Background: Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are currently the leading cause of premature death worldwide. Model-based early detection of high-risk populations for CVD is the key to CVD prevention. Thus, this research aimed to use machine learning (ML) algorithms to establish a CVD prediction model based on routine physical examination indicators suitable for the Xinjiang rural population.Method: The research cohort data collection was divided into two stages. The first stage involved a baseline survey from 2010 to 2012, with follow-up ending in December 2017. The second-phase baseline survey was conducted from September to December 2016, and follow-up ended in August 2021. A total of 12,692 participants (10,407 Uyghur and 2,285 Kazak) were included in the study. Screening predictors and establishing variable subsets were based on least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (Lasso) regression, logistic regression forward partial likelihood estimation (FLR), random forest (RF) feature importance, and RF variable importance. The selected subset of variables was compared with L1 regularized logistic regression (L1-LR), RF, support vector machine (SVM), and AdaBoost algorithm to establish a CVD prediction model suitable for this population. The incidence of CVD in this population was then analyzed.Result: After 4.94 years of follow-up, a total of 1,176 people were diagnosed with CVD (cumulative incidence: 9.27%). In the comparison of discrimination and calibration, the prediction performance of the subset of variables selected based on FLR was better than that of other models. Combining the results of discrimination, calibration, and clinical validity, the prediction model based on L1-LR had the best prediction performance. Age, systolic blood pressure, low-density lipoprotein-L/high-density lipoproteins-C, triglyceride blood glucose index, body mass index, and body adiposity index were all important predictors of the onset of CVD in the Xinjiang rural population.Conclusion: In the Xinjiang rural population, the prediction model based on L1-LR had the best prediction performance.

Polybrominated diphenyl ethers are known to be toxic and impair thyroid function. However, the underlying molecular mechanisms are not well understood. We constructed a female Sprague-Dawley rat model to evaluate the role of endoplasmic reticulum stress, apoptosis and autophagy in 2,2',4,4'-tetrabromodiphenylether (PBDE-47) induced thyroid toxicity. In the brain development spurt period (postnatal day 10), rats were treated with PBDE-47 (0, 1, 5, 10 mg/kg bw, i.g). Two addition groups were administered with 4-Phenylbutyric acid, an endoplasmic reticulum stress modulator, to reverse PBDE-47-induced thyroid toxicity. Our results demonstrated that PBDE-47 significantly decreased serum thyroid stimulating hormone levels, induced histologic changes in thyroid tissues, increased the percentage of cell apoptosis and expression levels of C/EBP-homologous protein, caspase 3, glucose-regulated protein 78, inositol-requiring enzyme 1, and autophagy-related proteins Beclin1 and 1A/1B-light chain 3. Besides of decreased serum thyroid stimulating hormone levels, all these changes were reversed by 4-Phenylbutyric acid. Taken together, these data indicate that, PBDE-47 damages the thyroid tissues by triggering endoplasmic reticulum stress, apoptosis and autophagy.

Background: This study aimed to assess the association of baseline insulin resistance (IR) surrogates and their longitudinal trajectories with cardiovascular diseases (CVD) to provide a useful reference for preventing CVD.Methods: This study was a prospective cohort study conducted in the 51st Regiment of the Third Division of Xinjiang Corps. A total of 6362 participants were recruited in 2016 to conduct the baseline survey, and the follow-up surveys in 2019, 2020, 2021, and 2022. The Kaplan–Meier method was used to estimate the cumulative incidence of CVD according to the baseline IR surrogates of metabolic insulin resistance score (METS-IR) and triglyceride-glucose (TyG) index. Cox regression models were used to assess the association between the baseline IR surrogates and CVD. The impact of the longitudinal trajectories of the IR surrogates on CVD was analyzed after excluding those with IR surrogate data measured ≤2 times. Based on the group-based trajectory model (GBTM), the trajectory patterns of IR surrogates were determined. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to estimate the cumulative incidence of CVD in each trajectory group of METS-IR and TyG index. Cox regression models were used to analyze the association between different trajectory groups of each index and CVD. In addition, the Framingham model was utilized to evaluate whether the addition of the baseline IR surrogates increased the predictive potential of the model.Results: Baseline data analysis included 4712 participants. During a median follow-up of 5.66 years, 572 CVD events were recorded (mean age, 39.42 ± 13.67 years; males, 42.9%). The cumulative CVD incidence increased with the ascending baseline METS-IR and TyG index quartiles (Q1–Q4). The hazard ratio and 95% confidence interval for CVD risk in Q4 of the METS-IR and TyG index were 1.79 (1.25, 2.58) and 1.66 (1.28, 2.17), respectively, when compared with Q1. 4343 participants were included in the trajectory analysis, based on the longitudinal change patterns of the METS-IR and TyG index, the following three trajectory groups were identified: low-increasing, moderate-stable, and elevated-increasing groups. Multivariate Cox regression revealed that the hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) for CVD risk in the elevated-increasing trajectory group of the METS-IR and TyG index was 2.13 (1.48, 3.06) and 2.63 (1.68, 4.13), respectively, when compared with the low-rising group. The C-index, integrated discrimination improvement value, and net reclassification improvement value were enhanced after adding the baseline METS-IR and TyG index values to the Framingham model (P<0.05).Conclusions: Elevated baseline IR surrogates and their higher long-term trajectories were strongly associated with a high risk of CVD incidence in Xinjiang’s rural areas. Regular METS-IR and TyG index monitoring can aid in the early detection of CVD-risk groups.

