This work focuses on the selection of new areas for shellfish farming along the coast of the Northern Adriatic Sea (Italy). Shellfish site suitability was assessed by means of a methodology based on Spatial Multi-Criteria Evaluation (SMCE), which provided the framework to combine mathematical models and operational oceanography products. Intermediate level criteria considered in the analysis included optimal growth conditions, environmental interactions, and socio-economic evaluation (e.g. organic carbon deposition; distance to harbour). Results showed that the whole coastal area comprised within 0 and 3 nm is highly suitable for farming of mussel, while the area comprised between 3 and 12 nm is divided between a highly suitable northern part, and a less suitable southern one. Seven different scenarios of development of shellfish aquaculture industry were explored. The introduction of a new species, and the assessment of the exposure to storm events are specific aspects taken into account in development scenarios. Results show that the degree of suitability for shellfish aquaculture in this area would not change dramatically with the introduction of oyster farming. Furthermore, results highlight that: (i) the growth potential in this area is high; (ii) the space with suitability index >0.5 increases when prioritizing the optimal growth condition criteria, and (iii) the socio-economic is the most restrictive Intermediate Level Criteria. Results were discussed by deriving general lessons concerning the use of SMCE in aquaculture space allocation, from the specific application in the Northern Adriatic Sea. Challenges and opportunities related to the proposed methodological framework, with particular reference to the use of resources provided by remote sensing and operational oceanography by means of mathematical models, were also discussed. Results can support a science-based identification of allocated zones for aquaculture in order to avoid conflicts, and promote sustainable aquaculture in the Mediterranean Sea, where the space for these activities is becoming increasingly limited.

Aim: The introduction of non‐indigenous species (NIS) via man‐made corridors connecting previously disparate oceanic regions is increasing globally. However, the environmental and anthropogenic factors facilitating invasion dynamics and their interactions are still largely unknown. This study compiles and inputs available data for the NIS bivalve Brachidontes pharaonis across the invaded biogeographic range in the Mediterranean basin into a species distribution model to predict future spread under a range of marine scenarios.Location: Mediterranean Sea.Methods: A systematic review produced the largest presence database ever assembled to inform the selection of biological, chemical and physical factors linked to the spread of B. pharaonis through the Suez Canal. We carried out a sensitivity analysis to simulate current and future trophic and salinity scenarios. A species distribution model was run to determine key drivers of invasion, quantify interactive impacts arising from a range of trophic states, salinity conditions and climatic scenarios and forecast future trajectories for the spread of NIS into new regions under multiple‐parameter scenarios (based on the main factors identified from the systematic review).Results: Impacts on invasion trajectory arising from climate change and interactions with increasing salinity from the new opening of the canal were the primary drivers of expansion across the basin, the effects of which were further enhanced by eutrophication. Predictions of the current distribution were most accurate when multiple stressors were used to drive the model. A habitat suitability index developed at a subcontinental scale from model outputs identified novel favourable conditions for future colonization at specific locations under 2030 and 2050 climatic scenarios.Main conclusions: Future expansion of B. pharaonis will be enhanced by climate‐facilitated increased sea temperature, interacting with increasing pressures from salinity and eutrophication. The spatially explicit risk output maps of invasions represent a powerful visual product for use in communication of the spread of NIS and decision‐support tools for scientists and policymakers. The suggested approach, the observed distribution pattern and driving processes can be applied to other NIS species and regions by providing novel forecasts of species occurrences under future multiple stressor scenarios and the location of suitable recipient habitats with respect to anthropogenic and environmental parameters.

Farm site selection plays a critical role in determining the productivity, environmental impact, and interactions of aquaculture activities with ecosystem services. Satellite Remote Sensing (SRS) provide spatially extensive datasets at high temporal and spatial resolution, which can be useful for aquaculture site selection. In this paper we mapped a finfish aquaculture Suitability Index (SI) applying the Spatial Multi-criteria Evaluation (SMCE) methodology. The robustness of the outcome of the SMCE was investigated using Uncertainty Analysis (UA), and in parallel we evaluate a set of alternative scenarios, aimed at minimizing the subjectivity associated with the decision process. The index is based on the outputs of eco-physiological models, which were forced using time series of sea surface temperature data, and on data concerning Significant Wave Height (SWH), distance to harbor, current sea uses, and cumulative impacts. The methodology was applied to map the suitability for farming of European seabass (Dicentrarchus labrax) and gilthead seabream (Sparus aurata) within the Italian Economic Exclusive Zone (EEZ), under three scenarios: Blue Growth, Economic and Environment. Tyrrhenian and Ionian coastal areas were found to be more suitable, compared to the Northern Adriatic and southern Sicilian ones. In the latter, and in the western Sardinia, the index is also affected by higher uncertainty. The application presented suggests that SRS data could play a significant role in designing the Allocated Zones for Aquaculture, assisting policy makers and regulators in including aquaculture within maritime spatial planning.

Maritime Spatial Planning (MSP) promotes the sustainable human activities development and uses in the marine space, playing a role in their effective management. The enhancement of connectivity is crucial for the conservation of biodiversity and landscape planning. Ecological Corridors (ECs) are an important type of connectivity for biodiversity conservation in fragmented habitats. The EU Biodiversity Strategy 2030 includes ECs into the network of protected areas and allows for the creation of additional protected areas. MSP studies considering ECs remain still lacking, especially for the design of networks between Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) and Other Effective area-based Conservation Measures (OECMs). In this paper, knowledge, and tools for investigating marine ECs were reviewed, with a systematic bibliometric analysis to summarize the current scientific research. Previous studies integrating ecological connectivity into planning for marine conservation have focused on models of larval dispersal, adult movements, and dispersal of single species by using benthic habitat proxies. Few studies were found on ECs in marine environments: in the coral Caribbean reef systems in the Gulf of Mexico; within benthic habitats along the Pacific coast of Canada; between MPAs in British Columbia (Canada); and by analyzing migratory species in the Yangtze estuary (China). Commonly used approaches to project and map ECs in marine environments are least-cost and circuit theories allowing to incorporate movement with cost or resistance to movement, depending on species and preferred habitats. The systematic bibliometric analysis returned 25 studies, most of which were from North America (40%) and European countries (36%) and the largest share of papers (68%) from 2018 to 2022. This review pinpointed the need of integrating different disciplines to investigate connectivity and the need by policymakers and practitioners to recognize the importance of ecological connectivity, even there are significant challenges for integrating connectivity into policies, planning, and conservation.