In this paper we analyse the spatial footprint and temporal clustering of extreme sea level and skew surge events around the UK coast over the last 100 years (1915–2014). The vast majority of the extreme sea level events are generated by moderate, rather than extreme skew surges, combined with spring astronomical high tides. We distinguish four broad categories of spatial footprints of events and the distinct storm tracks that generated them. There have been rare events when extreme levels have occurred along two unconnected coastal regions during the same storm. The events that occur in closest succession (<4 days) typically impact different stretches of coastline. The spring/neap tidal cycle prevents successive extreme sea level events from happening within 4–8 days. Finally, the 2013/14 season was highly unusual in the context of the last 100 years from an extreme sea level perspective.
Impacts of storm clustering on beach/dune morphodynamics were investigated by applying the state-of-the-art numerical model XBeach to Formby Point (Sefton coast, UK). The adopted storm cluster was established by analysing the observed winter storms from December 2013 to January 2014 using a storm threshold wave height. The first storm that occurred during this period is regarded as exceptionally intense, and the occurrence of such a cluster of events is very unusual. A 1D model was setup for the highly dynamic cross-shore at Formby Point. After initial calibration of the model parameters against available poststorm profile data, the model was used for the simulation of the storm cluster. It was assumed that no beach recovery occurred between adjacent storms due to the very short time intervals between storms. As a result, the final predicted post-storm profile of the previous storm was used as the pre-storm profile of the subsequent storm. The predicted evolution during each storm was influenced by the previous storms in the cluster. Due to the clustering effect, the bed level change is not proportional to the storm power of events within the cluster, as it\ud would be in an individual storm case. Initially, the large storm events interact with the multibared foreshore enabling the subsequent weaker storms to influence the upper beach and lower dune system. This results in greater change at the dune toe level also during less severe subsequent storms. It is also shown that the usual water level threshold used to define dune erosion is over predicted by about 1 m for extreme storm conditions. The predicted profile evolution provides useful insights into the morphodynamic processes of beach/dune systems during a storm cluster (using Formby Point as an example), which is very useful for quantifying the clustering effects to develop tools for coastal management
Coastal flooding caused by extreme sea levels can produce devastating and wide-ranging consequences. The ‘SurgeWatch’ v1.0 database systematically documents and assesses the consequences of historical coastal flood events around the UK. The original database was inevitably biased due to the inconsistent spatial and temporal coverage of sea-level observations utilised. Therefore, we present an improved version integrating a variety of ‘soft’ data such as journal papers, newspapers, weather reports, and social media. SurgeWatch2.0 identifies 329 coastal flooding events from 1915 to 2016, a more than fivefold increase compared to the 59 events in v1.0. Moreover, each flood event is now ranked using a multi-level categorisation based on inundation, transport disruption, costs, and fatalities: from 1 (Nuisance) to 6 (Disaster). For the 53 most severe events ranked Category 3 and above, an accompanying event description based upon the Source-Pathway-Receptor-Consequence framework was produced. Thus, SurgeWatch v2.0 provides the most comprehensive and coherent historical record of UK coastal flooding. It is designed to be a resource for research, planning, management and education.
Coastal flooding caused by extreme sea levels can be devastating, with long-lasting and diverse consequences. Historically, the UK has suffered major flooding events, and at present 2.5 million properties and £150 billion of assets are potentially exposed to coastal flooding. However, no formal system is in place to catalogue which storms and high sea level events progress to coastal flooding. Furthermore, information on the extent of flooding and associated damages is not systematically documented nationwide. Here we present a database and online tool called ‘SurgeWatch’, which provides a systematic UK-wide record of high sea level and coastal flood events over the last 100 years (1915-2014). Using records from the National Tide Gauge Network, with a dataset of exceedance probabilities and meteorological fields, SurgeWatch captures information of 96 storms during this period, the highest sea levels they produced, and the occurrence and severity of coastal flooding. The data are presented to be easily assessable and understandable to a range of users including, scientists, coastal engineers, managers and planners and concerned citizens.