The Montenegrin climate is characterised as very heterogeneous due to its complex topography. The viticultural heritage, dating back to before the Roman empire, is settled in a Mediterranean climate region, located south of the capital Podgorica, where climate conditions favour red wine production. However, an overall increase in warmer and drier periods affects traditional viticulture. The present study aims to discuss climate change impacts on Montenegrin viticulture. Bioclimatic indices, ensembled from five climate models, were analysed for both historical (1981–2010) and future (2041–2070) periods upon three socio-economic pathways: SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5. CHELSA (≈1 km) was the selected dataset for this analysis. Obtained results for all scenarios have shown the suppression of baseline conditions for viticulture. The average summer temperature might reach around 29.5 °C, and the growing season average temperature could become higher than 23.5 °C, advancing phenological events. The Winkler index is estimated to range from 2900 °C up to 3100 °C, which is too hot for viticulture. Montenegrin viticulture requires the application of adaptation measures focused on reducing temperature-increase impacts. The implementation of adaptation measures shall start in the coming years, to assure the lasting productivity and sustainability of viticulture.

Montenegro is located on the Balkan Peninsula. Near the coast and valleys, Mediterranean conditions have allowed Montenegro to develop a vinicultural heritage, which is currently threatened by climate change. This study aimed to expose the impacts of climate change on Montenegrin viticulture, using a high-resolution CHELSA database (≈ 1 km). Climate data was analysed for the historical period 1981-2010 and the future period of 2071-2100. The projections included 5 Global Climate Models (GCM) and 3 Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios: SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5. The selected indices for this analysis were GDD10, Winkler Index, Mean annual temperature, Growing season average temperature, Total annual precipitation and Total growing season precipitation. Across the different scenarios, the results show distinct differences concerning the Lake Skadar basin and the Montenegrin Coast, the warmest regions of Montenegro. The mean annual temperature increase will be from 2 °C to 5 °C, and the total annual precipitation might decrease to 250 mm per year (12%). For traditional viticulture, the maximum Climate normal of the Winkler index value is 2700 °C per year. For Montenegro, the Winkler Index will reach from 2800 to 3600 °C per year and is also predicted to expand the growing season, with an increasing number of days with an average temperature above 10°C. These results show that climate change is threatening Montenegrin viticulture, and so the application of adaptation measures in the sector is mandatory to preserve its legacy. However, the results depict the emergence of new areas suitable for viticulture. Acknowledgements/Funding: This research was supported by FCT –Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology, under the projects UID/04033: Centro de Investigação e de Tecnologias Agro-Ambientais e Biológicas and LA/P/0126/2020 (https://doi.org/10.54499/LA/P/0126/2020), and by the MONTEVITIS project “Integrating a comprehensive Europe-an approach for climate change mitigation and adaptation in Montenegro viticulture”, funded by the European Union’s Horizon Europe, the Framework Programme for Research and Innovation (2021–2027), under grant agreement nº 101059461.