As mass vaccination campaigns against coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) commence worldwide, vaccine effectiveness needs to be assessed for a range of outcomes across diverse populations in a noncontrolled setting. In this study, data from Israel’s largest health care organization were used to evaluate the effectiveness of the BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine. All persons who were newly vaccinated during the period from December 20, 2020, to February 1, 2021, were matched to unvaccinated controls in a 1:1 ratio according to demographic and clinical characteristics. Study outcomes included documented infection with the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), symptomatic Covid-19, Covid-19–related hospitalization, severe illness, and death. We estimated vaccine effectiveness for each outcome as one minus the risk ratio, using the Kaplan–Meier estimator. Each study group included 596,618 persons. Estimated vaccine effectiveness for the study outcomes at days 14 through 20 after the first dose and at 7 or more days after the second dose was as follows: for documented infection, 46% (95% confidence interval [CI], 40 to 51) and 92% (95% CI, 88 to 95); for symptomatic Covid-19, 57% (95% CI, 50 to 63) and 94% (95% CI, 87 to 98); for hospitalization, 74% (95% CI, 56 to 86) and 87% (95% CI, 55 to 100); and for severe disease, 62% (95% CI, 39 to 80) and 92% (95% CI, 75 to 100), respectively. Estimated effectiveness in preventing death from Covid-19 was 72% (95% CI, 19 to 100) for days 14 through 20 after the first dose. Estimated effectiveness in specific subpopulations assessed for documented infection and symptomatic Covid-19 was consistent across age groups, with potentially slightly lower effectiveness in persons with multiple coexisting conditions. This study in a nationwide mass vaccination setting suggests that the BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine is effective for a wide range of Covid-19–related outcomes, a finding consistent with that of the randomized trial.

At the COVID-19 pandemic onset, when individual-level data of COVID-19 patients were not yet available, there was already a need for risk predictors to support prevention and treatment decisions. Here, we report a hybrid strategy to create such a predictor, combining the development of a baseline severe respiratory infection risk predictor and a post-processing method to calibrate the predictions to reported COVID-19 case-fatality rates. With the accumulation of a COVID-19 patient cohort, this predictor is validated to have good discrimination (area under the receiver-operating characteristics curve of 0.943) and calibration (markedly improved compared to that of the baseline predictor). At a 5% risk threshold, 15% of patients are marked as high-risk, achieving a sensitivity of 88%. We thus demonstrate that even at the onset of a pandemic, shrouded in epidemiologic fog of war, it is possible to provide a useful risk predictor, now widely used in a large healthcare organization.

Limited evidence is available on the real-world effectiveness of the BNT162b2 vaccine against coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) and specifically against infection with the omicron variant among children 5 to 11 years of age. Using data from the largest health care organization in Israel, we identified a cohort of children 5 to 11 years of age who were vaccinated on or after November 23, 2021, and matched them with unvaccinated controls to estimate the vaccine effectiveness of BNT162b2 among newly vaccinated children during the omicron wave. Vaccine effectiveness against documented severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection and symptomatic Covid-19 was estimated after the first and second vaccine doses. The cumulative incidence of each outcome in the two study groups through January 7, 2022, was estimated with the use of the Kaplan–Meier estimator, and vaccine effectiveness was calculated as 1 minus the risk ratio. Vaccine effectiveness was also estimated in age subgroups. Among 136,127 eligible children who had been vaccinated during the study period, 94,728 were matched with unvaccinated controls. The estimated vaccine effectiveness against documented infection was 17% (95% confidence interval [CI], 7 to 25) at 14 to 27 days after the first dose and 51% (95% CI, 39 to 61) at 7 to 21 days after the second dose. The absolute risk difference between the study groups at days 7 to 21 after the second dose was 1905 events per 100,000 persons (95% CI, 1294 to 2440) for documented infection and 599 events per 100,000 persons (95% CI, 296 to 897) for symptomatic Covid-19. The estimated vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic Covid-19 was 18% (95% CI, −2 to 34) at 14 to 27 days after the first dose and 48% (95% CI, 29 to 63) at 7 to 21 days after the second dose. We observed a trend toward higher vaccine effectiveness in the youngest age group (5 or 6 years of age) than in the oldest age group (10 or 11 years of age). Our findings suggest that as omicron was becoming the dominant variant, two doses of the BNT162b2 messenger RNA vaccine provided moderate protection against documented SARS-CoV-2 infection and symptomatic Covid-19 in children 5 to 11 years of age. (Funded by the European Union through the VERDI project and others.)

