Genomic selection can increase the rate of genetic gain in crops through accumulation of positive alleles and reduce phenotyping costs by shortening the breeding cycle time. We performed genomic prediction for resistance to wheat rusts in tetraploid wheat accessions using three cross-validation with the objective of predicting: (1) rust resistance when individuals are not tested in all environments/locations, (2) the performance of lines across years, and (3) adult plant resistance (APR) of lines with bivariate models. The rationale for the latter is that seedling assays are faster and could increase prediction accuracy for APR. Predictions were derived from adult plant and seedling responses for leaf rust (Lr), stem rust (Sr) and stripe rust (Yr) in a panel of 391 accessions grown across multiple years and locations and genotyped using 16,483 single nucleotide polymorphisms. Different Bayesian models and genomic best linear unbiased prediction yielded similar accuracies for all traits. Site and year prediction accuracies for Lr and Yr ranged between 0.56–0.71 for Lr and 0.51–0.56 for Yr. While prediction accuracy for Sr was variable across different sites, accuracies for Yr were similar across different years and sites. The changes in accuracies can reflect higher genotype × environment (G × E) interactions due to climate or pathogenic variation. The use of seedling assays in genomic prediction was underscored by significant positive genetic correlations between all stage resistance (ASR) and APR (Lr: 0.45, Sr: 0.65, Yr: 0.50). Incorporating seedling phenotypes in the bivariate genomic approach increased prediction accuracy for all three rust diseases. Our work suggests that the underlying plant-host response to pathogens in the field and greenhouse screens is genetically correlated, but likely highly polygenic and therefore difficult to detect at the individual gene level. Overall, genomic prediction accuracies were in the range suitable for selection in early generations of the breeding cycle.

Historically, end-product quality testing has been costly and required large flour samples; therefore, it was generally implemented in the late phases of variety development, imposing a huge cost on the breeding effort and effectiveness. High genetic correlations of end-product quality traits with higher throughput and nondestructive testing technologies, such as near-infrared (NIR), could enable early-stage testing and effective selection of these highly valuable traits in a multi-trait genomic prediction model. We studied the impact on prediction accuracy in genomic best linear unbiased prediction (GBLUP) of adding NIR-predicted secondary traits for six end-product quality traits (crumb yellowness, water absorption, texture hardness, flour yield, grain protein, flour swelling volume). Bread wheat lines (1,400–1,900) were measured across 8 years (2012–2019) for six end-product quality traits with standard laboratory assays and with NIR, which were combined to generate predicted data for approximately 27,000 lines. All lines were genotyped with the Infinium™ Wheat Barley 40K BeadChip and imputed using exome sequence data. End-product and NIR phenotypes were genetically correlated (0.5–0.83, except for flour swelling volume 0.19). Prediction accuracies of end-product traits ranged between 0.28 and 0.64 and increased by 30% through the inclusion of NIR-predicted data compared to single-trait analysis. There was a high correlation between the multi-trait prediction accuracy and genetic correlations between end-product and NIR-predicted data (0.69–0.77). Our forward prediction validation revealed a gradual increase in prediction accuracy when adding more years to the multi-trait model. Overall, we achieved genomic prediction accuracy at a level that enables selection for end-product quality traits early in the breeding cycle.