatment > 24 h after rupture is associated with higher mortality and cerebral infarction rates in lower grades aSAH. Delay in treatment primarily affects lower grade aSAH patients. Patients with lower grade aSAH ought to be treated with the same urgency as higher-grade aSAH.