Bacillus Calmette–Guerin (BCG) is a live attenuated form of Mycobacterium bovis that was developed 100 years ago as a vaccine against tuberculosis (TB) and has been used ever since to vaccinate children globally. It has also been used as the first-line treatment in patients with nonmuscle invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC), through repeated intravesical applications. Numerous studies have shown that BCG induces off-target immune effects in various pathologies. Accumulating data argue for the critical role of the immune system in the course of neurodegenerative diseases such as Alzheimer’s disease (AD) and Parkinson’s disease (PD). In this study, we tested whether repeated exposure to BCG during the treatment of NMIBC is associated with the risk of developing AD and PD. We presented a multi-center retrospective cohort study with patient data collected between 2000 and 2019 that included 12,185 bladder cancer (BC) patients, of which 2301 BCG-treated patients met all inclusion criteria, with a follow-up of 3.5 to 7 years. We considered the diagnosis date of AD and nonvascular dementia cases for BC patients. The BC patients were partitioned into those who underwent a transurethral resection of the bladder tumor followed by BCG therapy, and a disjoint group that had not received such treatment. By applying Cox proportional hazards (PH) regression and competing for risk analyses, we found that BCG treatment was associated with a significantly reduced risk of developing AD, especially in the population aged 75 years or older. The older population (≥75 years, 1578 BCG treated, and 5147 controls) showed a hazard ratio (HR) of 0.726 (95% CI: 0.529–0.996; p-value = 0.0473). While in a hospital-based cohort, BCG treatment resulted in an HR of 0.416 (95% CI: 0.203–0.853; p-value = 0.017), indicating a 58% lower risk of developing AD. The risk of developing PD showed the same trend with a 28% reduction in BCG-treated patients, while no BCG beneficial effect was observed for other age-related events such as Type 2 diabetes (T2D) and stroke. We attributed BCG’s beneficial effect on neurodegenerative diseases to a possible activation of long-term nonspecific immune effects. We proposed a prospective study in elderly people for testing intradermic BCG inoculation as a potential protective agent against AD and PD.

Evidence regarding the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccine in patients with impaired immunity is limited. Initial observations suggest a lower humoral response in these patients. We evaluated the relative effectiveness of the mRNA BNT162b2 vaccine in patients with hematological neoplasms compared with matched controls. Data on patients with hematological neoplasms after 2 vaccine doses were extracted and matched 1:1 with vaccinated controls. Subpopulation analyses focused on patients receiving therapy for hematological neoplasm, patients without treatment who were only followed, and recipients of specific treatments. The analysis focused on COVID-19 outcomes from days 7 through 43 after the second vaccine dose in these areas: documented COVID-19 infection by polymerase chain reaction; symptomatic infection; hospitalizations; severe COVID-19 disease; and COVID-19–related death. In a population of 4.7 million insured people, 32 516 patients with hematological neoplasms were identified, of whom 5017 were receiving therapy for an active disease. Vaccinated patients with hematological neoplasms, compared with vaccinated matched controls, had an increased risk of documented infections (relative risk [RR] 1.60, 95% CI 1.12-2.37); symptomatic COVID-19 (RR 1.72, 95% CI 1.05-2.85); COVID-19–related hospitalizations (RR 3.13, 95% CI 1.68-7.08); severe COVID-19 (RR 2.27, 95% CI 1.18-5.19); and COVID-19–related death (RR 1.66, 95% CI 0.72-4.47). Limiting the analysis to patients on hematological treatments showed a higher increased risk. This analysis shows that vaccinated patients with hematological neoplasms, in particular patients receiving treatment, suffer from COVID-19 outcomes more than vaccinated individuals with intact immune system. Ways to enhance COVID-19 immunity in this patient population, such as additional doses, should be explored.