Agricultural intensification is increasing global demand for water, with groundwater especially susceptible given its year-round reliability. Climate change impacts on groundwater recharge exacerbate uncertainties for future access and use, especially for large aquifers across alluvial plains such as the Indus Basin of Pakistan. To generate better understanding of climate change impacts on groundwater balances in such contexts, we used MODFLOW 2005 to quantify the groundwater budget of the Northern Rohri Canal Command Area under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 climatic scenarios, while also taking climatic regionalisation into account. Under a baseline scenario, total annual pumping in the northern Rohri command was estimated to be 3.619 billion cubic metres (BCM), and the total net loss in storage over the simulation period from October 2010 to April 2014 was estimated at 1.244 BCM per year. By 2047, net decline in storage is projected to more than double to 2.185 per year under RCP 4.5 scenario and 2.214 under RCP 8.5. Our estimates suggest that a sustainable yield across the command area should be managed at approximately 3 ± 0.3 BCM per year to ensure sufficient adaptive reserves of groundwater for access during times of drought and inadequate surface supply, while also reducing waterlogging impacts from high watertables. This first-time estimate of sustainable yield provides irrigation system managers with an overall guide from which divisional-scale measures to achieve the goal can be identified through stakeholder engagement.

The global demand for food is growing with the population and urbanization, which puts pressure on water resources, which need assessing and quantifying water requirements. Adopting efficient irrigation methods to optimize water use is essential in this situation. In this study, crop water productivity (CWP) of major crops in the Rohri canal command area was estimated by the ratio of yield and actual evapotranspiration (ET_a). Analyzing the CWP of major crops, water scarcity challenges can be tackled by selecting the most feasible irrigation methods. However, ET_a was calculated and aggregated for all four stages of the crop growth period: initial, crop development, flowering stage, and maturity seasons. The crop yield data were obtained from the districts’ agricultural statistics. For this purpose, evapotranspiration products of Landsat 5 and 8 were downloaded from Earth Engine Evapotranspiration Flux (EEFlux). Landsat images were processed in a GIS environment to calculate ET_a. The approach suggests developing a CWP database for major crops like wheat, cotton, and rice to improve irrigation water management. The objectives of this study are to estimate and analyze the difference in the CWP and evapotranspiration of major crops for the Rabi and Kharif seasons with high and moderate flows during 1998–2019. It comprises nine districts of Sindh that come under the Rohri Canal command area. To analyze the difference in CWP between the Rabi and Kharif seasons for all study crops of the seasons of Rabi (2014–2015 and 2016–2017) and Kharif (1998 and 2017). The growing periods for wheat, cotton, and rice in the Rohri Canal command area are 160, 195, and 180 days, respectively. The estimated ET_a of the Rohri canal command area and CWP were in good agreement with the literature-reported values. Hence, enhanced agricultural productivity can be achieved by making considerable investments to improve agricultural research and extension systems.