In 2020, a group of international experts proposed a new term ‘metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease’ (MAFLD) to replace ‘non-alcoholic fatty liver disease’. This study aimed to describe the epidemic characteristics of MAFLD, incidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD), and relationship between MAFLD and incident CVD. In 2016, 12,794 Uyghur adults from Kashgar, Xinjiang, were grouped according to the presence or absence of MAFLD. The primary outcome was the occurrence of CVD events. Fatty liver was diagnosed using ultrasound. The prevalence of MAFLD was 16.55%. After excluding patients with previous CVD, 11,444 participants were followed up for a median period of 4.7 years. During the follow-up period, the overall CVD incidence was 10.40% (1190/11,444). The incidence of CVD in the patients with MAFLD was significantly higher than that in the non-MAFLD patients (18.38% vs. 9.02%, p < 0.001; multivariable-adjusted hazard ratio = 1.37, 95% CI = 1.20–1.56). The prevalence of MAFLD was relatively low, whereas the incidence of CVD was relatively high among the Uyghur adults in rural Xinjiang. Individuals with MAFLD have a higher risk of developing CVD independent of traditional cardiovascular risk factors, obesity, type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), and dyslipidaemia.

Background: This study aimed to describe the prevalence of metabolically healthy obesity (MHO) and metabolically unhealthy normal weight (MUNW) rural adults in Xinjiang and to explore their influencing factors. Methods: We selected 13,525 Uyghur, Kazakh and Han participants in Kashi, Yili and Shihezi areas in Xinjiang from 2009 to 2010. Weight status was classified according to body mass index. Metabolic phenotype was further defined based on the National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel III criteria. Results: The prevalence of normal weight, overweight, and obesity were 51.6, 30.2, and 14.4%, respectively. The mean age of the population was 45.04 years. The prevalence of MHO was 5.5% overall and was 38.5% among obese participants. The prevalence of MUNW was 15.5% overall and was 30.1% among normal weight participants. A metabolically healthy phenotype among obese individuals was positively associated with females and vegetable consumption ≥4 plates per week. However, this was inversely associated with higher age, red meat consumption ≥2 kg per week, and larger waist circumference (WC). Conversely, a metabolically unhealthy phenotype among normal-weight individuals was positively associated with higher age, red meat consumption ≥2 kg per week, and larger WC; this was however inversely associated with vegetable consumption ≥4 plates per week. Conclusions: The prevalence of MHO among obese adults in Xinjiang is higher than that of Han adults, while the prevalence of MUNW among normal weight adults is lower than that among Han adults. In obese and normal weight participants, higher age, more red meat consumption, and larger WC increase the risk of metabolic abnormality, and more vegetable consumption reduces the risk of metabolic abnormality.

With the increase in aging and cardiovascular risk factors, the morbidity and mortality of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD), represented by ischemic heart disease and stroke, continue to rise in China. For better prevention and intervention, relevant guidelines recommend using predictive models for early detection of ASCVD high-risk groups. Therefore, this study aims to establish a population ASCVD prediction model in rural areas of Xinjiang using survival analysis. Baseline cohort data were collected from September to December 2016 and followed up till June 2022. A total of 7975 residents (4054 males and 3920 females) aged 30–74 years were included in the analysis. The data set was divided according to different genders, and the training and test sets ratio was 7:3 for different genders. A Cox regression, Lasso-Cox regression, and random survival forest (RSF) model were established in the training set. The model parameters were determined by cross-validation and parameter tuning and then verified in the training set. Traditional ASCVD prediction models (Framingham and China-PAR models) were constructed in the test set. Different models' discrimination and calibration degrees were compared to find the optimal prediction model for this population according to different genders and further analyze the risk factors of ASCVD. After 5.79 years of follow-up, 873 ASCVD events with a cumulative incidence of 10.19% were found (7.57% in men and 14.44% in women). By comparing the discrimination and calibration degrees of each model, the RSF showed the best prediction performance in males and females (male: Area Under Curve (AUC) 0.791 (95%CI 0.767,0.813), C statistic 0.780 (95%CI 0.730,0.829), Brier Score (BS):0.060, female: AUC 0.759 (95%CI 0.734,0.783) C statistic was 0.737 (95%CI 0.702,0.771), BS:0.110). Age, systolic blood pressure (SBP), apolipoprotein B (APOB), Visceral Adiposity Index (VAI), hip circumference (HC), and plasma arteriosclerosis index (AIP) are important predictors of ASCVD in the rural population of Xinjiang. The performance of the ASCVD prediction model based on the RSF algorithm is better than that based on Cox regression, Lasso-Cox, and the traditional ASCVD prediction model in the rural population of Xinjiang.