Background: Multivariate predictive models play a crucial role in enhancing our understanding of complex biological systems and in developing innovative, replicable tools for translational medical research. However, the complexity of machine learning methods and extensive data preprocessing and feature engineering pipelines can lead to overfitting and poor generalizability. An unbiased evaluation of predictive models necessitates external validation, which involves testing the finalized model on independent data. Despite its importance, external validation is often neglected in practice due to the associated costs. Results: Here we propose that, for maximal credibility, model discovery and external validation should be separated by the public disclosure (e.g., preregistration) of feature processing steps and model weights. Furthermore, we introduce a novel approach to optimize the trade-off between efforts spent on model discovery and external validation in such studies. We show on data involving more than 3,000 participants from four different datasets that, for any “sample size budget,” the proposed adaptive splitting approach can successfully identify the optimal time to stop model discovery so that predictive performance is maximized without risking a low-powered, and thus inconclusive, external validation. Conclusion: The proposed design and splitting approach (implemented in the Python package “AdaptiveSplit”) may contribute to addressing issues of replicability, effect size inflation, and generalizability in predictive modeling studies.

In recent years, the use of psychedelic drugs to study brain dynamics has flourished due to the unique opportunity they offer to investigate the neural mechanisms of conscious perception. Unfortunately, there are many difficulties to conduct experiments on pharmacologically-induced hallucinations, especially regarding ethical and legal issues. In addition, it is difficult to isolate the neural effects of psychedelic states from other physiological effects elicited by the drug ingestion. Here, we used the DeepDream algorithm to create visual stimuli that mimic the perception of hallucinatory states. Participants were first exposed to a regular video, followed by its modified version, while recording electroencephalography (EEG). Results showed that the frontal region’s activity was characterized by a higher entropy and lower complexity during the modified video, with respect to the regular one, at different time scales. Moreover, we found an increased undirected connectivity and a greater level of entropy in functional connectivity networks elicited by the modified video. These findings suggest that DeepDream and psychedelic drugs induced similar altered brain patterns and demonstrate the potential of adopting this method to study altered perceptual phenomenology in neuroimaging research.

Understanding dependencies between brain functioning and cognition is a challenging task which might require more than applying standard statistical models to neural and behavioural measures to be accomplished. Recent developments in computational modelling have demonstrated the advantage to formally account for reciprocal relations between mathematical models of cognition and brain functional, or structural, characteristics to relate neural and cognitive parameters on a model-based perspective. This would allow to account for both neural and behavioural data simultaneously by providing a joint probabilistic model for the two sources of information. In the present work we proposed an architecture for jointly modelling the reciprocal relation between behavioural and neural information in the context of risky decision-making. More precisely, we offered a way to relate Diffusion Tensor Imaging data to cognitive parameters of a computational model accounting for behavioural outcomes in the popular Balloon Analogue Risk Task (BART). Results show that the proposed architecture has the potential to account for individual differences in task performances and brain structural features by letting individual-level parameters to be modelled by a joint distribution connecting both sources of information. Such a joint modelling framework can offer interesting insights in the development of computational models able to investigate correspondence between decision-making and brain structural connectivity.

Multivariate predictive models play a crucial role in enhancing our understanding of complex biological systems and in developing innovative, replicable tools for translational medical research. However, the complexity of machine learning methods and extensive data pre-processing and feature engineering pipelines can lead to overfitting and poor generalizability. An unbiased evaluation of predictive models necessitates external validation, which involves testing the finalized model on independent data. Despite its importance, external validation is often neglected in practice due to the associated costs. Here we propose that, for maximal credibility, model discovery and external validation should be separated by the public disclosure (e.g. pre-registration) of feature processing steps and model weights. Furthermore, we introduce a novel approach to optimize the trade-off between efforts spent on training and external validation in such studies. We show on data involving more than 3000 participants from four different datasets that, for any “sample size budget”, the proposed adaptive splitting approach can successfully identify the optimal time to stop model discovery so that predictive performance is maximized without risking a low powered, and thus inconclusive, external validation. The proposed design and splitting approach (implemented in the Python package “AdaptiveSplit”) may contribute to addressing issues of replicability, effect size inflation and generalizability in predictive modeling studies.

Statistical learning of sensory patterns can lead to predictive neural processes enhancing stimulus perception and enabling fast deviancy detection. Predictive processes have been extensively demonstrated when environmental statistical regularities are relevant to task execution. Preliminary evidence indicates that statistical learning can even occur independently of task relevance and top-down attention, although the temporal profile and neural mechanisms underlying sensory predictions and error signals induced by statistical learning of incidental sensory regularities remain unclear. In our study, we adopted an implicit sensory conditioning paradigm that elicited the generation of specific perceptual priors in relation to task-irrelevant audio–visual associations, while recording Electroencephalography (EEG). Our results showed that learning task-irrelevant associations between audio–visual stimuli resulted in anticipatory neural responses to predictive auditory stimuli conveying anticipatory signals of expected visual stimulus presence or absence. Moreover, we observed specific modulation of cortical responses to probabilistic visual stimulus presentation or omission. Pattern similarity analysis indicated that predictive auditory stimuli tended to resemble the response to expected visual stimulus presence or absence. Remarkably, Hierarchical Gaussian filter modeling estimating dynamic changes of prediction error signals in relation to differential probabilistic occurrences of audio–visual stimuli further demonstrated instantiation of predictive neural signals by showing distinct neural processing of prediction error in relation to violation of expected visual stimulus presence or absence. Overall, our findings indicated that statistical learning of non-salient and task-irrelevant perceptual regularities could induce the generation of neural priors at the time of predictive stimulus presentation, possibly conveying sensory-specific information about the predicted consecutive stimulus.